USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ok OSU, you are right, there has been -80C for a couple of hours, which shows that it is sustaining deep convection at DMIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Its pretty dumbIt's a very low confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:33 AM, OSUmetstud said: I guess I'm kinda including nc and VA with the mid atlantic there.VA has had almost no LF from canes . It's likely either NC or Nj/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Why should I post less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:36 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Why should I post less? BC you have cyber rea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:35 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Its pretty dumblol grumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We can do without the play by play of Joaquin's structure...it's going to change a lot between now and tomorrow and the next day and the next day...it's a long ways from impacting the U.S. directly if it ever does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fair enough Will, I will back off on the play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:30 AM, OSUmetstud said: I'd go Mid atlantic, ots, then sne for probs.I'd go Mid Atlantic, SNE, then ots.I think it's unlikely this goes ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 i don't know, looks pretty good to me on IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Taking this seriously, the windshield wiper effect concerns me, more often than not it ends up in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:40 AM, Bostonseminole said: i don't know, looks pretty good to me on IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:40 AM, Bostonseminole said: i don't know, looks pretty good to me on IR Def. does. Just looked....outflow in nw quad rapidly expanding. Prob be a hurricane by dawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Def. does. Just looked....outflow in nw quad rapidly expanding. Prob be a hurricane by dawn Might be a hurricane by midnight. This thing is about to go boom. Moving due west rather than south or southwest too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:46 AM, sbos_wx said: Might be a hurricane by midnight. This thing is about to go boom. I was going to post that, but played it safely. Would not be shocked at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:42 AM, Ginx snewx said: Taking this seriously, the windshield wiper effect concerns me, more often than not it ends up in the middle I've had similar thoughts, but I've been hesitant to make a point of it since I really can't say whether or not this situation will follow that general tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes I know, it is going to go boom and the HH are going to find a significantly stronger hurricane than what the NHC will conservatively go with at 11pm and 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 500 PM fix puts the center just about right under the coldest cloud tops. A hurricane at the next advisory wouldn't surprise me, and considering the NHC wanted hurricane watches hoisted in the Bahamas they think so too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 John hope was all about the "9" signature for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:47 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes I know, it is going to go boom and the HH are going to find a significantly stronger hurricane than what the NHC will conservatively go with at 11pm and 5am. Conservative is usually the way to play it. Official forecast strength pretty solidly in the middle of the the different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:50 AM, OceanStWx said: Conservative is usually the way to play it. al112015_inten.png Official forecast strength pretty solidly in the middle of the the different solutions. The cape cod, MA model rips it to 120knts Anxious to see the next CCM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:49 AM, OSUmetstud said: John hope was all about the "9" signature for intensification.lol just had the same thought when I saw that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The cape cod, MA model rips it to 120knts Anxious to see the next CCM run. easy, James being James. You seem to have a predetermined outcome, dangerous with regards to the setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:56 AM, Ginx snewx said: easy, James being James. You seem to have a predetermined outcome, dangerous with regards to the setup I'm just betting against major NE impact. I was too dismissive regarding OTS.....I hadn't heard about the ensembles. I do think a tug west is more likely than a channel north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like I may lose the bet with Nick. Admittedly, I was too quick to talk out of my rear without having looked at anything. We'll see, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 1:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like I may lose the bet with Nick. Admittedly, I was too quick to talk out of my rear without having looked at anything. We'll see, though. If you take the time off now you may be back in time for landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 1:03 AM, dryslot said: If you take the time off now you may be back in time for landfalllol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 1:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like I may lose the bet with Nick. Admittedly, I was too quick to talk out of my rear without having looked at anything. We'll see, though. Who cares. Post anyway. I like when your wrong because it usually means we're getting a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 12:59 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just betting against major NE impact. I was too dismissive regarding OTS.....I hadn't heard about the ensembles. I do think a tug west is more likely than a channel north. That would be a safe bet I think. Probs do not favor a NE landfall etc. but sometimes... I would say it bears watching. I've already spoken with 2 people heading to Block Island and Martha's Vineyard to consider cancelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On 9/30/2015 at 1:03 AM, dryslot said: If you take the time off now you may be back in time for landfall I'd serve the week after LF.....be back in time to jump on the SAI train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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