MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ggem follows the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z GGEM landfalls near Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The models are shifting further south into even SC, which would greatly mitigate the effects up here. Whether or not that track is correct is another story. We'll need a couple more days to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z HWRF initialized at 971mb which per recon data is extremely accurate. Drops into the low 950's by tonight and then the 940's by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And neither the 12z UKMET, GGEM or GEFS have run yet. We will see what happens after the model cycle is over. To say we have a consensus is just way too premature. 12z Ukmet and 12z Ggem have landfall in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Even with a landfall near Wilmington, NC you're going to have strong Easterly winds for several days persisting at the NJ and NY beaches. You're also going to have a lot of tropical moisture streaming North from the PRE and then again as the ULL moves North. I just don't see a feasible outcome, sans Euro where the impacts would be minimal here. Of course a solution like the 12z GFS would have less of an impact, but still quite significant.12z GFS would essentially be a longer lasting and rainier Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z Ukmet and 12z Ggem have landfall in NC. 12z Navgem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z Ukmet and 12z Ggem have landfall in NC. Yes, we will see if that holds. The 12z GGEM still drops 3-5" of rain as the system inevitably comes North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z HWRF down to 926mb Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 PRE on the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z HWRF down to 926mb Friday afternoon. Wow. No limit for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Wow. No limit for this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 PRE on the UKMET That's massive. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z HWRF landfalls near OBX in the mid 940's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z GGEM ensemble mean is centered right around an OBX or SE VA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wonder if that little loop the gfs did before sending the remnants towards our area will mean anything track wise. Yesterday the tracks swung it well west after landfall and now most hook it NE pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wonder if that little loop the gfs did before sending the remnants towards our area will mean anything track wise. Yesterday the tracks swung it well west after landfall and now most hook it NE pretty quickly. they do-I think we see some good rains in that scenario as the remnants work up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look how much of an outlier the 00z OP was to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This doesn't make sense to me. A hurricane with well defined outflow, in a favorable environment, deepening to around 925-930mb, gets captured by the ULL and pulled directly west. I just don't buy it. I don't see this storm becoming that strong, sitting there and then just getting pulled due west. When it's towards the Delarmva region, that latitude would make more sense, as the baroclycnicity would increase and the storm would be moving over 72-75 degree waters vs 82-84 degree sst's. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYI91Tavares Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This doesn't make sense to me. A hurricane with well defined outflow, in a favorable environment, deepening to around 925-930mb, gets captured by the ULL and pulled directly west. I just don't buy it. I don't see this storm becoming that strong, sitting there and then just getting pulled due west. When it's towards the Delarmva region, that latitude would make more sense, as the baroclycnicity would increase and the storm would be moving over 72-75 degree waters vs 82-84 degree sst's. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A I tend to agree, which is why I wouldn't be surprise to see models course correct a bit north towards Maryland/Delaware. If it does get captured as modeled currently, that would be very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z GFDL landfalls near Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When will the new data be ingested for models? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When will the new data be ingested for models? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Hopefully this evening. I'll see what data gets ingested into GFS (only one I have access to viewing internally) Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hopefully this evening. I'll see what data gets ingested into GFS (only one I have access to viewing internally) Sent from my SM-G925V Gratzi Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That's massive. Nice. Not really. It's only 1"-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What effects in terms of rain and wind would it have here if it made llandfall in southern Virginia?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is going to show some whacky Fujiwara scenario again with the remnants of Ida. Those remnants pass to the North and push the Euro OTS. Not going to cave. Not one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There is definitely some interaction with the 500mb low over the Southeast so I can see it coming back West some later in the period but it doesn't look anything like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not really. It's only 1"-3".The coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't take the QPF totals from the PRE seriously. We all saw how terrible the models were last night. Just get the coastal front in place and let the waterfall commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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