40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Everything has been going EURO's was so far....quick intensification, and sw jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes. Really @EdValleeWx: @NJWeatherBlogs well east overall versus other guidance. A bit west of 0z ECMWF. Look how strong the blocking is. It might go east or west, but it's not coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have to start to strongly consider this solution. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Boy this is a real tough decision for NHC. I mean now is when you start preps if you believe every model except the euro. With a usually reliable model not budging..what do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The H5 setup is so anomalous and bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes. Really @EdValleeWx: @NJWeatherBlogs well east overall versus other guidance. A bit west of 0z ECMWF. If the west trend keeps up, it might clip ACK by Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Everything has been going EURO's was so far....quick intensification, and sw jog. why? Plus it is the best model and has been persistent in depicting the fish. Man, this maybe the tropical version of 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look how strong the blocking is. It might go east or west, but it's not coming north.If the models are too strong with the block then it certainly could. But as modeled not too likely. Though it seems we still have no idea of final solution as modeling today was no help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have to start wondering if the other guidance will head towards the EURO solution or the other way around. We are finally seeing results of an eye forming on IR satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro will be hero, or zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Have to hope the EURO pulls a 1/2015.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Plus it is the best model and has been persistent in depicting the fish. Man, this maybe the tropical version of 2010 just to be clear, I'm not expecting much here.. but for NC/VA yes.. anyway was just curious about your thoughts. But if we end up in the middle between GFS/EURO.. then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How much rain does the PRE drop on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am wrong, but I still find it hard to believe there may be a siggy impact to SNE. I feel like it is either OTS, or into NC. I'm not sure the pattern can be conducive to a hit near NYC on east. So basically regardless of what model you believe...I don't think it matters much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 just to be clear, I'm not expecting much here.. but for NC/VA yes.. anyway was just curious about your thoughts. But if we end up in the middle between GFS/EURO.. then.... I think it's either, or....doubt a compromise. Either camp will capitulate entirely. EURO ens are the tie breaker for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How much rain does the PRE drop on the Euro? Barely any except for CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Barely any except for CC. Cape Cod, MA to you, pal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro vs the world. Like I said early ... and I'll embellish at this point: potential greatest modeling coup in the history of the technology - ...'course, got to get it to verify first - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am wrong, but I still find it hard to believe there may be a siggy impact to SNE. I feel like it is either OTS, or into NC. I'm not sure the pattern can be conducive to a hit near NYC on east. So basically regardless of what model you believe...I don't think it matters much here. Yeah you need a big weakness in the middle for it to come north and it doesn't appear that will happen...not until well after landfall. We could get a bunch of remnants coming up the coast if it landfalls in the Carolinas, but probably not before that. Or it could just go the Euro route and have very little impact at all except some modest amounts of nasty cold rain on NE winds under that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Boy this is a real tough decision for NHC. I mean now is when you start preps if you believe every model except the euro. With a usually reliable model not budging..what do you do? I'd think it's even harder for them with the (previous run) euro ensembles all over the place instead of supporting the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the west trend keeps up, it might clip ACK by Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 70/25/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Boy this is a real tough decision for NHC. I mean now is when you start preps if you believe every model except the euro. With a usually reliable model not budging..what do you do? I mean you have to make some sort of decision by tomorrow if you are going to provide adequate time for prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am wrong, but I still find it hard to believe there may be a siggy impact to SNE. I feel like it is either OTS, or into NC. I'm not sure the pattern can be conducive to a hit near NYC on east. So basically regardless of what model you believe...I don't think it matters much here. Was gonna post same. Just because a track is the average of all guidance doesn't mean it is the most likely. In this case, this either gets captured early west or it gets fujiwaraed east. This also means that unfortunately for NHC, hedging with a mean track to the public may not be the most likely prediction as depicted, but I guess there's no easier way to convey possible impact with uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What if the Euro ENS have say 70% members with east coast hits up and down coast? Will that give confidence op is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Maybe I am wrong, but I still find it hard to believe there may be a siggy impact to SNE. I feel like it is either OTS, or into NC. I'm not sure the pattern can be conducive to a hit near NYC on east. So basically regardless of what model you believe...I don't think it matters much here. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What if the Euro ENS have say 70% members with east coast hits up and down coast? Will that give confidence op is wrong? Yes, but they will highlight the potential for a VA/NC landfall, as they have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes, but they will highlight the potential for a VA/NC landfall, as they have been. I was asking a meteorlogist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I saw this brought up as well. Take a look out west. You have a s/w trough diving south and helping to slow or pull the trough west, out near the Pacific coast at hr 60. If that happens, then ridging over the Plains may develop and possibly slow down the cutoff trough over the SE that helps capture Joaquin. I mean talk about a complicated series of interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.