40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow. HWRF places Lejune right in the ne quad of the eye wall. Lejune cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is a powerful beast that just wants to eat more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Cat. 4 by tomorrow afternoon....bank on it....I'll revise my earlier call of the lowest pressure attained to near 930mb....This system is so very nicely "round" at the surface....and now the shear is going bye bye....just in time for diurnal max. and nice bathwater!! LEK is the best! The dude is on like 98% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder if it will just get so powerful it resists the whole create its own environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I wonder if it will just get so powerful it resists the whole create its own environment If that were the happen then what the heck would be expected lol. Like what sort of track would we be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Could sitting and spinning over the same area churn up colder water that will in effect inhibit rapid intensification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 RECON is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would expect if Joaquin could create his own environment, than it would go more westward. Just my opinion. I could be wrong. But I heard that these type of hurricanes pump up heights to the northeast of the hurricane. Also I have a lot of my friends in SC, I am telling them to be aware of a hurricane named Joaquin, some of them never knew he existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Could sitting and spinning over the same area churn up colder water that will in effect inhibit rapid intensification? possible but it would have to sit over that area for quite some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Could sitting and spinning over the same area churn up colder water that will in effect inhibit rapid intensification? Not likely because he is still moving above 5mph, and he is over higher oceanic heat content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would expect if Joaquin could create his own environment, than it would go more westward. Just my opinion. I could be wrong. But I heard that these type of hurricanes pump up heights to the northeast of the hurricane. Also I have a lot of my friends in SC, I am telling them to be aware of a hurricane named Joaquin, some of them never knew he existed. That would be partly (or largely) due to latent heat release, no? I mean if we are talking about a system of such size and strength it would make sense to expect a ton of heat being released which would influence heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would expect if Joaquin could create his own environment, than it would go more westward. Just my opinion. I could be wrong. But I heard that these type of hurricanes pump up heights to the northeast of the hurricane. Also I have a lot of my friends in SC, I am telling them to be aware of a hurricane named Joaquin, some of them never knew he existed. YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is it me or does it seem like the northern extend of the tracks have been getting pushed back time wise. I mean now we're looking at Monday PM still well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 00z GFS is looking like fish fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Latest HH recon vortex message indicates the eye wall is open on the nw quadrant, likely seen on satellite imagery as Cold cloud temps have warmed in this quadrant. Could just be a temporary thing. Also pressure down to 950mb and winds up to 120mph, 105 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That would be partly (or largely) due to latent heat release, no? I mean if we are talking about a system of such size and strength it would make sense to expect a ton of heat being released which would influence heights. Yes latent heat release is what I am talking about. Plus to add to the vortex message data, the eye shrunk to 22nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 euro wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll see if the GFS tries to fujiwara this back NW at the last second, but it's certainly much further east than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFS didn't see that the pressure was 951mb at initialization. I think a category five hurricane if he attains this intensity would be able to sustain its own environment and head more westward towards the coastline. I think SC really needs to pay attention to this system over the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We'll see if the GFS tries to fujiwara this back NW at the last second, but it's certainly much further east than previous runs. It looks like it is trying to recapture and pull significantly further north up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OTS always been on the table. Regardless of outcome, this run shifted towards EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 oh boy at 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It looks like it is trying to recapture and pull significantly further north up the coast... Yeah it may be saved at the 11th hour...but quite the shift on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Unbelievable change in setup...18z to new 00z comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This could be rather interesting -- looks like it's trying to recapture and pull back NW. Might be a pretty good sized impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not a good run. you mean toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 105 meandering towards NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 you mean toss? I mean it's a large step towards the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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