CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah the ground was already saturated from a ton of rain that month...I think BDL had like 6 and a half inches of rain in the 2-3 weeks prior to Irene....now add whatever rain falls from Irene before the wind gusts...so weaker winds did more damage than otherwise. A lot of places had half decent damage with barely TS force gusts in Irene. So certainly the antecedent conditions leading up to the storm can play a significant role in what the storm's impact will be. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The point is, it's a weak sauce storm. 40 mph winds knock limbs over, so should I be awe struck if a maple fell on my car in a 40mph gust? No. Just a because it knocked trees over with TS force winds shouldn't distract people to what it actually was. A TS. It knocked trees over in a heavily forested area and caused people to lose power thanks to poor location of wires wrapped around boughs of trees. Yes. Be that as it may, it had a very adverse effect in area....but as tropical systems go, it blew (pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep. 1938 had a lot of rain too before it hit...so the damage was exacerbated. A storm like that would have obviously been hardcore destructive with or without prior rains, but it certainly didn't need those rains before hitting. The interior flooding was a lot worse because of that. I'm sure some extra trees got uprooted too. (the one's that didn't shear off anyway, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF is OTS. That's when you know it's really, really game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's when you know it's really, really game over. It was over last night. Hey, we need to respect the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, found a few useful posts with actual storm info in the past few pages. Thanks to those people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It was over last night. Hey, we need to respect the GEM The Euro ensembles at 12z yesterday were really a red flag...once we had more than half of them siding with the OP, I was starting to hedge pretty heavily toward the idea that this storm was fish food...and then you had some nudges eastward before capture at 18z and some 00z guidance before we saw the Euro again last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It caused wind damage to my legs as i stood at Chatham Light on the beach clinging to a pole My trash bag rain coat killed a seal that choked on it after it got shredded off of me. I think I still have embedded sand in some "places" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 4 now I'm hearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll see how far west it gets. I'll be impressed if it gets past 75w. Would be west of NHC track. Looks like storm is heading NW at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 4 now I'm hearing? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 48 euro has it moving ene . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2pm WTF???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 2pm Guess they're riding the NAM and GGEM.. EURO is way OTS by day 3, although it's a strange look in the first 24 hours as it suggests the storm moves due south between now and 12z tomorrow. I suppose it's possible that it could start moving south again, but at this point we're on more of a westward movement and so seeing that flip again would be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll see how far west it gets. I'll be impressed if it gets past 75w. Would be west of NHC track. Looks like storm is heading NW at this time. Looks due west to me...looking at the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I fully admit. I want to live thru a storm like 38. I fully understand how bad things would be, damage and otherwise.. I totally get it..but I would give just about anything to have a storm like that... I think deep down inside, just about anyone who is a weather fanatic wants to experience nature's fury at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm pretty sure nhc doesn't update that map at intermediate advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 48 euro has it moving ene . Yeah the curve to the NE doesn't happen until tomorrow afternoon probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still in low confidence... if NHC is placing that cone there again at 2pm it just feels like something is up. Could be as just likely that they didn't see euro before. But they did see GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm pretty sure nhc doesn't update that map at intermediate advisories. It doesn't. Maybe a slight positive is that the EUROP as it burying itself south of west still, and it isn't......reaching, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still in low confidence... if NHC is placing that cone there again at 2pm it just feels like something is up. Could be as just likely that they didn't see euro before. But they did see GFS.... That is the 11am cone, they do not update it for intermediate advisories. They will creep eastward on each subsequent main advisory until it's a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks due west to me...looking at the eye. I think I'm with you. Looks like it's doing the wobble wobble. Interesting to note that euro has this dropping south for several more hours but it seems to be heading west. NHC has this turning north soon and that doesn't look to be happening either. Definition of low confidence. Jesus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That is the 11am cone, they do not update it for intermediate advisories. They will creep eastward on each subsequent main advisory until it's a fish. Didn't know that sorry everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I place it at about 73.4 west...speeding up a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It doesn't. Maybe a slight positive is that the EUROP as it burying itself south of west still, and it isn't......reaching, but... I think I'm with you. Looks like it's doing the wobble wobble. Interesting to note that euro has this dropping south for several more hours but it seems to be heading west. NHC has this turning north soon and that doesn't look to be happening either. Definition of low confidence. Jesus lol Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z Euro deson't really look like it buries it south...it's mostly due west through 18-24 hours. Maybe a brief wobble slightly south of due west between 6-12 hours, but it's splitting hairs. In short, I don't think the current storm motion is inconsistent with a final Euro solution of recurving this. We'd probably need to wait until tonight or tomorrow morning to notice if anything was significantly "off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm still in low confidence... if NHC is placing that cone there again at 2pm it just feels like something is up. Could be as just likely that they didn't see euro before. But they did see GFS....Are you serious? I mean really? Who cares what the cone shows. Get out on the football field and take your cone with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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