Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 In other news, the sun rose this morning. OSU already stopped posting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OSU already stopped posting? I have to. Our bet was based on whether or not it would make major status. Awesome scenario....I lose the bet, but the storm is still useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I have to. Our bet was based on whether or not it would make major status. Awesome scenario....I lose the bet, but the storm is still useless. oh OK. I thought it was related to LF in US.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 oh OK. I thought it was related to LF in US.. What a f*cking waste. This like an Andrew scenario if we could just shove this thing another 200 mi west. What an ominous situation with a system of that intensity in that spot, and still gaining strength, as 231/232 pieces of guidance indicated a US LF. Only in this god forsaken, el nino ravaged season could this end in boring. My god....take me out back and just shoot me. CPR me when it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Way too quick to be jumping the gun on an out to sea solution. Sure the trends aren't good but when you're talking about a phasing scenario and it's a pretty damn close one, it doesn't take much for that to happen. Just a subtle difference in one thing and boom. It's not like the features at play are just eroding away or disappearing. Plus as stated last night, a much stronger system would increase this staying more west as opposed to going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Way too quick to be jumping the gun on an out to sea solution. Sure the trends aren't good but when you're talking about a phasing scenario and it's a pretty damn close one, it doesn't take much for that to happen. Just a subtle difference in one thing and boom. It's not like the features at play are just eroding away or disappearing. Plus as stated last night, a much stronger system would increase this staying more west as opposed to going east. The EURO was the most aggressive with intensification a couple of days ago, and also accurately depicted the sw movement. What does this tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Way too quick to be jumping the gun on an out to sea solution. Sure the trends aren't good but when you're talking about a phasing scenario and it's a pretty damn close one, it doesn't take much for that to happen. Just a subtle difference in one thing and boom. It's not like the features at play are just eroding away or disappearing. Plus as stated last night, a much stronger system would increase this staying more west as opposed to going east. LOL..no it isn't. There is 0 chance of a US hit. ZERO. When the Euro at 12z Yesterday stayed east you knew then it was over and we even said we'd expect 00z models last night to jump east and they all did. The stronger the system the better chance it goes OTS and fights off any tug from the ULL Move on to severe season next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the Bahamas are the only land area that ends up with significant impacts from Joaquin, I'd like to ask its residents how they felt about the 72hr prog from 9/28 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the Bahamas are the only land area that ends up with significant impacts from Joaquin, I'd like to ask its residents how they felt about the 72hr prog from 9/28 0z ECMWF. Who cares. I can't see those because I'm at work, but I'm guessing it didn't verify well. It was a very complicated set up that the EURO had not yet resolved correctly at that point, and I'm sure that it still doesn't have it perfectly. But I'll tell you this, it caught on earlier than every piece of guidance and is likely the closest by far at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The EURO was the most aggressive with intensification a couple of days ago, and also accurately depicted the sw movement. What does this tell you? Even despite these recent trends for further east the one thing that remains a fixture is that this system gets tugged back west...this tells me that the models still believe that the trough is going to capture this system at one point or another, whether its further south or further north. The difference needed for a capture further south is very subtle which is why I'm not bailing. Anytime something involves phasing or capturing you need to watch until the end b/c it doesn't take much for something to happen. I've already bailed once this week...talking to people at school on Monday I originally said I think OTS but then after a few things and much closer look I changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even despite these recent trends for further east the one thing that remains a fixture is that this system gets tugged back west...this tells me that the models still believe that the trough is going to capture this system at one point or another, whether its further south or further north. The difference needed for a capture further south is very subtle which is why I'm not bailing. Anytime something involves phasing or capturing you need to watch until the end b/c it doesn't take much for something to happen. I've already bailed once this week...talking to people at school on Monday I originally said I think OTS but then after a few things and much closer look I changed. I did the same, exact thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 sounds like last winter, anything beyond 48hrs don't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, we are still looking at 72-84 hours down the road in essence when the system is expected to make its move either north or west...it isn't completely uncommon for models to start wavering a bit in this window either. If anything what some of the latest trends could indicate is perhaps a landfall possibility further north and that window is well out there and too early to discount anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at this way.. At least the region enjoys a nice sunny cool fall weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I did the same, exact thing. If we were talking 24-48 hours out here...even 72 I'd have a much different tone but there is still so much at play and considering the type of system we're dealing with letting guard down may not be a good idea. Until we are 110% certain this is OTS we gotta keep all card on the table. If that trough captures this its trouble for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Wiz's approach is perfectly reasonable, for all the reasons he's stated. It remains a complex situation, but the trend since 0z has been very Eurocentric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at this way.. At least the region enjoys a nice sunny cool fall weekend Raking leaves with nips and napes just piercing through shirts. I mean, just tearing right through....it could even be dangerous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also - The Euro didn't have a storm (Juno) at all until about 72 hours out. I remember the night the Euro came back with the blizzard back in January, it was a Friday night(actually Sat morning 0z run/1:30 am..it was snowing out actually that night in SNE..a very wet wet 32 degree snow that accumulated to about 6 inches in my area), and the snowstorm started around 11 or Noon Monday. So the Euro picked that blizzard up/brought it back at about 58-60 hours before the snow started from that storm at my place. So this is 120 or so hours out like people say, which is double the amount of time to go, than when the Euro picked up on the blizzard back in January,so things will change quite a bit before Monday. But probably not to the point to produce a SNE impact of any type of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Who cares. I can't see those because I'm at work, but I'm guessing it didn't verify well. It was a very complicated set up that the EURO had not yet resolved correctly at that point, and I'm sure that it still doesn't have it perfectly. But I'll tell you this, it caught on earlier than every piece of guidance and is likely the closest by far at this point. I agree that the Euro has had a better handle on the continued south movement of Joaquin to this point. But on last night's run, Joaquin reaches 40N around 144 hours. The first run the Euro "caught on" was 0z on 9/29, and when Joaquin reached 40N on that run, it was 500 miles further east. But the sensible weather effects have been the same, a miss OTS, so the Euro was "locked in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All valid points. Hopefully you're right. Nothing wrong with Paul's logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What a f*cking waste. This like an Andrew scenario if we could just shove this thing another 200 mi west. What an ominous situation with a system of that intensity in that spot, and still gaining strength, as 231/232 pieces of guidance indicated a US LF. Only in this god forsaken, el nino ravaged season could this end in boring. My god....take me out back and just shoot me. CPR me when it snows. A lot of folks have been blaming every nuance with every system and modeling issues with El Nino and that's simply not true. Negative correlation in warm ENSOs is caused by shear, and there really has not been an abundance of that until only very recently (the last three weeks); which admittedly, there has been increasing shear as of late, but right now... there's none substantial enough to inhibit J. J. is going to do what it does because of the nuances in the westerlies as they direct deep layer steering, and just look at it this way - the pattern is not El Nino so... logic. The season as a whole exhibited a dearth of TW through the first 2/3rd of it, so it has been like the Red Sox with a +700 records since late August, but only once their record was so buried it no longer mattered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I agree that the Euro has had a better handle on the continued south movement of Joaquin to this point. But on last night's run, Joaquin reaches 40N around 144 hours. The first run the Euro "caught on" was 0z on 9/29, and when Joaquin reached 40N on that run, it was 500 miles further east. But the sensible weather effects have been the same, a miss OTS, so the Euro was "locked in". I'll defer, as I haven't examined any of the EURO runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know the el nino isn't veering it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some of what we're seeing actually makes me a little nervous for some areas along NJ coast, NYC and LIS...if this storm were to retrograde back towards the coast we could be looking at some pretty serious coastal flooding, especially on the western side of the Sound. Just another thing to think about before throwing the flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think the system is a huge deal if it were to LF that far north.....TS, maybe minimal cane in central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't think the system is a huge deal if it were to LF that far north.....TS, maybe minimal cane in central Jersey. I agree...I certainly don't think we're looking at a strong hurricane if LF were to occur this far north but talking more about impacts such as coastal flooding and such. Not sure what the tide situation would be like but that could be a factor too I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The difference between the euro bust last winter and this situation is we aren't talking about 50 miles. The NYC bust was bad but it was probably overstated because they happened to be under the western envelope of the bust. Nobody would have complained about a 50 mile shift in heavy snow if the whole thing had been out to sea to begin with. This is different in that we are talking about two fundamentally different handlings of the system. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Joaquin is a category four hurricane now, recon finding a stronger hurricane with 942mb pressure. An eye is forming and Joaquin has begun to turn towards the west, now moving WSW instead of SW. the eye was there by last evening... --------------------------- J. is progged (as most are aware) to jog significantly left in the Euro out in the middle range. That pattern of behavior was also present, but less obviously so, in the 12z run yesterday. That very tentatively "could be" a trend to come back west. We'll just have to see if this next cycle outputs even more ... But doing the "trend math" ... obviously the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs instills a sinking sort of realism in this. 2 possibilities immediately leap to mind: 1) ...a beginning indication for a collapse seaward by all guidance ...if perhaps needing a cycle of few more to complete 2) ...a coalesce to a new track mean that's different in its own rite. These GFS runs completely unravel confidence in my mind The biggest take away to date with J. is the Meteorological lesson 101 about global numerical models attempting to interact TC with events/features involved with the westerlies. Closed lows are notoriously poorly handled by modeling ... TCs come along with their own pop-cycle headaches... As the old saying goes... two pop-cycle headaches can only make a migraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think it's up to 130mph...not quite cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Wiz's approach is perfectly reasonable, for all the reasons he's stated. It remains a complex situation, but the trend since 0z has been very Eurocentric. Absolutely agree with you on both points. This is still quite a ways out there like I stated in my post...72 hours from now could have a whole different outlook with regard to capture/retrograde/fugi-whatever. But the Euro did see things that look to make it look very good as compared to the American models, yet again. However nothing is carved in stone just yet. An OTS solution seems plausible at this point, but it's not a lock as Wiz points out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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