JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It didn't give NYC's deformation band to ginx? And it was 24 hrs out or something like that.I said that backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. Yeah I don't mean to compare that with this. That storm was a small shift, all things considered. This one was a fail of diagnosing the environment around the storm and beyond. I was just using that as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. Exactly. That forecast was a disaster... way worse than the model's performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. Euro missed more than that i thought. Final solution, yes about 50 miles....but leading up to at day 2 and 24hr out it was off by a good 100-150 miles showing philly with 30"+.... In winter that's alot of real estate to be off by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 J looks the best it has right now. Wish recon was in there. Bet the pressure is tanking. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro handled the 1/27/15 storm horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah I don't mean to compare that with this. That storm was a small shift, all things considered. This one was a fail of diagnosing the environment around the storm and beyond. I was just using that as an example. I mean it's interesting when you consider all the money and time spent on things like the HWRF. Yeah, it did a great job in retrospect sniffing out the intensity possibilities, but it only knows what's going on with the TC itself in a sense. The ECMWF has a better handle on the basic upper air pattern, and therefore has a better handle on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Regardless....the hype is overdone with this and it's terrible when someone like Ryan mentions out to sea is most likely outcome, the truth, and gets scolded for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro handled the 1/27/15 storm horribly. Easy for the guys who got 3 feet to say it was slightly off...but to us who got nothing it's a different perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The euro just handles better blocking patterns then other guidance it seems. Although more to it that just that with Joakim. But generally I feel it's superior when the flow buckles maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro missed more than that i thought. Final solution, yes about 50 miles....but leading up to at day 2 and 24hr out it was off by a good 100-150 miles showing philly with 30"+.... In winter that's alot of real estate to be off by. Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Easy for the guys who got 3 feet to say it was slightly off...but to us who got nothing it's a different perspective. Nobody is stealing your snow, it's just a reality. When you're on the western edge 50 miles can mean the difference between all or nothing. Joaquin could've been 50 miles north and gotten sucked right into the East Coast by the approaching trough, but it buried SW and we're left with this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world. True..I see your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Models are blind to population. It's our job to explain impacts, the Euro only follows the physics. In the end a 100 mile shift is big in terms of impacts, but much smaller in the modeling world.But it was 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ekster and I were just discussing that storm, the Euro really missed by like 30-50 miles tops. That's like 3 gridpoints in the model. The bigger issue was probably how we (meteorologists, maybe NWS specifically) interpreted and communicated the data. Probably not smart to thrown down 3' of snow for NYC when you're on the western edge of the system. I actually thought the Euro was worse in the 2/15 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It didn't give NYC's deformation band to ginx? And it was 24 hrs out or something like that. Central LI got smoked, so it really wasn't that far off. It was a failed forecast...it was worse than models like the RGEM and UKMET, but it wasn't an epic model collapse. It was too aggresive by <50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I actually thought the Euro was worse in the 2/15 storm. I'll second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nobody is stealing your snow, it's just a reality. When you're on the western edge 50 miles can mean the difference between all or nothing. Joaquin could've been 50 miles north and gotten sucked right into the East Coast by the approaching trough, but it buried SW and we're left with this forecast. Um....ok. not saying my snow was stolen but when ur on the outside looking In it's a different perspective. I've been on the inside with boxing day so I see both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 But it was 24 hours out. I think when the date arrives we can start a thread and look back at runs in painful memory for myself and those to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I actually thought the Euro was worse in the 2/15 storm.Refresh my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Refresh my memory. Yea..like I don't remember it snowing that day and he knows what and how it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Refresh my memory. St. Valentine's Day Massacre, threw all the precip up into ME, did not snow in ME (except Kennebunk and Eastport). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think when the date arrives we can start a thread and look back at runs in painful memory for myself and those to the SW.I think the big totals were modeled well into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin has that look, outflow expanding in the western semi circle, Joaquin could become a category five hurricane when the recon gets in there in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What a moron. I responded. I guess he's defining "first" as "a week ago before the hurricane existed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 J looks the best it has right now. Wish recon was in there. Bet the pressure is tanking. Beautiful.definitly sub 930. Those pin hole eyes can get some super low pressure. Personally I think it bottoms out around 920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Refresh my memory. Mid level magic. Maine was supposed to get a 2 foot blizzard and they basically got a dusting. E MA and parts of NH stole the show. Tho that was more of a monster QPF bust rather than an issue with storm track. But it was still very unusual for it to be that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I saw the HWRF go as low as 912mb, now that is extremely low, record top ten hurricanes of all time low in the Atlantic Basin. However I think the HH recon plane will find a pressure near 925mb and winds near 150mph with the pinhole eye around 14nm wide. That is my guess on the first vortex message this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can we please talk about the intensity of this hurricane instead of winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Satellite estimates show from ADT that Joaquin has a pressure of 932mb and 127 knot winds. This is a strong category four hurricane at the very least and could be a category five hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.