ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it's gonna get fujiwara'd into ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it's gonna get fujiwara'd into ACY Has to be minimal cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Extrapolation from the latest I have takes it in toward ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 you mean toss? You can't just "toss" a model run b/c you don't agree with the outcome, you can disect it and disagree with it, but saying "nope, its wrong" is just bad for all of us. It's one of my pet peeves with these forums... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Moderate to heavy rains for all of SNE hour 111. NJ coastline gets whacked on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You can't just "toss" a model run b/c you don't agree with the outcome, you can disect it and disagree with it, but saying "nope, its wrong" is just bad for all of us. It's one of my pet peeves with these forums... My pet peeve is when people fujiwara words down your throat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I mean it's a large step towards the EURO. initially yes but ended up making a mess of NJ/NY/.LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You can't just "toss" a model run b/c you don't agree with the outcome, you can disect it and disagree with it, but saying "nope, its wrong" is just bad for all of us. It's one of my pet peeves with these forums... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Definite solid impact for SNE this run verbatim. But that was close to being 500 miles wide right...barely got sucked back in. So it's going ot be a trend to watch. Obviously we'll have to see if the Euro remains consistent later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 initially yes but ended up making a mess of NJ/NY/.LI No, it absolutely was a step towards the euro. I don't care where it ends dup on this run....just the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks No one did that....not sure what in the hell he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No, it absolutely was a step towards the euro. I don't care where it ends dup on this run....just the trend. maybe my between euro / gfs will pan out after it was "tossed" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 maybe my between euro / gfs will pan out after it was "tossed" yesterday I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It actually never landfalls in NJ this run, it almost does and then turns right and drifts north into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 All eyes on the Euro at 2AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It actually never landfalls in NJ this run, it almost does and then turns right and drifts north into LI. Yeah, looks like somewhere near Coney Island or JFK airport. Then starts to recurve out toward ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No one did that....not sure what in the hell he is talking about. We were repsonding to different messages at the same time! You clarified your statment of it being "not a good run" while I was responding to someone asking if it should be tossed. No harm, no foul. Let the model mayhem continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We were repsonding to different messages at the same time! You clarified your statment of it being "not a good run" while I was responding to someone asking if it should be tossed. No harm, no foul. Let the model mayhem continue! Oh, my bad. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That could be a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS initialized wrong by 30mb weaker, tell me that doesn't impact the physics of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can someone tell me if it has been verified that Recon found 130mph winds at the surface and a pressure of 946mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That could be a mess... image.png Verbatim, certainly. But, if the euro doesn't come west at all at 00z, then I'm definitely in agreement with Ray that this may very well just be the beginning of a cave to the OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS initialized wrong by 30mb weaker, tell me that doesn't impact the physics of the atmosphere. someone tweeted around 965mb so ~ 15mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, looks like somewhere near Coney Island or JFK airport. Then starts to recurve out toward ISP. Looks like about the most "thread the needle" result as possible...barely being captured by the skin of its teeth after taking a really wide turn...and the process takes long enough to allow the block to our north to retreat/weaken and allow the storm to gain latitude. As interesting as it would be to get one up here, I'm still thinking it's either south of the Delmarva or wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can someone tell me if it has been verified that Recon found 130mph winds at the surface and a pressure of 946mb? Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 3:43Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2015 Storm Name: Joaquin (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 5 Observation Number: 27 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 3:09:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°39'N 73°09'W (23.65N 73.15W) C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 220° at 117kts (From the SW at ~ 134.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.06 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ESE (123°) from the flight level center at 3:04:30Z Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 19kts (From the W at 22mph) Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center there was a 946 reading but not at the center it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So is it still a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If I don't hear about poor pressure initialization ever again I'd be a happy man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So is it still a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall? I don't think so...it's like 988-990mb when it finally comes ashore in LI. I doubt it would still have a core of sustained hurricane winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 So is it still a hurricane when it eventually makes landfall? Well, it never really makes "landfall" while it is a hurricane, but Hurricane force winds look to be felt along the New Jersey coast with Hurricane gusts along Long Island and south eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Verbatim, certainly. But, if the euro doesn't come west at all at 00z, then I'm definitely in agreement with Ray that this may very well just be the beginning of a cave to the OTS solution. True, but I think Tip jinxed us when commented earlier that none of the solutions were affecting New England. Although it may not have initialized with the proper pressure, the 0z run should have the extra data collected by NOAA earlier tonight. Interesting run, I wonder how it will effect the overall NHC track at 5 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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