wxeyeNH Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With a more out to sea possibility and trying to hook back west to some degree wouldn't that increase PRE rain chances in SE New England? That and coastal flooding the main threats with a track OTS but close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin is now a sub 940mb storm with latest pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You'll still need 12z suite of guidance to seal the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You'll still need 12z suite of guidance to seal the deal. Yea, that's the buzzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I blame the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As of a minute ago, NHC on twitter still hasn't moved their cone of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What a beast on Satellite now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's amazing to me thru the various forums and social media how many people still think the Euro is wrong and an east coast hit is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As of a minute ago, NHC on twitter still hasn't moved their cone of possibility. Looks to me like their last actual tweet was 2 hours ago; their forecast wouldn't be adjusted until the 11 AM product package anyhow. Distinct possibility they stand pat -- relatively speaking -- until 12z guidance comes in. And that is probably a reasonable course of action at this particular juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's amazing to me thru the various forums and social media how many people still think the Euro is wrong and an east coast hit is possible It's because of that fraud of a NHC cone. Idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's because of that fraud of a NHC cone. Idiotic. Not just that. Some very knowledgeable people just won't admit this is a done deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the IR representation of the eye is finally improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not just that. Some very knowledgeable people just won't admit this is a done deal I've been surprised at Harvey Leonard through this....basically just humping the NHC cone the entire time. Was hedging towards SC as of late last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the IR representation of the eye is finally improving. Water vapor loop suggest it's having success mixing out some streaks of dry air that got sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think we all know when you deal with the media and the public you can't just make the statements we make here.. not sure why anybody is surprised by the :knowledgeable" people being cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've been surprised at Harvey Leonard through this....basically just humping the NHC cone the entire time. Was hedging towards SC as of late last night. In a way we are all slaves to the cone. I didn't see Harvey last night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not just that. Some very knowledgeable people just won't admit this is a done deal Not a done deal... close to it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah I wouldn't say it's 100% done....but like we said earlier...there was a notable shift to the ECMWF, so that needs to be addressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not just that. Some very knowledgeable people just won't admit this is a done deal Kev, I get that you're disappointed. But look at it objectively. Until there is overwhelming evidence that this thing is completely a non-threat to the US, what do you want people to do? If they went OTS right now and the thing somehow ended up in NY Harbor, you'd have a lot of dead NY'ers. If this were out at 50W, they probably already would have adjusted the cone to a NE/SW orientation. But its not. The NHC doesn't do their thing to make all us weenies happy. They do it to save lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In a way we are all slaves to the cone. I didn't see Harvey last night though. Yup. The NHC has been able to get the media and EMs to be slaves to the cone - unlike any other maps/representation in the NWS. The problem is the cone is sometimes wildly unrepresentative of the actual forecast uncertainty. The NHC can't have it both ways. They can't tell everyone for decades to focus on the cone and then say... well, you should really read the discussion when the cone isn't a good representation of the threat. The NHC is doing the best they can but to be honest it seems like they're forecasting much more to reduce their error scores than forecasting what's actually the most likely scenario. It's been a nightmare for us trying to communicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Water vapor loop suggest it's having success mixing out some streaks of dry air that got sucked in. Ah, thanks...I'll have a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In a way we are all slaves to the cone. I didn't see Harvey last night though. Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yup. The NHC has been able to get the media and EMs to be slaves to the cone - unlike any other maps/representation in the NWS. The problem is the cone is sometimes wildly unrepresentative of the actual forecast uncertainty. The NHC can't have it both ways. They can't tell everyone for decades to focus on the cone and then say... well, you should really read the discussion when the cone isn't a good representation of the threat. The NHC is doing the best they can but to be honest it seems like they're forecasting much more to reduce their error scores than forecasting what's actually the most likely scenario. It's been a nightmare for us trying to communicate. Boris(vortex95) brought up that point. I couldn't fault them for the track yesterday at first....but then again..the "consensus" was for a landfall no further north than ORF at best. To cut the difference because of the ECMWF is misleading. It will either be in one camp or the other. That's how it goes in nature. Even if they busted, they can fall back on the consensus and stick with that argument which is perfectly acceptable. Forecasting for skill scores so you can post a nice image on your end of the year powerpoint, is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not really. See Ryan's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Boris(vortex95) brought up that point. I couldn't fault them for the track yesterday at first....but then again..the "consensus" was for a landfall no further north than ORF at best. To cut the difference because of the ECMWF is misleading. It will either be in one camp or the other. That's how it goes in nature. Even if they busted, they can fall back on the consensus and stick with that argument which is perfectly acceptable. Forecasting for skill scores so you can post a nice image on your end of the year powerpoint, is misleading. It's a weird philosophy but I think they're stuck doing that. If they're verifying off the error of a deterministic forecast they're occasionally not going to forecast the most likely outcome. From a communication standpoint that's a disaster. The cone shouldn't be fixed... it should be variable based on forecast confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 See Ryan's post. I saw it. I think individual forecasters should devise a forecast for themselves in a situation like this when you know it's BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In a way we are all slaves to the cone. I didn't see Harvey last night though. He said his best guess was the Carolinas, didn't seem to be buying into the euro at the time. That cone is rough, it's hard for anyone in the northeast to see that and not think "oh sh**, it's coming right for us." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 He said his best guess was the Carolinas, didn't seem to be buying into the euro at the time. That cone is rough, it's hard for anyone in the northeast to see that and not think "oh sh**, it's coming right for us." He said "if anything, I'm hedging further south".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's amazing to me thru the various forums and social media how many people still think the Euro is wrong and an east coast hit is possibleIt's amazing to me how many people are more interested in "being right" first and obsessed with making a call instead of verbatim just enjoying the "chase" of landing a solid storm. Also amazing that so many people are willing to rule out an east coast landfall completely at this stage. This isn't a wintertime pattern. Things behave differently, especially tropical storms at our logitude. No I'm not saying to expect a strike. I'm not saying either way. I'm also not going to irresponsibly rule out any scenario. I'm not highlighting your posts right now but just a commentary in general. This whole guessing game of who is going to be right first is insufferable. Worst part is it will last right through winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just like last winter when 90% of this forum was ruling it a dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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