40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There was no doubt some sort of decaying frontal boundary that extend N-S through the region of SNE, as the re-analysis features a trough along the Apps and a -NAO west based block imposing resistance E-N of the easter seaboard. Said front arrived with the trough, and since the trough stalled, the front sort of aligned parallel to the coast and rained out over a few days. But all that happened well prior to 1938 even passing PR. The trouble was, those antecedent synoptics didn't really break down as the storm approached the "suck up" zone... Once the TC detected the S to N flow east of said trough, and was blocked by the lingering west-based -NAO, it had no physical alternative but to shoot N through a slit steering corridor like a Noanamá Chocó tribesman on a blow gun hunt. Point is, ...the rains prior to 1938 were not really "PRE" at that time. Aside, it's hard to assess a PRE when a system is hauling azz like that. You're going to get a western "bulge" in front and so forth, much more obvious by a system like David (1980?). David was 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 David was 1979. yet, that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I def. feel as though a large sne impact is least likely. I think it's either sw of here, or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Got quadruple bunned for my overnight posts but seems like the weenies are jumping on board now. Jay I loved the play by play...they're just haters cause you tower over all of em. Give em a smack down if they keep it up !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Who among us has not become antsy and anxious while attempting to learn the secret plans of an androgynous foe? Have some tea. Let it quell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to acknowledge they have no clue where this is going and effects could be felt from Maine to NC. GEFS show plenty of north hits as does the EPS We were told yesterday this was going OTS Bottom line is anyone saying there's no effects in SNE and not to worry is doing a disservice Noone knows By whom? Pretty sure you're misrepresenting a lot with that statement. Models, NHC, and mets around here included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Congrats NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS further south into NC now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Jay I loved the play by play...they're just haters cause you tower over all of em. Give em a smack down if they keep it up !! This. It was easy to wake up and quickly see what the Euro showed. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yesterday OTS. Today a crushing East coast hit to our south. Next up should be a LI hit at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 looks like NC/VA are most likely to feel the brunt, some showers/breezy weather for SNE. Still will be glued to TV watching this unfold down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Jay I loved the play by play...they're just haters cause you tower over all of em. Give em a smack down if they keep it up !! Yep, he's the New England Patriots of model play-by-play Excessive winning breeds contempt - so of course the Patriots HAVE to be cheating, because the alternative is what? accepting that x,y,z tea,m might just not be as good?! We don't doubt that the Pats fiddle with things. But they do not engage in "fiddling" any more than any other team in that hypocrite, petty douche league -- and the pot has no right to call the kettle black. Cheaters can't accuse cheaters - a simple precept that is just not being honed/explored/exposed enough in all that. but I digress - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yesterday OTS. Today a crushing East coast hit to our south. Next up should be a LI hit at 18z Dude, stop - no one said out to sea yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's incredible to think that we are going to miss our second hurricane in 3 years due to a left hook. Time is ticking as we are overdue. Can't keep missing them forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Dude, stop - no one said out to sea yesterday...Well they certainly did but you were t involved in the conversation and may have missed it.However in this case, I was referring to the last 24 hours of GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 HH recon data vortex message indicates that Joaquin's eye wall is closed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Good to see this trending away now. Good luck NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well they certainly did but you were t involved in the conversation and may have missed it. However in this case, I was referring to the last 24 hours of GFS runs I did. It was a perfunctory assessment based off the EURO and climo....which still could verify. Certainly not favored at present, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Kevin, no one said it was going out to sea yesterday, just the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yep, he's the New England Patriots of model play-by-play Excessive winning breeds contempt - so of course the Patriots HAVE to be cheating, because the alternative is what? accepting that x,y,z tea,m might just not be as good?! We don't doubt that the Pats fiddle with things. But they do not engage in "fiddling" any more than any other team in that hypocrite, petty douche league -- and the pot has no right to call the kettle black. Cheaters can't accuse cheaters - a simple precept that is just not being honed/explored/exposed enough in all that. but I digress - Amen regarding Pats. Imagine the response had you posted that in the NYC/MidAtl forums...! Looking at 12z GFS... it does track further south in the next day compared to 6z/0z, similar to EC runs. But the system is not as deep by 0z-12z Saturday compared to 6z/0z GFS runs, and perhaps as I was mentioning last night allows an earlier capture and sooner left hook into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS initialized pressure too weak so that may be part of the reason for the quick hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Good to see this trending away now. Good luck NC. Still a while to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This thread is close to unbreable to read at the moment. I might wait 24 hours and check back in...model guidance is probably not going to be all that helpful yet anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Forecasted to be a major now too. Actually if it buried itself, I think it risks scooting NE too. Euro solution. Right, we were saying this yesterday. The sooner this thing feels the tug north, the more likely landfall is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes...it led the way on that for several runs in the medium range. Doesn't mean it's right now though. But there's still a lot of uncertainty. There was the CMC too, but it didn't have consistent solutions run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 #101 LakeEffectKing Posted 45 minutes ago "He tracks hurricanes blindfolded." 3,196 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Liverpool, NY Very preliminary thought based on future conditions for Joaquin....I think he maxes out at 945ish pressure, and touches Cat. 4 status in a day or so....as for track...way too much uncertainty....especially with the potential redevelopment of Ida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Amen regarding Pats. Imagine the response had you posted that in the NYC/MidAtl forums...! Looking at 12z GFS... it does track further south in the next day compared to 6z/0z, similar to EC runs. But the system is not as deep by 0z-12z Saturday compared to 6z/0z GFS runs, and perhaps as I was mentioning last night allows an earlier capture and sooner left hook into NC. Yeah, the vitriol would have been more epic than any J. impact, certainly ... My thinking last night with a harder capture was really more centered around the strength of the quasi-cut-off. But yeah, there are other parameters that play a role in those mechanics. I'm not sure a weaker system is one of them, though. Weaker systems get left behind -- a.k.a. the NAM. It's initialized the system as a paltry closed isobar when it's already down below 990 or whatever it is... It has to do with vertical integration through a deeper amount of troposphere. Shallow weak systems don't "tap" into the steering fields, and then the on-going convection and its' coupling with the lower levels are thus not being directed by said steering ... The stronger initializations are in fact tapping into the cut-off more effectively/affected... But, that opens a different can of warms ...is the cut-off modeled right? Cut-offs are notoriously badly handled, depth...placement, longevity. Name a parameter in space and time and I'll show you a multitude of guidance types that can't really handle them all too well. With that native uncertainty ... any interaction with a J. has to immediately be taken with a degree of incredulity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Canadian into NC. Road trio to Ray's old cot at Camp Lejune? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago This 12z run from GFS is quite bit diff from prev in many places...didn't think it was particularly good from get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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