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No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets


Ginx snewx

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Joaquin showing how strong he can get and we have no idea on his peak intensity limit.  He is showing us that we have a long time to go before we ever know the intensification phase in a hurricane or tropical cyclone.  Plus SHIPS shows the environment getting better for intensification.  Plus satellite imagery shows an eye developing and perfect upper level outflow developing in all quadrants.  Also the central convection is expanding westward.

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More from the AF309 #05:

235200 2346N 07246W 6909 02867 9632 +118 //// 231095 112 102 011 05
235230 2345N 07245W 7018 02778 9706 +128 //// 227096 113 096 043 01

 

234730 2358N 07258W 6972 02735 9493 +193 +083 050010 018 025 001 03

234800 2357N 07256W 6961 02749 9499 +183 +095 103003 007 020 000 00
234830 2355N 07255W 6967 02737 9499 +180 +101 173007 009 015 000 00

 

Cat 3 by 11pm seems likely

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Joaquin showing how strong he can get and we have no idea on his peak intensity limit.  He is showing us that we have a long time to go before we ever know the intensification phase in a hurricane or tropical cyclone.  Plus SHIPS shows the environment getting better for intensification.  Plus satellite imagery shows an eye developing and perfect upper level outflow developing in all quadrants.  Also the central convection is expanding westward.

Model tracking errors have gotten better, but as you say, they have a long way to go with respect to intensity.

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Co-located low level convergence centered right at the center of Joaquin and centered upper level divergent pattern along with drop in wind shear of 5-10 knots currently and expected to drop more by 36 hours, Joaquin could continue to drop all the way down to 925mb before an eyewall replacement cycle.  Also winds could reach 125-135 knots.

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