wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Easily cat 2 hour by hour 48,if not by hour 60 at latest, but even more hinting at cat 3 possible... Almost every member takes her up to at least cat 2. In all honestly it will probably be a cat 2 by tonight given the current structure, very warm SST and very low shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not only that but I'd even go and say on a line from Chesapeake bay to NYC region of landfall, more likely new Jersey area I don't have a tremendous amount of data to back up this claim but I have been watching the way the models which capture Joaquin early evolve the system and I just don't see it moving towards the Carolina coast on such a straight line. I feel the more likely scenario is that the system moves towards the coast on more of a curve than a direct angle which would result in landfall further North. This is obviously a very difficult forecast but gun to my head I would put the most likely landfall position near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very few 00z GGEM ensemble members shows an OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Very few 00z GGEM ensemble members shows an OTS solution. Yeah. I'm not even concerned about an OTS scenario. I'm more concerned about this hitting VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Multi model plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Steven's Institute is giving at least a small chance of reaching Major Flood criteria (+9.6ft.) at Sandy Hook, FRI near Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 09z SREF mean landfalls into the Central NC coast in 75 hours. Have to believe that scenario is highly unlikely. It does give us 2-4" from the PRE alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When is the Canadian ridge supposed to move to the Maritimes/Nova Scotia? If it moves just a bit further east prior to or during the storm, the setup would be similar to Sandy. Around Sunday it should be moving from Quebec into the Maritimes. From this far out that's still subject to some uncertainty. Landfall (maybe NC to the Delmarva is the likeliest area but that's highly speculative) is appears more likely than not, IMO, but the escape scenario is still a plausible one. Hopefully, in the next day or two, the picture will be clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 All of a sudden the Sandy turn to the left doesn't seem so unprecedented, freakish, once in a lifetime, 500 year stormish, does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On satellite, it still looks like Joaquin is fighting the shear. It's not symmetrical and the northern half of the storm looks pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On satellite, it still looks like Joaquin is fighting the shear. It's not symmetrical and the northern half of the storm looks pretty weak. Look out how well established the outflow is in all quadrants. And on top of that the current storm structure is not that of a sheared cyclone. Joaquin is currently experiencing under 10kts of shear and that is forecasted to continue to diminish over the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 On satellite, it still looks like Joaquin is fighting the shear. It's not symmetrical and the northern half of the storm looks pretty weak. It's lightyears ahead of yesterday. Actually has a closed eye wall today and getting outflow to the north. Its southward movement may also nullify some of that northerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would agree that the convection has weakened some on the NW side of the system as reflected in the warming cloud tops on IR loop. MW imagery loop also confirms this, however recon on the last pass reported a closed eyewall which was previously open. Joaquin is a rather large cyclone and sometimes that requires extra time to completely organize. One of the reasons why the max winds aren't proportionate to the surface pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46951-930-105-joaquin-trough-interaction-discussionobs/page-19#entry3701108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would agree that the convection has weakened some on the NW side of the system as reflected in the warming cloud tops on IR loop. MW imagery loop also confirms this, however recon on the last pass reported a closed eyewall which was previously open. Joaquin is a rather large cyclone and sometimes that requires extra time to completely organize. One of the reasons why the max winds aren't proportionate to the surface pressure. Perhaps a little dry air entrainment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A brief surf height of 68 feet is projected for Virginia Beach on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A brief surf height of 68 feet is projected for Virginia Beach on Sunday morning. I don't see that either. I just think the NW side of the storm has been on the weaker side throughout the entire forecast period and it is just taking a bit more time to organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z NAM holds off the rains until very late tomorrow night for most of the area. It also opens the Joaquin up into a wave within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 12z NAM thinks Juaqin is a weak 1000mb storm today. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Perhaps a little dry air entrainment? On satellite, it still looks like Joaquin is fighting the shear. It's not symmetrical and the northern half of the storm looks pretty weak. There is not dry air being drawn in as noted by HH obs and shear is becoming less of a factor as this starts to really deepen. Check out the hot tower forming in the SE quad. That will wrap around the eye soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 12z NAM holds off the rains until very late tomorrow night for most of the area. It also opens the Joaquin up into a wave within 48 hours. 12z NAM thinks Juaqin is a weak 1000mb storm today. OK. The NAM is not a tropical model and should pretty much never be used for track/intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM is not a tropical model and should pretty much never be used for track/intensity. I think it still might be useful with regards to the PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM is not a tropical model and should pretty much never be used for track/intensity.The model was originally meant to pick up banding and other mesoscale features within 36 hours of a storm affecting an area.. Correct? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 OTS doesn't seem that implausible if it continues to jog further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NHC expects this to become a major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Three clusters: 1. NC/VA landfall 2. NYC/New England landfall 3. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM is not a tropical model and should pretty much never be used for track/intensity. it should not really be used outside of 24 or 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 We will have the new GFS soon and the rest of the 12z suite. All you can hope for is that we each consecutive model cycle the spread lessens. New discussion outlines that they leaned away from the ECWMF guidance but took the track to the right of the consensus in order to acknowledge the possibility of it being more correct. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH36H 02/0000Z 24.4N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH48H 02/1200Z 25.3N 74.5W 95 KT 110 MPH72H 03/1200Z 28.5N 73.5W 100 KT 115 MPH96H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 05/1200Z 38.5N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So far the 12z GFS is significantly further South than the 06z run. Makes sense given the current storm motion, and not necessarily a positive development for those wishing for a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS 12z init Joaquin at 982 mb -- not a good job since tc vitals & ATCF had 971 mb. http://t.co/K74Fr6IUZy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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