Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There's probably a 50/50 chance that Euro is correct How can you be so sure?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think there is only one answer for a forecast right now, if you had to make one of course. somebody better make one tomorrow, think what is at stake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How about this not-wishcasted totally plausible solution that we don't 'want' to have happen... I 1/2::1/2 compromise between the Euro and every other technology available to the science of miss-guidance -- Yep... that course of least regret brings a track directly over Worcester. who's with me! the upshot of that highly likely solution is that Kevina would end up on the dullard gray rainy side, while we here in the E get EF2 suction spot sideways carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 somebody better make one tomorrow, think what is at stake I think NHC makes a major adjustment at 5, bringing the cone from SC to DE. The current track is really, really misleading with respect to available guidance, and I just don't see how you can put an OTS forecast out there at this juncture when people need to be preparing for the worst. It wouldn't be a major shock to any of us if the Euro ended up right, as everything has been moving south over the last 24 hours, most notably Joaquin, and the Euro led the way on that. But I just can't see how you could forecast that to the public right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think NHC makes a major adjustment at 5, bringing the cone from SC to DE. The current track is really, really misleading with respect to available guidance, and I just don't see how you can put an OTS forecast out there at this juncture when people need to be preparing for the worst. It wouldn't be a major shock to any of us if the Euro ended up right, as everything has been moving south over the last 24 hours, most notably Joaquin, and the Euro led the way on that. But I just can't see how you could forecast that to the public right now. It's important to note that the NHC even recognizes that the tropical cyclone only stays in the day 5 cone 60-70% of the time. There is a lot of uncertainty built into these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 this thing's trying to wrap those inky black strato-prober cloud tops around the n side... Watch this thing go category 5 just to chap everyone's azz that've been taking Schadenfreude by beating people over their posting-heads with their own love. Are there any posters from the Bahamas? Man, I bet the ocean footage is getting awesome there with that thing stem wound like ten football fields away - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That being said, consensus is going to start tugging their forecast west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rumor has it that the Euro ens are now OTS..Just a rumor until clarification however. If so..we should have known. Nino's don't like US cane hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like there is still a huge amount of spread on the EPS mean. Judging from the mean it would appear that the largest clustering is West of the OP but East of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Rumor has it that the Euro ens are now OTS..Just a rumor until clarification however. If so..we should have known. Nino's don't like US cane hits Definitely a larger number showing out to sea than prior runs, but still enough members showing Mid Atlantic threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The ensemble mean is definitely fish food for the TC itself...it tries to sort of regenerate the extratropical cyclone in the gulf stream off VA/Delmarva...but the mean can get a bit fuzzy by D5-6...there's probably a few hits in there affecting the mean by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Boy I'd love to be an intern entering data points on a mind numbing climate matrix down at NHC head-quarters ... pretending not to listen in on the 4:30 conference call ... I mean, that track guidance they mapped out on the earlier advisory would pretty much bring consideration of the futility of NYC's very existence to bare. (Or is it "bear" - maybe Zeus can tackle that major priority) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely a larger number showing out to sea than prior runs, but still enough members showing Mid Atlantic threat. That's all I needed to see. Euro likely going to win this IMO. Unreal. I think it being so far SW so early allowed it to catch on that the ULL would not capture it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How can you be so sure?! Because it's either right or its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think it's a good sign for the storm geese that the Euro's ensemble decided to collapse in favor of the operational -- if that interpretation is correct. This could turn into one catastrophic folly for the American's in the cold war of modeling... Interesting the UKMET sides tightly with the capture crew - but that model is typically guilty of espionage anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Boy I'd love to be an intern entering data points on a mind numbing climate matrix down at NHC head-quarters ... pretending not to listen in on the 4:30 conference call ... I mean, that track guidance they mapped out on the earlier advisory would pretty much bring consideration of the futility of NYC's very existence to bare. (Or is it "bear" - maybe Zeus can tackle that major priority) It's probably the case that their 5 PM update will adjust in the direction of the NC majority/consensus, but blend in a degree of their prior forecast if for no other reason than their proclivity for update-to-update consistency. That's usually how they do. And, for the record, it's "bayre," you cretin. Get thee to a bookery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Because it's either right or its wrong. Nothing positions one so deliciously well for declaring that he was right all along so much as having never really said anything in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've made my bed with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Man, I bet the ocean footage is getting awesome there with that thing stem wound like ten football fields away - Per @CharlesOrloff on twitter, a few cams. http://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's probably the case that their 5 PM update will adjust in the direction of the NC majority/consensus, but blend in a degree of their prior forecast if for no other reason than their proclivity for update-to-update consistency. That's usually how they do. And, for the record, it's "bayre," you cretin. Get thee to a bookery. Nut uh ...it's bring to "Bayer" ... because of the nascent migraine involved with having one's spelling corrected by the nation's finest in roused rabble - Seriously, I don't know dude. That's weird hearin' that the Euro ensemble tried to follow the operational because he's so cool and dreamy and the chicks dig 'im. They all wanna be like Mike! Been a while since we've had a solid, black and white disparate model fight. It'll be interesting in re-analysis to determine which was right, and if they were right for the "right" reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Per @CharlesOrloff on twitter, a few cams. http://www.abacoescape.com/PopupWebcam.html hard to tell.. there's an apparent reef out there that might be cutting things down some. Should get scarier later - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 I don't think it's a good sign for the storm geese that the Euro's ensemble decided to collapse in favor of the operational -- if that interpretation is correct. This could turn into one catastrophic folly for the American's in the cold war of modeling... Interesting the UKMET sides tightly with the capture crew - but that model is typically guilty of espionage anyway. there seems to be no consensus from what I see from Ryan Maue of wxbells tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 According to the EPS, we are still 5 days out... Ginx that's a 120 hour EPS map, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The last couple satellite frames are getting a touch of that buzz saw appeal. Nice symmetrical CDO, vaguely milky venting out the top, hint of an eye smack-dab in the middle. Starting to look quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 there seems to be no consensus from what I see from Ryan Maue of wxbells tweets The majority of those are East and OTS..Not nearly as many west anymore. Sucks..but what can you do.. It's a strong nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The ensemble mean is definitely fish food for the TC itself...it tries to sort of regenerate the extratropical cyclone in the gulf stream off VA/Delmarva...but the mean can get a bit fuzzy by D5-6...there's probably a few hits in there affecting the mean by that point. I think it may be a fish. Time t hedge in that direction. I should have stuck with my visceral gut lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 According to the EPS, we are still 5 days out... Ginx that's a 120 hour EPS map, right? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 there seems to be no consensus from what I see from Ryan Maue of wxbells tweets That looks like majority are OTS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 The majority of those are East and OTS..Not nearly as many west anymore. Sucks..but what can you do.. It's a strong nino I'd wait before putting all my eggs in one basket, only thing is like the Mets have said its a MA or OTS not a NE threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I agree, Joaquin is getting that buzz saw like appeal on satellite imagery, indicative of a future intensification phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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