40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 931MB. Mildly surprised that they didn't up the winds....maybe on the main advisory.. Eyewall is closed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 With the NAVGEM gonzo... probable that the last of the stragglers will head on out too. Unless some different data gets into the grid and changes it all over again - other wise, this is a week I wish I had back . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Miami has entered the cirrus smoking party.my parents are in ft laud, landed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 No, I know you do. I wasn't implying anything. All good I'm just trying to wring out any kind of residual suspense after getting hooked for the past 36 hours. The unfortunate aspect regarding NHC credibility is that this was actually not that hard a forecast since last night, relatively speaking given pretty overwhelming trends in guidance. (Now watch this trough swing-and-a-miss and this beast continue southwest.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 With the NAVGEM gonzo... probable that the last of the stragglers will head on out too. Unless some different data gets into the grid and changes it all over again - other wise, this is a week I wish I had back . I actually lost sleep on this , this week. Woke up a couple nights excited about a potential hit up here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 With a bimodal distribution of possible solutions... their forecast was the worst possible one in terms of likely outcomes.This is basically the point here. Get paid the big bucks...make a decision and stop kicking the can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I actually lost sleep on this , this week. Woke up a couple nights excited about a potential hit up here . We warned you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We warn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I actually lost sleep on this , this week. Woke up a couple nights excited about a potential hit up here . The way I look at it there's always uncertainty and odds against a strike up here, so we're either in the game or not. Definitely we were in it for awhile, seems to be on life support right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I wasn't on yesterday, but I know here at work....the track was brought more into NC. Yes it was wrong as it turned out, but the call was made given the consensus and best guess at the time. However, it drives questions on why we are different than NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was up for the Euro every night around 230 and up late and early (11 pm and 5 am)for NHC. I've been this way during major potential events since I was 12 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This is basically the point here. Get paid the big bucks...make a decision and stop kicking the can. Right? So occasionally you make a bad call and bust the track forecast. But if you're really any good, overall you should hit closer than not and those track errors will balance out to be equal if not better than this middle of the model consensus stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We warned you.Once we knew at 12z yesterday this was over.. I slept thru the night last night. Amazing really lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Right? So occasionally you make a bad call and bust the track forecast. But if you're really any good, overall you should hit closer than not and those track errors will balance out to be equal if not better than this middle of the model consensus stuff.man been preaching that for years grow some balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Perhaps I can understand the need to keep up vigilance for the SC/NC/VA/MidAtl yesterday, given most hurricane models had a NC landfall (some even trended south yesterday afternoon!). But I think with the 0z Euro last night and the 0z/6z/12z GFS today, communication could have been clearer that the coast landfall was very unlikely. Several states announced a State of Emergency this afternoon / evening. Overkill is wasteful and numbs the public, etc. etc. I know these guys have a very tough job and I don't claim to having anything remotely close to their skill, but even this forum had pretty good consensus and understanding by noon today, why not in a highly-paid government service? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think the States of Emergency are declared more in CYA mode anymore. Better declaring and not needing it than stalling, declaring late, then struggle to clean up the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think the States of Emergency are declared more in CYA mode anymore. Better declaring and not needing it than stalling, declaring late, then struggle to clean up the pieces. Sadly, most things are guided more by CYA mode rather than accuracy or quality these days. Hint of an east wobble in last few frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The tropical models have capitulated, time to declare it officially dead. Canada will figure it out eventually and they can let France know in an email or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 doh lol... (compared to 12z, many more members back on SC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think the States of Emergency are declared more in CYA mode anymore. Better declaring and not needing it than stalling, declaring late, then struggle to clean up the pieces. Well I believe that in declaring them early, that allows funding to more easily arrive in the event that it is needed for a landfalling system. Rather than wait to declare after the fact and delay things further. In a sense that is CYA, but also smart if you are going to get right to the recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well I believe that in declaring them early, that allows funding to more easily arrive in the event that it is needed for a landfalling system. Rather than wait to declare after the fact and delay things further. In a sense that is CYA, but also smart if you are going to get right to the recovery. True, but SOEs are being declared way early now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I actually lost sleep on this , this week. Woke up a couple nights excited about a potential hit up here . it is best not to lose sleep over and October hurricane in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Surf N Showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lost the eye on infared again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Joaquins I K E, 31 is now higher than Rita's, 29 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah some ofthe 18z GEFS members are west a bit toward NC. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think Bermuda may end up having a crack at this. At the very least, the east coast of US and Canada will get some good swells and wave action. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 For others to see (compare this 12z to the more recent 18z GEFS I posted above). A little unnerving buck of the overwhelming guidance trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I was up for the Euro every night around 230 and up late and early (11 pm and 5 am)for NHC. I've been this way during major potential events since I was 12 years old. I'm still waiting to experience a landfalling cane here. Was in northern Vt during Bob and was too young during Gloria. That's the only phenomena I can think of that I've missed. Tornado, blizzards, big hail, ice storms, extreme cold etc: check. Just one left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 lol if this was a winter storm and we went OT you would move posts in a second lol odd response by William Odd response by someone who has been so opposed to subforums all these years...and now wants to only discuss the play by play of a storm that is likely going to have no impact on New England in the New England subforum. I'm fine talking about the storm, but this thread was originally about how it might impact us and not really a PBP thread...and I was pointing out that we have some of the better posters for tropical systems posting in a designated thread in the main forum. I don't think I'd be moving those OT posts in the winter either...it would be comparable to people talking about a winter storm that is like 500 miles away from New England after all the models trended away from a hit. Like I said, talk away...but lets not pretend this is a hugely important thread for our subforum now...given the impacts are likely to be nothing outside of some good body surfing in front of Taylor Swift's pad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.