Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd wait before putting all my eggs in one basket, only thing is like the Mets have said its a MA or OTS not a NE threat. 11 of my 12 eggs are in that basket. I'm holding onto the golden egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 That looks like majority are OTS to me. I'd have to see a 144 to see what direction they are heading, hard to tell from a static map, other reports are 31/52 are East coast hits, so consensus is questionable. This is a hard one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The last couple satellite frames are getting a touch of that buzz saw appeal. Nice symmetrical CDO, vaguely milky venting out the top, hint of an eye smack-dab in the middle. Starting to look quite nice. It appears to be moving south (not southwest) the last few frames, maybe even SE. Maybe it's just my untrained eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 11 of my 12 eggs are in that basket. I'm holding onto the golden egg 11/12 footballs were supposedly deflated, thanks Mort. at least you made a final call. I am waiting for another day of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 5pm..right up Chesapeake Bay per NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Windshield wiper NHC forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 . Preparations to protect life and property within the warningareas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made thisafternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlanticstates and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of theforecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normallyexcellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United Stateseast coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, andincludes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in theCarolinas.3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models withas much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series ofmissions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Serviceis launching extra balloon soundings.4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three daysaway, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surgeimpacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stayswell out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderatecoastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic andnortheastern states through the weekend.5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could berequired as early as Thursday evening.6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavyrains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. Thisinclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it headtoward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from thehurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areaseven if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Windshield wiper NHC forecast That does not accurately reflect the northern extent of their cone, which does not extend into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right up the gut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Summary of 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...information ---------------------------------------------- location...24.3n 73.1w about 175 mi...285 km ENE of the central Bahamas maximum sustained winds...85 mph...140 km/h present movement...SW or 225 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h minimum central pressure...967 mb...28.56 inches For all the OTS fads after 12z Euro fads, Harv too thought a VA track most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 That does not accurately reflect the northern extent of their cone, which does not extend into CT. BDR is in the cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 BDR is in the cone Yeah, I meant it doesn't cover CT and part of RI like that map shows. It clips the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 HH recon AF plane expected to be in Joaquin after 2330z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 BDR is in the cone I can see the outline of the cone from my office in Danbury! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 According to the latest SHIPS model, the decrease of wind shear to 7 knots and the highest ocean heat content is expected to occur between hours 36-72. So I anticipate this to be the peak of Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On a serious note, that is not a good track. Delmarva, NJ and LI are still going to get pounded. Surge running up Chesapeake Bay? Rowboat time in Baltimore and possibly DC before it passes to the east. Mountains of PA are going to get drenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'd have to see a 144 to see what direction they are heading, hard to tell from a static map, other reports are 31/52 are East coast hits, so consensus is questionable. This is a hard one Most of those low tracks seem to go NE from there on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 On a serious note, that is not a good track. Delmarva, NJ and LI are still going to get pounded. Surge running up Chesapeake Bay? Rowboat time in Baltimore and possibly DC before it passes to the east. Mountains of PA are going to get drenched. Isabel redeux with Agnes flooding, yea better hope the Euro is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 . Preparations to protect life and property within the warning areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion. 2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas. lol...you know they are ripping their hair out right now trying to figure out which camp to follow. Amazing the ECMWF carries so much weight as its just one model. If it was the UKMET that was a wide miss, it would've been tossed immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't fall in love with NHC track yet. They have no choice really but to hedge impact. Reality may be that those forecasters are crapping pants and are worried about euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Most of those low tracks seem to go NE from there on the EPS. Farthest north landfall member around SNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't fall in love with NHC track yet. They have no choice really but to hedge impact. Reality may be that those forecasters are crapping pants and are worried about euro . No doubt. But wouldn't more sensible course have been to keep the 2pm track (100 miles offshore)? Chessy interests are going to be freaking out over this, along with the scaredy-cats in the nation's capital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looking forward to a Met here making a call , lol holy sh it what a clusterF. One of ours has made a call Mitch is all in for the GFS UKMET GGEM NAVY solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looking forward to a Met here making a call , lol holy sh it what a clusterF. One of ours has made a call Mitch is all in for the GFS UKMET GGEM NAVY solutionI don't think I could make a legit call this far out with disparity of the modelsI can personally make one because no one cares about mine. But when one of our red taggers makes a call people listen. Give them 12-24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The JMA's solution was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 The JMA's solution was interesting. Congrats myrtle beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think I could make a legit call this far out with disparity of the models I can personally make one because no one cares about mine. But when one of our red taggers makes a call people listen. Give them 12-24 hours earliest models are 72 hrs to LF, what a hairy situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't fall in love with NHC track yet. They have no choice really but to hedge impact. Reality may be that those forecasters are crapping pants and are worried about euro . Typically when you see the Euro remain so constant and consistent it certainly does throw up some flags but there is something about this case that really makes me wonder. The Euro completely handles the riding just off the coast along with that cut-off in the eastern Atlantic...It seems like it develops a fairly deep trough in that region and this actually allows for those heights to the west to build and for the high pressure to slide somewhat NE which opens room for the system to curve NE. I'm not really sure if there is anything that justifies for those features to develop as advertised on the Euro. Other than these features, the Euro seems pretty similar with the configuration across the eastern United States with of course the only difference being the trough doesn't capture Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah I am torn. I mean I feel that OTS look...but if one little feature is off..euro to Fuji happy etc...then it is a different ball game. Still kind of early to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 what a curve ball the Euro says out to sea...i'm sure 2am will bring some good clues as to what is actually going to happen...sucks to have to be the forecaster to issue the forecast track...one minute they have it hitting the outter banks, or it could potentially be on it's way to Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.