Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lost the eye on infared again. ERC? Looked a little like that ring of convection just kind of collapsed into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Once we knew at 12z yesterday this was over.. I slept thru the night last night. Amazing really lol yeah, I was done too when yesterday's Euro continued the OTS track-one that model locks in, it's usually over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Odd response by someone who has been so opposed to subforums all these years...and now wants to only discuss the play by play of a storm that is likely going to have no impact on New England in the New England subforum. I'm fine talking about the storm, but this thread was originally about how it might impact us and not really a PBP thread...and I was pointing out that we have some of the better posters for tropical systems posting in a designated thread in the main forum. I don't think I'd be moving those OT posts in the winter either...it would be comparable to people talking about a winter storm that is like 500 miles away from New England after all the models trended away from a hit. Like I said, talk away...but lets not pretend this is a hugely important thread for our subforum now...given the impacts are likely to be nothing outside of some good body surfing in front of Taylor Swift's pad. too many rocks, better at Dickies beach a mile East, but I still don't believe a word you typed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think Bermuda may end up having a crack at this. At the very least, the east coast of US and Canada will get some good swells and wave action. Sent from my iPhone Bermuda had a rough TC season last year, with two rapid-fire hurricane landfalls that both caused total power failures. As far as I'm aware, they're still trying to strengthen the battered infrastructure. Would be quite something for them to endure another hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 For others to see (compare this 12z to the more recent 18z GEFS I posted above). A little unnerving buck of the overwhelming guidance trends today. 11L_gefs_12z_10_01.png Congrats, Greenland. I hope someone from NHC emailed the head eskimo and advised a state of emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 if you look at the population of the Bahamas so far affected in terms of hurricane force winds, its approximately 7500 folks so far, as the storm has basically affected the least populated islands so far. however as it moves north (towards the more populated islands), that could change drastically depending on how far west it gets. probably the craziest thing ive read is the 10 people hanging out on Samana Cays without any good shelter (caught there on an expedition?), if those people survive, well I will be shocked, and if they do, what a story they will have to tell. It looks like it will miss Nassau and Grand Bahama which is the most populated area....those islands to the east are pretty sparse, which is good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Last I checked, main forum thread was discussing NHC international jurisdiction issues... The discussions have been disjointed and randomly placed, but that's sufficed given the unlikely impact. Sandy was front and center in the main forum if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Odd response by someone who has been so opposed to subforums all these years...and now wants to only discuss the play by play of a storm that is likely going to have no impact on New England in the New England subforum. I'm fine talking about the storm, but this thread was originally about how it might impact us and not really a PBP thread...and I was pointing out that we have some of the better posters for tropical systems posting in a designated thread in the main forum. I don't think I'd be moving those OT posts in the winter either...it would be comparable to people talking about a winter storm that is like 500 miles away from New England after all the models trended away from a hit. Like I said, talk away...but lets not pretend this is a hugely important thread for our subforum now...given the impacts are likely to be nothing outside of some good body surfing in front of Taylor Swift's pad. I really don't see the issue with chatting about an interesting and intense can that is leveling the Bahamas. Sure, it was intended for impact on sne, which there won't be, but who cares? The thread is defunct, anyway. No one is saying t his is the most important thread in the subform. The main thread has been pretty dead today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Meteorology has a long way to go, but part of me doesn't want it to improve to the point where we know everything that is going to happen before it happens. That is the best part! I know most mets won't agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Congrats, Greenland. I hope someone from NHC emailed the head eskimo and advised a state of emergency. Please refer to the riveting discussion on NHC jurisdiction in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I really don't see the issue with chatting about an interesting and intense can that is leveling the Bahamas. Sure, it was intended for impact on sne, which there won't be, but who cares? The thread is defunct, anyway. No one is saying t his is the most important thread in the subform. The main thread has been pretty dead today. Agreed that is why I didn't see a huge issue with talking about a previous Euro bust that happened to be in winter...but then got scolded by James for interfering with the important PBP discussion....I was informing him that we have a designated thread for that. I wasn't implying we can't do it in here...just that this thread was never really intended for that to begin with...it's sort of morphed into it's own banter thread as the threat of impact in SNE has been reduced to blurry Ginx pictures of surf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You can always have 2 threads for these major events as well, one banter and the other models and technical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Agreed that is why I didn't see a huge issue with talking about a previous Euro bust that happened to be in winter...but then got scolded by James for interfering with the important PBP discussion....I was informing him that we have a designated thread for that. I wasn't implying we can't do it in here...just that this thread was never really intended for that to begin with...it's sort of morphed into it's own banter thread as the threat of impact in SNE has been reduced to blurry Ginx pictures of surf. Yea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Will was clearly just telling James to STFU in response to James's post that everyone needed to STFU. I don't see where the confusion is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Will was clearly just telling James to STFU in response to James's post that everyone needed to STFU. I don't see where the confusion is. I think some people thought I was saying don't talk about the storm at all in here. Which I have clarified since then...so yeah. I'm fine with it...I mean what else are we going to talk about in here now? It's a minimal threat to SNE. If by some miracle it comes back, then the discussion would get more serious. (it was only yesterday that we said we would moderate this thread tough as long at it remained a threat...my how things change in 24 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Mid level magic. Maine was supposed to get a 2 foot blizzard and they basically got a dusting. E MA and parts of NH stole the show. Tho that was more of a monster QPF bust rather than an issue with storm track. But it was still very unusual for it to be that off. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 looks like pressure is up to 937mb or so.. maybe ERC on-going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The best line in this thread was the RI parking lot flooding from Ray. I LOL'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The best line in this thread was the RI parking lot flooding from Ray. I LOL'd. Indeed. That may have been the best part of Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 looks like pressure is up to 937mb or so.. maybe ERC on-going Well, now it will really get boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The best line in this thread was the RI parking lot flooding from Ray. I LOL'd. LOL RI? I don;t even remember completely...what did RI have to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Indeed. That may have been the best part of Joaquin. I was half tempted to work a "smoking cirrus" reference into the local ABC interview. But instead it consisted of talking about how close is close enough for some really big swell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 LOL RI? I don;t even remember completely...what did RI have to do with it? "Steve, you have biases in the opposite direction.....if a parking lot in RI floods, it's awe-inspiring." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was half tempted to work a "smoking cirrus" reference into the local ABC interview. But instead it consisted of talking about how close is close enough for some really big swell. You would have been my hero. I promise you, if someone of your stature drops one of those, the media will run with it. We'll have Christina Abernathy out in the field asking whether it's possible the area could end up smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 "Steve, you have biases in the opposite direction.....if a parking lot in RI floods, it's awe-inspiring." Oh yea.. Love ya, Stevie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have good friends down in GSP. Man is that an ugly 5 day rainfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 "Steve, you have biases in the opposite direction.....if a parking lot in RI floods, it's awe-inspiring." This website really need a banner with Steve's SOS spotlight to go up everytime flooding is expected. http://www.wpwa.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I see radar and satellite imagery and I see the heaviest rains setting up show further northwest than the coastal plain like the GFS showed, could actually mean the model is too far east with the pattern to begin with up north and this might in turn bring Joaquin into a closer position to New England, especially ACK and CHH. I think the EURO is not the right solution, but it should be closer to the EURO than say the GFDL and HWRF. I would take a track closer to ACK than not. Just my two cents. I think once Joaquin begins to take an northerly track he will catch up with the 0-5 knots of wind shear environment and rapidly intensify once his EWRC is done with. This should preclude a category five hurricane in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The best line in this thread was the RI parking lot flooding from Ray. I LOL'd.best part was ray and Kevin schooling all of you once again on huge storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You would have been my hero. I promise you, if someone of your stature drops one of those, the media will run with it. We'll have Christina Abernathy out in the field asking whether it's possible the area could end up smoking cirrus. I can just hear the follow up question now. "How does one smoke cirrus?" and "How often do we smoke cirrus in this area?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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