CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm actually more annoyed by these NWS forecasts than I was during the Sandy hurricane warning debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 935.1 mb this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm actually more annoyed by these NWS forecasts than I was during the Sandy hurricane warning debacle. Seriously how do you put that on air and explain it? This isn't rhetorical...I'm actually curious. So folks, you see the NHC says we'll have a tropical storm sitting just south of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 this things like a bad episode of The Bachelor ... some fuzz nuts (Joaquin) sitting their peering over possible targets, ...and all the blushing targets in a fervor frenzy of storm lust begging that he picks them... Hell, Bermuda's showing off her pantie line at this point. Hmm, who will he choose. One huge difference between the CMC and the Euro from 00z was that the Euros polar high/block was far more transient and progressive than the CMC, which stalwart holds the big wall in place ... That CMC exertion from the N put a huge stoppage on the J.'s ability to migrate E and than naturally ...it has to get sucked into that vortex down there... Actually, that 00z version wasn't far off from doing a kind of perfect storm deal, where it fused in so quickly and violently ... the only difference is that it's over land... but if that were to find it's way back to the g-string it "could" actually redevelop as a hybrid system... Out of the box idea but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Seriously how do you put that on air and explain it? This isn't rhetorical...I'm actually curious. So folks, you see the NHC says we'll have a tropical storm sitting just south of us... Yeah I actually have no idea what we "should" be saying, unfortunately. Just a really unfortunate set of circumstances where we're sort of stuck with the NWS "one size fits all approach" to some things. Paragraphs the the advisory discussion and Facebook posts are great but we're really stuck with the cone since that is the most visible and "understood" graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z GFS is a miss per twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even if it were to take that track, NBD by the time it reached us. Stakes aren't very high up here. Hmm wasn't Irene a TS, its not always the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah I actually have no idea what we "should" be saying, unfortunately. Just a really unfortunate set of circumstances where we're sort of stuck with the NWS "one size fits all approach" to some things. Paragraphs the the advisory discussion and Facebook posts are great but we're really stuck with the cone since that is the most visible and "understood" graphic. you almost just have to say "the cone is sort of the average of the tracks, but not necessarily the most likely...there are two camps, one that goes well south into the Carolinas and another that misses out to sea" Obviously that's not easy, lol. A shaded probability graphic would be a lot more informative. Darker shades for out to sea, almost nothing for SNE and light to moderate shades for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah I actually have no idea what we "should" be saying, unfortunately. Just a really unfortunate set of circumstances where we're sort of stuck with the NWS "one size fits all approach" to some things. Paragraphs the the advisory discussion and Facebook posts are great but we're really stuck with the cone since that is the most visible and "understood" graphic. Hopefully in another 12 hours this will just be put to bed and the cone can move far enough out in the Atlantic so as not to look like its going to take a direct hit somewhere in the Northeastern United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 State of emergency just declared for NJ CNN sounding very alarming 12 noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 you almost just have to say "the cone is sort of the average of the tracks, but not necessarily the most likely...there are two camps, one that goes well south into the Carolinas and another that misses out to sea" Obviously that's not easy, lol. A shaded probability graphic would be a lot more informative. Darker shades for out to sea, almost nothing for SNE and light to moderate shades for the Carolinas. Yeah, best approach. However then you have the map that says "Official NHC Forecast Track" and folks scratching their head being like, well if its not likely, why is that their forecast track? Its like "We are forecasting 6-12" of snow for this upcoming snowstorm, however we don't think that's likely at all. Its either going to be 18+ or nothing." Maybe Blizz gets his wind after all? The problem seems to be all the other NHC forecast products come from that forecast track. LIke these wind probabilities seem like they could be turning more easterly to show how that is seeming more likely at this point. But it all just seems to run off that official track, so even the probability maps aren't showing the uncertainty too well. Like have the 30 percent color shading split...one goes east and one goes west into the Carolina's. Instead this still looks like the best possibility is right up the coast towards SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hmm wasn't Irene a TS, its not always the wind Hmm it was no big deal for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro ftw.. why even look at other models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 State of emergency just declared for NJ CNN sounding very alarming 12 noon did they look at the latest gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 wooosh.......GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I just don't understand where the value is in constructing graphic that illustrates the mean of all of the guidance....I mean, can't anyone do that? I think folks could glean more from being informed as to the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I kinda like that just offshore tickle track still that I mentioned I think last night(?) Slight track changes in the next 24-48 could mean a lot of rain for some if it passes close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah I actually have no idea what we "should" be saying, unfortunately. Just a really unfortunate set of circumstances where we're sort of stuck with the NWS "one size fits all approach" to some things. Paragraphs the the advisory discussion and Facebook posts are great but we're really stuck with the cone since that is the most visible and "understood" graphic. Why not just make your own cone? Why do you have to use theirs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That seals it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's the thing. It's not the average really...well you can say that to simplify it, but splitting the difference isn't helping at all. Even if they went with the consensus into NC...yeah maybe it is a bust, but you have the good argument of consensus on your side and it's just fine for a defense. I mean right now, they look like they are forecasting for error and not reality. What do you think people are saying when looking at that graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why not just make your own cone? Why do you have to use theirs? We could. Not sure it's great practice though from a communication standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hmm it was no big deal for most of us. Yea you mean for most of you in eastern Mass . It was a big deal for millions of people however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's the thing. It's not the average really...well you can say that to simplify it, but splitting the difference isn't helping at all. Even if they went with the consensus into NC...yeah maybe it is a bust, but you have the good argument of consensus on your side and it's just fine for a defense. I mean right now, they look like they are forecasting for error and not reality. What do you think people are saying when looking at that graphic? If I wasn't fortunate enough to follow this board I'd be excited that at least a strong tropical storm was on its way. Speaking as a typical layperson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That seals it. Time for a thread title change... Joaquin Dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's the thing. It's not the average really...well you can say that to simplify it, but splitting the difference isn't helping at all. Even if they went with the consensus into NC...yeah maybe it is a bust, but you have the good argument of consensus on your side and it's just fine for a defense. I mean right now, they look like they are forecasting for error and not reality. What do you think people are saying when looking at that graphic? To me, that is analogous to what goes in some of the VA facilities with regard to processing of claims from outside healthcare vendors. Paying the claim as fast as possible, and ensuring that the vet isn't burdened with a bill is not always the main priority. It's mind f*cking the gov. powers that be as they glance at the metrics on a spreadsheet. "Lets deny these claims, or delay processing them, so that we do not get penalized for taking longer than the allotted 90 day period". Common denominator amongst gov. agencies....."prioritize looking better on paper, and by extension porking the general populous in order to ostensibly mask our gross inefficiency". NHC wants pretty verification scores so that those in charge can dry hump spread sheets. Sickening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yea you mean for most of you in eastern Mass . It was a big deal for millions of people however. Yes it was. Just not big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 c Time for a thread title change... Joaquin Dead? change it to first frost odd this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed. In some spots(Irene) it was no big deal, in others it was a DISASTER. The blizzard of 2015/Juno was no big deal for me here where I live(12 inches or so), but for folks in Eastern CT and Eastern Mass it was a Monster/Record breaker. Should I say Juno was no big deal just because it wasn't where I lived? People need to watch what they say with these blanket statements/remarks all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Time for a thread title change... Joaquin Dead? Like Jesus it is Joaquin on the water. What would be great would be for the Euro to have a burp run today ( seems to have 1 of those at this time frame). I love the model chaos, keeps some of the Mets humble, they need it. Its a sometimes cocky profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed. In some spots it was no big deal, in others it was a DISASTER. The blizzard of 2015/Juno was no big deal for me here where I live(12 inches or so), but for folks in Eastern CT and Eastern Mass it was a Monster/Record breaker. Should I say Juno was no big deal just because it wasn't where I lived? People need to watch what they say with these blanket statements/remarks all the time. You should know by now if it didn't happen in EMA its always NBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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