40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You said you like to be objective and realistic so I can't see how with the NHC low certainty forecast you can make that declaration yet. I'm aware of what your point is but it's safe to say it's pretty damn uncertain of what will happen, likely not an sne hit right now, but we can't say NBD yet. I'm sorry, not favoring a 1938 redux isn't realistic, I guess. My objective, reality based opinion as of now is for relatively minimal impact here in sne. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yup. That's looking more and more likely. Why can't you be objective and realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to acknowledge they have no clue where this is going and effects could be felt from Maine to NC. GEFS show plenty of north hits as does the EPS We were told yesterday this was going OTS Bottom line is anyone saying there's no effects in SNE and not to worry is doing a disservice Noone knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to prepare for the idea that it is quite possible the effects are not very interesting in SNE. Doesn't matter. Something to track after months of boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Upon a superficial, cursory glance yesterday, I offered up a generic, climo based outcome. I admitted as much. After digesting it last night, seems pretty likely that it is going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm sorry, not favoring a 1938 redux isn't realistic, I guess. My objective, reality based opinion as of now is for relatively minimal impact here in sne. Sorry. Being realistic in meteorology usually involves conservatism at multiple day lead times for possible highly anomalous events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Doesn't matter. Something to track after months of boredom. Sure, but it's also important to understand reality too. I think most agree that the track is certainly up in the air to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some need to prepare for the idea that it is quite possible the effects are not very interesting in SNE. Give'em the cane, give us another epic winter. Fair compromise IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Doesn't matter. Something to track after months of boredom. Absolutely. TBH, the most captivating outcome is a LF in NC, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pressure down to 970mb on new pass. Should have a strong cat 2 by tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I'm sorry, not favoring a 1938 redux isn't realistic, I guess. My objective, reality based opinion as of now is for relatively minimal impact here in sne. Sorry. Being realistic in meteorology usually involves conservatism at multiple day lead times for possible highly anomalous events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Being realistic in meteorology usually involves conservatism at multiple day lead times for possible highly anomalous events. Betting against a destructive landfall is inherently well grounded and realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pressure down to 970mb on new pass. Should have a strong cat 2 by tonight Yea, the winds will catch up soon......that is a low pressure for a very minimal cane....that pressure is on par with a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yea, the winds will catch up soon......that is a low pressure for a very minimal cane....that pressure is on par with a cat 2. They estimated it 20mb too weak on their 5 AM advisory. Once the models ingest the correct data and pressure..that's when we may see some changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 They estimated it 20mb too weak on their 5 AM advisory. Once the models ingest the correct data and pressure..that's when we may see some changes We'll see. Intuitively, a more powerful system is less susceptible to capture, and more prone to poleward advancement, and ultimately take on an easterly component. Were that to happen, OTS would probably still be a better bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We'll see. Intuitively, a more powerful system is less susceptible to capture, and more prone to poleward movement, and ultimately with an easterly component. Were that to happen, OTS would probably still be a better bet With the strong and massive block that seems very unlikely. That ridge isn't going to just erode. OTS seems very low prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 With the strong and massive block that seems very unlikely. That ridge isn't going to just erode. OTS seems very low prob Yea. We'll see.....I'll cross that bridge if I need to. Right now, go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean is joining the GFS camp, albeit 12 hours later: EURO ens now in NC camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right now NC looks favorable for landfall, again that could change. Also Joaquin is intensifying rapidly now. Pressure is low and the winds should catch up. Satellite imagery looks very good for Joaquin right now. Perfect outflow developing over all quadrants as wind shear from the northwest is decreasing as the cyclone heads towards being underneath and upper level anticyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Right now NC looks favorable for landfall, again that could change. Also Joaquin is intensifying rapidly now. Pressure is low and the winds should catch up. Satellite imagery looks very good for Joaquin right now. Perfect outflow developing over all quadrants as wind shear from the northwest is decreasing as the cyclone heads towards being underneath and upper level anticyclone. Yes, I was alarmed by how optimal outflow has become in the nw quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sorry if I missed this earlier... Was there a rationale for simultaneous discussions in multiple subforums vs. a single one in main forum? Seems like a wide potential geographic impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ray that can be the coastal low too. You can't really tell on the mean if that is Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah you need to see indiv members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 One other small possibility is sort of what the TVCN type models do. Sort of have it parallel the coast a bit. That would both increase wind and rain up and down the coast...but I wouldn't say it's a high prob, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Thanks. EURO ens like the Delmarva. I suspect that adjusts a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sorry if I missed this earlier... Was there a rationale for simultaneous discussions in multiple subforums vs. a single one in main forum? Seems like a wide potential geographic impact. There is a discussion in the main forum. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46962-hurricane-joaquin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Capitol District to the Carolinas is a safe bet this far out if it LF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro ens have many members NJ and north as well as Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There is a discussion in the main forum. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46962-hurricane-joaquin/ Yeah been reading the main forum thread as well, but the subforum threads have been more active. Here we are in SNE discussing potential NC/VA tracks. I could see obs posts divided down, but 4-5 days away, seems like disco posts in each of these subforums have broad geographic following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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