Zeus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 May have just wobbled south. Gonna need you to not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The movement has been west overall over the past few hours with a few wobbles south added in. NHC didn't have it reaching 75W with official track and it appears it will. I was just thinking the same starting at the sat.. Doesn't matter too much, as the turn is going to be so sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gonna need you to not. I wasn't insinuating anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is it me or does it seem like the northern extend of the tracks have been getting pushed back time wise. I mean now we're looking at Monday PM still well south. I'm still reading through and catching up to the conversation, but I think this is key. We said it a few days ago, the faster Joaquin moved north the more likely a hit was. The longer the delay, and the more likely OTS became. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I always though that 130mph was a really strong cat 3? Doesn't 4 begin at 131mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost a 50/50 split now. I don't have the 12z for comparison but I believe more members are now West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 UGH GOV. MALLOY ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS Connecticut Emergency Management Officials Continue to Monitor Track of Hurricane Joaquin, Prepare Response Services (HARTFORD, CT) – Governor Dannel P. Malloy today said that with Hurricane Joaquin currently forecast to impact the east coast over the next several days, he is asking Connecticut residents to closely monitor the storm’s path and be prepared for severe weather conditions. The Governor continues to work with state emergency management officials to monitor the storm and make preparations for necessary state response. “Just as the state is monitoring and preparing, the public should do the same,” Governor Malloy said. “Weather models are predicting that Hurricane Joaquin may move onshore in the area of the northeast coast this weekend. Although its potential impact on Connecticut is still developing as forecasts adjust, we need to be prepared because these types of storms can oftentimes be unpredictable. We will continue to update residents, and in the meantime we urge folks to begin making preparations.” The state Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security (DEMHS) has been participating in National Weather Service conference calls to receive the latest information on the storm’s tr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still reading through and catching up to the conversation, but I think this is key. We said it a few days ago, the faster Joaquin moved north the more likely a hit was. The longer the delay, and the more likely OTS became. I agree with this in premise. A Land-falling TC north of the subtropics is usually all about excellent timing. That said, we do have a quite unusual pattern in that we don't have another trough sweeping in, in this one's wake. The timing, now, is really with regard to the strength of the block. The first good opportunity was lost. However, it is conceivable to see a temporary weakness in the block, overcome and build back in, as Jaoquin begins the turn northward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stage 2 fodder: Center is a bit further west (? 50-100 miles) than the NHC track or where the 12z Euro or 12z HWRF had it at this time, with a wobbly southwest heading: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Stage 2 fodder: Center is a bit further west (? 50-100 miles) than the NHC track or where the 12z Euro or 12z HWRF had it at this time, with a wobbly southwest heading: Sat_10_01_15_15z.png Based on this the NHC is actually doing well. The Euro and NHC "center of cone" diverge quite early, so the NHC looks like it is scoring some early points here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Coastal, there is that cluster of solutions on the right that are out to sea but seem to want to bend J back NNW towards New England. I guess it would not take too much of a change to bring J close enough to E New England for impacts. As it's slowly whinning down up in these latitudes I would guess its wind/rain field would expand so perhaps we would experience something?? I still think any effects will be difficult to get here in SE areas..nevermind NNE. It would take a big model shift...something I don't see at this time right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Big surf will be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What would happen if all of the models are still underestimating the southern extent of Joaquin's track? Could it just decide to go straight into FL if it misses the trough completely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 what an impressive job by the euro, it has of course had solid wins in the past....but this is one of the most memorable and important great job and hats off, I don't know wtf they put into that computer, but feel free to gimme some, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Clarence town forecast Thursday Night 10/01 100% / 5.96 inShowery rains containing strong gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Low 82F. Winds NNW at over 100 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 5 to 8 inches of rain expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAO flipping negative over next few days. Should help increase easterly flow over the North Atlantic. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What would happen if all of the models are still underestimating the southern extent of Joaquin's track? Could it just decide to go straight into FL if it misses the trough completely? My last vestige of weenie hope.....at this point, dig for oil. If it ever mixed that damn trough, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My last vestige of weenie hope.....at this point, dig for oil. If it ever mixed that damn trough, all bets are off. Maybe we could even get a nice noreaster from the ULL that's digging for oil itself lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks the best it ever has at this very moment. Wow....almost taking on the appeal of one of those west PAC mutants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Everyone is saying congrats euro so far yes but with a storm this big I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere on the east coast or bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Everyone is saying congrats euro so far yes but with a storm this big I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere on the east coast or bermuda Blizzard24 is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC finally updates to reflect a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall,with a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the SteppedFrequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall. Thelast central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936mb. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,and CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range. Based on these data, theintensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin aCategory 4 hurricane. While this advisory will not increase theintensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraftarriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system.Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12hours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in anenvironment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, therecould be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacementcycles. While there remains some uncertainty regarding theintensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast issimilar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakeningduring this period. Overall, the intensity forecast lies near theupper edge of the guidance envelope.Joaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past fewhours and the initial motion is now 235/5. Water vapor imageryshows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with adeveloping deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeasternUnited States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become acut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. Thispattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24hours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since thelast advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the eastand lying closer to the ECMWF. In addition, the HWRF has made abig jump to the east and now shows an offshore track. These changeshave pushed the consensus models farther eastward.The Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - stillcalling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough andturn northwestward toward the U. S. coast. The new forecast trackis adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF,HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to thetrack are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol not at all just saying just to close for comfort Blizzard24 is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The end the DISCO by telling you that they are done windshield wiping east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Everyone is saying congrats euro so far yes but with a storm this big I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere on the east coast or bermudai if it goes much further west as it turns north is going to go right over Nassau? 250K population.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That NHC track is not far off from my feelings last night. We'll see how it tracks in the next 24. Current feelings are obviously further east than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Everyone is saying congrats euro so far yes but with a storm this big I wouldn't let my guard down anywhere on the east coast or bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think this NHC track is right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think this NHC track is right on. I knew you'd like that track. Unfortunately for you there's this at the end of the disco: The new forecast track is adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120 hours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, HWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the track are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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