Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 More solutions than normal at short range Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What does that title even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 SHIP guidance brings shear down to a minimal amount from hours 36-72, that is 48 hours of 5-10 knots of shear, perfect for rapid intensification. Also SSTs will be between 29.0-30.0C at the same time and 700mb humidity levels will be ideal. This system could become a category five hurricane if this model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What does that title even mean?no joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 SHIP guidance brings shear down to a minimal amount from hours 36-72, that is 48 hours of 5-10 knots of shear, perfect for rapid intensification. Also SSTs will be between 29.0-30.0C at the same time and 700mb humidity levels will be ideal. This system could become a category five hurricane if this model is correct. You need a TO. :WEENIE: :WEENIE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What does that title even mean? C'mon, Not that tough..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No walk in the park forecast for mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 18z gfdl into Li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What does that title even mean? It's a horrific play on "no walk in the park". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 While I'd prefer to see what the consensus is at 12z tomorrow, I think the current spread in guidance is neat and certainly merits interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a horrific play on "no walk in the park". I had no clue wtf it meant at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's a horrific play on "no walk in the park".I honestly didn't and don't get it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Latest ADT estimates are in with a raw T# of 3.6, almost a hurricane with 4.0. Also it has the center of Joaquin underneath the deepest convection and where a possible mid level eye feature on infrared satellite imagery shows a weaker spot of convection. Or warm spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I had no clue wtf it meant at first. Thanks god I do not have class again until Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Benchmark40/70, I think there is more than one sign pointing to this scenario than just me thinking it up, look at the environment developing in front of Joaquin. Look at what is happening now, can't you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfdl is crazy for our area that would crash the board a week ago I would have never guessed we would be tracking this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfdl is crazy for our area that would crash the board a week ago I would have never guessed we would be tracking thisPost the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Benchmark40/70, I think there is more than one sign pointing to this scenario than just me thinking it up, look at the environment developing in front of Joaquin. Look at what is happening now, can't you see it? I admittedly haven't looked a this much, but 'cmon, dude....cat 5 off the east coast in October?? Think about that....long and hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For the debbie downers the 18z GFS ens are way west (Thanks to Ryan for retweeting this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 For the debbie downers the 18z GFS ens are way west How about the EURO ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Post the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Lol@ gfdl slams Joaquin into south coast of RI/CT/MA. Goes to show many solutions are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I admittedly haven't looked a this much, but 'cmon, dude....cat 5 off the east coast in October?? Think about that....long and hard. CAPE COD, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 How about the EURO ens? Let me take a look. Not sure if serious or sarcastic as I haven't looked today outside of euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I admittedly haven't looked a this much, but 'cmon, dude....cat 5 off the east coast in October?? Think about that....long and hard. Dont worry, it will all become clear when you see his movie. Its the warm season version of sst in 90's and temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 In truth, there are more than enough Euro EPS members that show an East Coast landfall, that the op shouldn't be taken as gold. A quick run through would suggest more than half make landfall somewhere between CHS and EWB. Just threw this in the other thread, makes more sense here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Can someone post the 18z HWRF and GFDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Some of the deepest convection with Joaquin right now, -80C cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Let me take a look. Not sure if serious or sarcastic as I haven't looked today outside of euro op. Seriously... Dont worry, it will all become clear when you see his movie. Its the warm season version of sst in 90's and temps in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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