CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC tracks are unreadable right now. They basically try to find the least error by using a compromise track that has little model support in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC tracks are unreadable right now. They basically try to find the least error by using a compromise track that has little model support in itself. Yeah to the general public that looks like they are forecasting a direct hit towards the major populous on the east coast in NYC area haha. I feel bad for the on-camera mets who have to run with that or show it on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Going to be interesting when they have to change that wide right. Interesting to see if the 6z GFS initialized the storm closer to 950mb as well - and the impacts that strength has on tracking vs 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Interesting to see if the 6z GFS initialized the storm closer to 950mb as well - and the impacts that strength has on tracking vs 0z... The trends in the ECM ensembles and the lack of any budging by the Euro though is very hard to bet against. It has been adamant about its track. The GFS has shifted around a lot. When you get three straight ECM runs showing something, and the EPS goes in that direction, hard to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still a huge spread outside 48 hrs...[ attachment=162657:image.jpeg] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The other thing this does is takes away the PRE and any other rains that were forecast to fall this week. So we've seen the last of the rain for the week except maybe on the Cape..and it turns into a sunny, dry weekend up and down east coast from DC north. And the AN and dry pattern resumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The other thing this does is takes away the PRE and any other rains that were forecast to fall this week. So we've seen the last of the rain for the week except maybe on the Cape..and it turns into a sunny, dry weekend up and down east coast from DC north. And the AN and dry pattern resumes Won't we still see rain on friday night from that ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is east of Oz at hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS still east. Looks like it's gonna be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Good ol' goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS still east. Looks like it's gonna be OTS. Yup. It's ovah. Move back to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 East of the Benchmark and up into the Maritimes, it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's funny. Tippy posted back a few pages that if you took a blend of the 12z Euro and everything other 12z product, then SNE is in play. And I have had that conversation jokingly with a few people. Wake up this morning, lo and behold the GFS did exactly that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 well, that settles that...Euro wins again...i know it's not a perfect model, but kudos to the team that created it...wish we could upgrade our american models to be like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Since when do we take the 6z GFS seriously? Like never, wait until new data arrives at 12z, before jumping to conclusions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's 6hr closer and the old myth of off hour runs is BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nice apple picking weather this weekend The bed I made with the Euro is comfy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Since when do we take the 6z GFS seriously? Like never, wait until new data arrives at 12z, before jumping to conclusions today. Fair enough, but the evidence is starting to build and the case for the Euro is getting stronger. There are virtually NO EC ensembles that show a direct impact from the core of Juaquin, only secondary LP'S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Won't we still see rain on friday night from that ULL? Probably not unless a few scattered showers move thru or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've wasted enough time on this the last few days. Glad I de invested yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 well, that settles that...Euro wins again...i know it's not a perfect model, but kudos to the team that created it...wish we could upgrade our american models to be like the Euro Well they certainly weren't saying that in NYC and Western New England after last year's blizzard debacle. Overall, it has superior resolution and obviously could see the weakening block and escape route prior to the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well they certainly weren't saying that in NYC and Western New England after last year's blizzard debacle. Overall, it has superior resolution and obviously could see the weakening block and escape route prior to the others. lol, in my post i'm pretty sure i said it's not a perfect model...but it sure does out perform the american model suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol at the 6z GFS. Just one of many possibilities I guess. Makes it a tad more interesting for the NE and the maritimes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I guess we should all listen to DT more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've wasted enough time on this the last few days. Glad I de invested yesterday. ok bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NHC track is a real disservice. I get it as a met nerd, but I have friends and family panicking after seeing it blasted on social media and the news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 are there any webcams for the Bahamas? here we are sitting behind computers microanalyzing every model run, but the Bahamas have been getting battered for days...would be interesting to see some live reports or footage of the conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NHC track is a real disservice. I get it as a met nerd, but I have friends and family panicking after seeing it blasted on social media and the news I could understand the tough spot yesterday, but you have to make a call right now. Maybe they wait until 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too many deep troughs by October. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too many deep troughs by October. Game over. pretty much. At least it was something that kept me tuned in, prep for winter. Headed to Taiwan Sunday so sort of happy is a miss don't want family alone during a storm.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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