40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol at the 6z GFS. Just one of many possibilities I guess. Makes it a tad more interesting for the NE and the maritimes. Sent from my iPhone It doesn't make it more interesting for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It doesn't make it more interesting for anyone.Depends on perspective. If you're hoping for a cat 4 to tear up someone's neighbourhood then I guess no but if you are looking for a low end cat 1 or strong TS then it's worth watching. Different strokes for different folks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I am looking forward to Al Roker's live shots from 300 miles off of ACY. Ratings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kevin with the reverse jinx attempt FTL !!! @TollandKev: Joaquin is 100% a miss. It's going out to sea. Any forecasts you see saying we need to watch it or maps showing east coast hits are wrong. @TollandKev: @TollandKev The east coast has NOTHING to watch or worry about. Back to the boredom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kevin with the reverse jinx attempt FTL !!! @TollandKev: Joaquin is 100% a miss. It's going out to sea. Any forecasts you see saying we need to watch it or maps showing east coast hits are wrong. @TollandKev: @TollandKev The east coast has NOTHING to watch or worry about. Back to the boredom Sometimes, science is about ignoring everything but your weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Depends on perspective. If you're hoping for a cat 4 to tear up someone's neighbourhood then I guess no but if you are looking for a low end cat 1 or strong TS then it's worth watching. Different strokes for different folks. Sent from my iPhone I'm not even referring to intensity. LF is just unlikely...period. If you're into that, more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I could understand the tough spot yesterday, but you have to make a call right now. Maybe they wait until 15z. They had to play it that way yesterday into today. The criticism of them was unwarranted imo. GFS took a major shift towards the Euro, The biggest issue I've seen is the GFS underestimating the intensity of the storm. Weaker storm is much more prone to interaction with other features. I'd feel pretty confident about this system swinging off to the east as the ULL in the SE acts as a kicker rather than the 2 interacting with each other and the storm being tugged back towards the coast. If I had to gander it will probably track 100-150 mi SE of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just saw the revised cone on the news. Wow, huge shift east, then saw the GFS cave to the ECM. Amercian models b**ch slapped again. (Well technically the NAM was out to sea, but I'm laughing so hard tears are running down my face, NAM for the win!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm not even referring to intensity. LF is just unlikely...period. If you're into that, more power to you. weather does what it does. I'm just along for the ride...lol. I'd prefer a miss myself. Juan was a low cat 2 and it sufficiently kicked our A$$. I know Bob did the same thing to some of you guys. I could do without that again but like I said I don't have a say in it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They had to play it that way yesterday into today. The criticism of them was unwarranted imo. GFS took a major shift towards the Euro, The biggest issue I've seen is the GFS underestimating the intensity of the storm. Weaker storm is much more prone to interaction with other features. I'd feel pretty confident about this system swinging off to the east as the ULL in the SE acts as a kicker rather than the 2 interacting with each other and the storm being tugged back towards the coast. If I had to gander it will probably track 100-150 mi SE of BM. I understand it yesterday...even though you could argue to keep it into NC because that was consensus. Problem is, that middle of the road track does no service to anyone. It's never like that in nature..it's one camp or the other. Yesterday they had to take that approach, but I can only imagine the hysteria of the NHC track on social media and media outlets right now. What I did like, was the added key messages. Hopefully that is conveyed my media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 weather does what it does. I'm just along for the ride...lol. I'd prefer a miss myself. Juan was a low cat 2 and it sufficiently kicked our A$$. I know Bob did the same thing to some of you guys. I could do without that again but like I said I don't have a say in it. Sent from my iPhone Bob hit the cape and parts of the south coast hard...pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It doesn't make it more interesting for anyone. I think it's fascinating of itself, regardless of whether it poses a threat to land. To see it flourish in a strong Nino in virtually the only favorable spot in the Atlantic is fun to track and sure beats talk of dews and endless innuendoes to COC. As an aside, saw unconfirmed report elsewhere recon is finding 165 mph wind (I assume at flight level). Edit: Looking at the recon data, I'm guessing whoever said the above was looking at the plane's velocity (160 kts), not the windspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's 6hr closer and the old myth of off hour runs is BS. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think it's fascinating of itself, regardless of whether it poses a threat to land. To see it flourish in a strong Nino in virtually the only favorable spot in the Atlantic is fun to track and sure beats talk of dews and endless innuendoes to COC. As an aside, saw unconfirmed report elsewhere recon is finding 165 mph wind (I assume at flight level). I'd rather the focus shift back to SAI to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still doesn't make me forget euros horific Juno bust....let's see if perform in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, if the euro does win this battle...prepare for an all out love fest for that model..lol. Until, the next Jan 27 mishap in NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd rather the focus shift back to SAI to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still doesn't make me forget euros horific Juno bust....let's see if perform in winter. I was thinking about that, but that was more of a 50 mile mistake. If...if the EC wins, it will have totally made every model its Daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still doesn't make me forget euros horific Juno bust....let's see if perform in winter.Let's see it verify in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still doesn't make me forget euros horific Juno bust....let's see if perform in winter. I was thinking about that, but that was more of a 50 mile mistake. If...if the EC wins, it will have totally made every model its Daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I was thinking about that, but that was more of a 50 mile mistake. If...if the EC wins, it will have totally made every model its Daddy. Yea...small error with massive backyard impacts. Funny how fickle winter storms can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Let's see it verify in 4 days. I know ur right...but expecting change now is wishful. Don't get me wrong though, I'm happy with ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Satellite presentation looks pretty freaking good right now. Super cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, including the problematic western flank, eye becoming more evident on IR, nice symmetry. Strengthening may be ongoing. Poor Bahamas taking a beating this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I know ur right...but expecting change now is wishful. Don't get me wrong though, I'm happy with ots.Expecting a 120 hr prog to verify verbatim is wishful. It will change, but the reality is that it will only be noticed if that change is to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not to throw salt on the wounds but I personally find this fujiwara effect/capture over rated. Has it happened in the past? Sure. Does it happen as much as models toss the idea around? Nope. That goes for winter storms too. I'm willing to bet that this type of modelling scenario will be shown again for a storm or two this winter. Models seem to love showing it for some reason and it breaks weenies hearts every time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 weather does what it does. I'm just along for the ride...lol. I'd prefer a miss myself. Juan was a low cat 2 and it sufficiently kicked our A$$. I know Bob did the same thing to some of you guys. I could do without that again but like I said I don't have a say in it. Sent from my iPhone I'm somewhat confused reading this, and many of the other threads. Didn't the euro over the last year, especially over the last winter, have several huge busts? I thought that over the last couple years or so the euro and gfs have had similar verification scores, and that the UKIE has been the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, if the euro does win this battle...prepare for an all out love fest for that model..lol. Until, the next Jan 27 mishap in NYC again. Boxing day 2010 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Beautiful storm The fish better give it props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 save a horse, 1 Euro bust last winter and people got out of the saddle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The other thing this does is takes away the PRE and any other rains that were forecast to fall this week. So we've seen the last of the rain for the week except maybe on the Cape..and it turns into a sunny, dry weekend up and down east coast from DC north. And the AN and dry pattern resumes Awesome, like last Oct we love above normal Octobers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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