IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The trough over the Southeast US is digging a bit further South this run, thus the ridge to the North is a bit stronger. That is tugging everything a bit NW. On the positive end that has resulted in a stronger PRE making it further North. Moderate to to heavy rains for NYC and points South by Friday evening. In short, the pattern is a bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS is further NW with Juaqin at hour 66. Not sure what anyone is talking about. Don't see how it goes out to sea on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The overall run to run differences are negligible. The position at 12z Saturday is about 3-400 hundred miles NW of the 00z ECMWF run position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS is further NW with Juaqin at hour 66. Not sure what anyone is talking about. Early on it was more Southwest of the previous run and that is a slight cave to the Euro in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The capture occurs right at hr 69. Now it's just a matter of what state it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 935 mb at hour 60 just north of where it's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like landfall could be even further SW? Also it seems to reach land quicker than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 930 mb at hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks to be headed for OBX. Maybe even a bit South of that based on the position of the 500mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like landfall could be even further SW? Yeah, once it gets captured on day 3 it's just a matter of where the 500mb low becomes centered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Don't see how it goes out to sea on the run It doesn't , the trough digging in is too negatively tilted . It will tug it west. This strikes the EC , the question is where. Not out ... Terrible analysis earlier from some above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Early on it was more Southwest of the previous run and that is a slight cave to the Euro in the short term. Yeah I was overzealous about the possible OTS prediction. By 54 it seems to be moving back NW. In fairness though I said the move SSW at 24 could lead to a fishy solution. Either way, I'll make sure to sit in the back of the room for a bit. Let the old guard handle this. I've still got a lot to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Landfall near Wilmington Saturday night. That would result in a rather low impact event up here, although the shore would still experience a prolonged period of high Easterly winds. We would be affected by the outermost banding on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Landfall near Wilmington Saturday night. That would result in a rather low impact event up here, although the shore would still experience a prolonged period of high Easterly winds. We would be affected by the outermost banding on this run. A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Because of the positioning with the ULL and the rotation of the vorticy associated with Joaquin it may spin right through SC and then back offshore. Either way a substantial amount of moisture is being thrown up our way on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind. Consensus from what exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind. Way too early for that. Average model error is 300-400 miles at this juncture. IF the models had it into NYC harbor right now, odds are that would not be the correct spot of landfall....GFS locked in, but we're still 3-4 days out. Euro run today will be telling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind. The GFS landfall track has shifted several hundreds of miles over the last three cycles. The ECMWF is still OTS and some of the other guidance landfalls much further North, like into the DE Bay. I am sorry but this is just a terrible post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind. What on earth are you talking about? The UKMET brings this right up to the NY bight, as do many of the tropical models and ensembles members of the GFS and ECWMF. Hell, the ECWMF ensemble mean has this on track to plow into Long Island. The NHC's own discussions from 1 hour prior talks about the lack of model consensus. Think before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GFS landfall track has shifted several hundreds of miles over the last three cycles. The ECMWF is still OTS and some of the other guidance landfalls much further North, like into the DE Bay. I am sorry but this is just a terrible post. The UKMET, GGEM, GEFS ensembles and many of the hurricane models all have this striking the mid Atlantic from NC to VA as of this moment. That is pretty good agreement save the European model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A consensus is building that we will see minimal impacts from this storm in terms of rain and wind.Uhhhhh, what?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The UKMET, GGEM, GEFS ensembles and many of the hurricane models all have this striking the mid Atlantic from NC to VA as of this moment. That is pretty good agreement save the European model. And neither the 12z UKMET, GGEM or GEFS have run yet. We will see what happens after the model cycle is over. To say we have a consensus is just way too premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We get a lot of rain this run as the trough lifts North. Still spinning overhead on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What on earth are you talking about? The UKMET brings this right up to the NY bight, as do many of the tropical models and ensembles members of the GFS and ECWMF. Hell, the ECWMF ensemble mean has this on track to plow into Long Island. The NHC's own discussions from 1 hour prior talks about the lack of model consensus. Think before you post. Many of the tropical models? How many? The EC is OTS Plow into Long Island? Maybe I'm missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Stolen from the Mid-Atlantic forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It is possible though that if this capture happens far enough SW that the front and heavy rain are also pushed south and the impacts are over the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 the 12z run gives us more rain than 6z and that's with last night's rain totally out of the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like Ukie ends up near the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It is possible though that if this capture happens far enough SW that the front and heavy rain are also pushed south and the impacts are over the Mid Atlantic. Even with a landfall near Wilmington, NC you're going to have strong Easterly winds for several days persisting at the NJ and NY beaches. You're also going to have a lot of tropical moisture streaming North from the PRE and then again as the ULL moves North. I just don't see a feasible outcome, sans Euro where the impacts would be minimal here. Of course a solution like the 12z GFS would have less of an impact, but still quite significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We've got an eye on visible now. That should put to bed any talks about a short term weakening trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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