No Joaquin the park forecast for Mets

[CoastalWx]

NHC track now just SE of ACY at 8am Monday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NHC track now just SE of ACY at 8am Monday.

Gotta figure the longer this buries itself sw, the more likely  southern solution.

 

Deepening trend seems to have leveled....

[CoastalWx]

Gotta figure the longer this buries itself sw, the more likely southern solution.

Deepening trend seems to have leveled....

Forecasted to be a major now too.

Actually if it buried itself, I think it risks scooting NE too. Euro solution.

[dryslot]

[HoarfrostHubb]

Exactly why my preference is for a NC LF.

Just a question... when you say your preference, is that to see if your met reasoning comes to fruition? Not meant as any sort of slam... or Are you looking to see the fury of a decent 'cane hitting a US region?

[Damage In Tolland]

Very dangerous location. Almost no way that would miss LF NJ up to SNE

[TalcottWx]

Got quadruple bunned for my overnight posts but seems like the weenies are jumping on board now.

[Gwhizkids]

Very dangerous location. Almost no way that would miss LF NJ up to SNE

Not to mention that even if it headed due east from that 8 am Monday position, the water funneled up into the NY Bight, Raritan Bay and NY Harbor would be tremendous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting excrept from the 11am DISCO:

 Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed,

[MarkO]

Slow mover. yawn. 

 

Rain is likely the biggest impact. 

 

Question for the met's. Can we even get a warm core storm in these latitudes?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Got quadruple bunned for my overnight posts but seems like the weenies are jumping on board now.

You were posting every 12 seconds

[WNash]

Bob sucked for 90% of us.

 

Bob for me was a couple gusty hours and some sticks blown down in Harvard Yard. A total nothingburger.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting excerpt from the 11am AFD:

 

 Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments
of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an
increase in the forecast forward speed

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just a question... when you say your preference, is that to see if your met reasoning comes to fruition? Not meant as any sort of slam... or Are you looking to see the fury of a decent 'cane hitting a US region?

Fury....but being right wouldn't hurt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting excrept from the 11am DISCO:

 Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments

of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an

increase in the forecast forward speed,

 

 

Slow mover. yawn. 

 

Rain is likely the biggest impact. 

 

Question for the met's. Can we even get a warm core storm in these latitudes?

[nutmegfriar]

Very dangerous location. Almost no way that would miss LF NJ up to SNE

And with Bastardi predicting further ramp-up in strength and no weakening until Sunday, that track would be a huge problem for Philly to NYC at the least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecasted to be a major now too.

Actually if it buried itself, I think it risks scooting NE too. Euro solution.

They still think that may be conservative.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like they are starting to acquiesce to the weight of the mean ...sans the last three cycles of the Euro.

 

Quick comment:  man, ...imagine if the Euro was right.  What an epic coup for that model if this thing just abruptly did and about right and bee-lined to the graveyard like that. It's so dead panned that it's almost a comedy act in that model ... yet, I guess it can't be disposed entirely; there is certainly no 100% in this game. Only relative degrees of likeliness'  

 

So they're are hooking more now... I guess at the end of the day, mankind's hands are cuffed.  If anyone has the ballz to go outside the box of the modeling mean and represent some sort of special insight, than more power to him/her.  But having two hookers bang the MA in as little as 2 or 3 years is pretty fantastic considering Sandy was like ...the first time I think it was espoused, that ever happened.  Now twice?   

 

Nature does this from time to time,  though...  The never-cans happen just to distill the arrogance of what science knows. 

[dryslot]

[Typhoon Tip]

Interesting excrept from the 11am DISCO:

 Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments

of the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an

increase in the forecast forward speed,

 

The meteorology for that has to do with interacting with that "cut-off" 

 

if it gets linked into that, the circulation becomes the steering field, and it's sort of analogous to watching a piece of kitchen sink spoog accelerate when it enters the vortex at the drain. 

[dryslot]

Bob sucked for 90% of us.

 

Bob= 12" water in the basement up here, No power for 7 days

[Damage In Tolland]

And with Bastardi predicting further ramp-up in strength and no weakening until Sunday, that track would be a huge problem for Philly to NYC at the least.

@MJVentrice: Things can still chance but NHC now putting a hurricane to impact the Mid-Atlantic and NE. NYC a possible outcome http://t.co/AiX1dyrU1Y

[CTWeatherFreak]

Was the Euro the only/first  major model (outlier like now?) that got the westward turn right with Sandy?

[ORH_wxman]

Was the Euro the only/first  major model (outlier like now?) that got the westward turn right with Sandy?

 

Yes...it led the way on that for several runs in the medium range. Doesn't mean it's right now though.

 

But there's still a lot of uncertainty.

[Damage In Tolland]

One thing I was thinking about and it's probably got nothing to do with anything. But I've long been fascinated with 1938 cane. One thing that they always talk about in reading on it is all the rain that fell in the days leading up to it. It may have been a similar situation like we have today with stalled front or it could have been a PRE.. But just thought it was something that could potentially parallel this , should Joaquin come north

[Typhoon Tip]

By the way ... I've heard some clatter on here about J. being compactor and not nearly as much of a concern because of that, outside her/his (did we decide a gender here?) immediate envelope.

 

I have issues with that presumption...  

 

Firstly, the climatology of systems gaining latitude is that they expand their wind field.  They do this because the ambient slp is higher at this latitude, so the wind field has to expand - sans a scenario where the slp is anomalously low.  Perhaps.  

 

But also, J. ...not too dissimilar to Sandy for this one factor alone ... has a big high situated N of Maine and moving E.  As very low pressure pushes N it will instantiate a PGF that (similar to the first point) will cause a very robust and broad LLJ.  

 

If J. curls strongly W and smashes into the outerbanks and Va like that, the compact argument gets a nod...but even then, some expansion is likely up the coast ...perahaps as far as NYC.  And you only need 45 mph guess (or so) to impose a problem for infrastructure -- particularly after an extended period of quiescence hasn't "rattled" things to clean house.  

 

I mean...gosh, there's a lot of moving part about this. I wouldn't be asserting anything if I was you... Also, if J. somehow avoids the purer capture scenario and comes in higher up the MA, SNE WILL GET BLASTED by some sort of wind response in that scenario.  

[CTWeatherFreak]

Yes...it led the way on that for several runs in the medium range. Doesn't mean it's right now though.

 

But there's still a lot of uncertainty.

 

Yup, got that.  Thanks.. In meterology like stock markets, past isnt prologue, although we use past results as precedent often, mostly with patten analysis and anolgues.  But with model success, not sure how successful that is other than in recognizing and utilizing past exhibited biases..

[IsentropicLift]

By the way ... I've heard some clatter on here about J. being compactor and not nearly as much of a concern because of that, outside her/his (did we decide a gender here?) immediate envelope.

 

I have issues with that presumption...  

 

Firstly, the climatology of systems gaining latitude is that they expand their wind field.  They do this because the ambient slp is higher at this latitude, so the wind field has to expand - sans a scenario where the slp is anomalously low.  Perhaps.  

 

But also, J. ...not too dissimilar to Sandy for this one factor alone ... has a big high situated N of Maine and moving E.  As very low pressure pushes N it will instantiate a PGF that (similar to the first point) will cause a very robust and broad LLJ.  

 

If J. curls strongly W and smashes into the outerbanks and Va like that, the compact argument gets a nod...but even then, some expansion is likely up the coast ...perahaps as far as NYC.  And you only need 45 mph guess (or so) to impose a problem for infrastructure -- particularly after an extended period of quiescence hasn't "rattled" things to clean house.  

 

I mean...gosh, there's a lot of moving part about this. I would be asserting anything if I was you... Also, if J. somehow avoids the purer capture scenario and comes in higher up the MA, SNE WILL GET BLASTED by some sort of wind response in that scenario.  

Furthermore, the LLJ is already strong thanks to the negatively tilted trough coming up the coast. I am not sure how much of this would mix down but it's quite windy just above the surface.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

One thing I was thinking about and it's probably got nothing to do with anything. But I've long been fascinated with 1938 cane. One thing that they always talk about in reading on it is all the rain that fell in the days leading up to it. It may have been a similar situation like we have today with stalled front or it could have been a PRE.. But just thought it was something that could potentially parallel this , should Joaquin come north

 

There was no doubt some sort of decaying frontal boundary that extend N-S through the region of SNE, as the re-analysis features a trough along the Apps and a -NAO west based block imposing resistance E-N of the easter seaboard.  Said front arrived with the trough, and since the trough stalled, the front sort of aligned parallel to the coast and rained out over a few days.

 

But all that happened well prior to 1938 even passing PR.   The trouble was, those antecedent synoptics didn't really break down as the storm approached the "suck up" zone... Once the TC detected the S to N flow east of said trough, and was blocked by the lingering west-based -NAO, it had no physical alternative but to shoot N through a slit steering corridor like a Noanamá Chocó tribesman on a blow gun hunt.  

 

Point is, ...the rains prior to 1938 were not really "PRE" at that time.   

 

Aside, it's hard to assess a PRE when a system is hauling azz like that.  You're going to get a western "bulge" in front and over-lapping WAA vomit and so forth, much more obvious by a system like David (1980?). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Forecasted to be a major now too.

Actually if it buried itself, I think it risks scooting NE too. Euro solution.

The EURO is locked onto that....it nailed the quicker intensification, and the protracted southwesterly jog....hmmmmm