Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs 06z captures The storm again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gfs 06z captures The storm again this run Slams into OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 6z GFS looks a lot like Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think the big take home is major coastal impacts no matter what the final solution is. Erosion wash overs and possible structural damage. Do not forget that during Isabelle we had 60mph guts up here. We lost a 400 year old white oak on my college campus in Maryland during that storm as they had 70mph gusts well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My sense is that this is going to landfall further north than expected. The "capture" or sharp NE turn of Sandy is unusual and had to do with its extratropical transition. Remember Sandy happened at the end of the season, around Halloween. Many of the powerful hurricanes that affect the Northeast U.S. this time of year (1635, 1815, 1869, 1938, 1944, Edna etc.) typically affect the Bahamas and then head due north, making a landfall on Long Island or Cape Cod. Many of the GFS ensembles support this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My sense is that this is going to landfall further north than expected. The "capture" or sharp NE turn of Sandy is unusual and had to do with its extratropical transition. Remember Sandy happened at the end of the season, around Halloween. Many of the powerful hurricanes that affect the Northeast U.S. this time of year (1635, 1815, 1869, 1938, 1944, Edna etc.) typically affect the Bahamas and then head due north, making a landfall on Long Island or Cape Cod. Many of the GFS ensembles support this solution.Makes total sense. I forgot about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 One thing about Joaquin is that while the models seem to be fairly clustered on a landfall South of us, almost all of the guidance then drifts the center North or Northeast towards our area as the trough slides North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 One thing about Joaquin is that while the models seem to be fairly clustered on a landfall South of us, almost all of the guidance then drifts the center North or Northeast towards our area as the trough slides North. And none have landfall directly in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 And none have landfall directly in our area. No, Sandy didn't make landfall in our area either. Neither did Floyd or Irene. That doesn't mean they weren't high impact events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would be very cautious on pinpointing landfall 4-5 days from now. OTS is still a possibility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The official NHC forecast looks to be on a angle for landfall somewhere on the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 System now has a nice continuous band of 80km/h winds out 1 deg. from center in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 No, Sandy didn't make landfall in our area either. Neither did Floyd or Irene. That doesn't mean they weren't high impact events.Floyd and Irene made landfalls in our area. They made landfalls on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Feeling is, extreme west seems bit drastic while out to sea seems drastic the other way. Somewhere in between would be a good bet hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would be very cautious on pinpointing landfall 4-5 days from now. OTS is still a possibility too. I agree that its still a possibility but I wouldn't say that the chances of that occurring are very good. Not with the agreement between the GFS/UKMET/GGEM/NAVGEM. One interesting thing about the 06z GEFS members. You can see how tightly clustered they are here at hr 66 Then by hour 84 you lose about a third that head towards the Carolina coast Then at hour 114 you lose about half the remaining to a mid-atlantic landfall. Then at 132 you lose about half of the remaining again for a NJ or NY landfall Finally about five end up OTS, a very low percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Floyd and Irene made landfalls in our area. They made landfalls on Long Island. The first landfall was over North Carolina in both those cases. I wasn't talking about secondary landfalls. And I believe Irene's second landfall was in SNJ, not Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 The first landfall was over North Carolina in both those cases. I wasn't talking about secondary landfalls. And I believe Irene's second landfall was in SNJ, not Long Island. Secondary landfall was at Little Egg Harbor/Brigantine, NJ then Coney Island, NY. (Irene) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's been a long quiet summer,dry too... We need a little action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Irene's third landfall was Brooklyn actually. Point is those storms made a direct path through our area. Just clarifying, not derailing the thread. So if the system landfalls in MD or VA and then slides Northeast over our region wouldn't that constitute as us being in the direct path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NWS via KWO-35 has been giving Joaquin little air time. Today, the words possible TS conditions for the waters around here is being mentioned for the first time. Also they have quietly added 48hrs to the period of precipitation possiblities, now not clearing up till Tues PM. In addition---lost in the sauce---is the fact we have set a new all time warmest September record, eclipsing the existing 1961 record by about a whopping whole degree, to about 74.6. That is a lot to break a monthly record by after 150 years of record keeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Leave the moral bs home. Im not as nice as rjay, stop clogging model threads with this crap or youll be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Per latest pass on recon max winds are up to 80MPH and the eyewall which was open to the North on the first pass is now closed. Min pressure is about the same. The winds might finally be catching up with the low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 NWS via KWO-35 has been giving Joaquin little air time. Today, the words possible TS conditions for the waters around here is being mentioned for the first time. Also they have quietly added 48hrs to the period of precipitation possiblities, now not clearing up till Tues PM. In addition---lost in the sauce---is the fact we have set a new all time warmest September record, eclipsing the existing 1961 record by about a whopping whole degree, to about 74.6. That is a lot to break a monthly record by after 150 years of record keeping. Incredible month. Dry and hot almost end to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A little more northerly spread this run with more mid-atlantic hits. Only two non-event members like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Almost every member takes her up to at least cat 2. In all honestly it will probably be a cat 2 by tonight given the current structure, very warm SST and very low shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I would be very cautious on pinpointing landfall 4-5 days from now. OTS is still a possibility too. I agree with the caution. This is a much tougher call than Sandy where one could point to what was an overpowering late October block. In this case, the finer details in the synoptic pattern will determine whether or not Joaquin is captured. That the guidance has trended slower with Joaquin's approach toward North America consistent with the storm's forward motion may be showing an increasing probability of its being captured. A slower approach would also lead to a diminishing opportunity for escape prior to a strong ridge's moving across and off eastern Canada. The NHC's track is a compromise between the major model camps, but at the last part of the track, there is some westerly component to that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 When is the Canadian ridge supposed to move to the Maritimes/Nova Scotia? If it moves just a bit further east prior to or during the storm, the setup would be similar to Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 A stronger hurricane would mean less of a NE turn, right? Joaquin seems like it's intensifying more quickly than expected (it's already a hurricane at 971mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You read my mind I was going post about noticing that the ensemble has shifted slightly north. A little more northerly spread this run with more mid-atlantic hits. Only two non-event members like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 You read my mind I was going post about noticing that the ensemble has shifted slightly north. I don't have a tremendous amount of data to back up this claim but I have been watching the way the models which capture Joaquin early evolve the system and I just don't see it moving towards the Carolina coast on such a straight line. I feel the more likely scenario is that the system moves towards the coast on more of a curve than a direct angle which would result in landfall further North. This is obviously a very difficult forecast but gun to my head I would put the most likely landfall position near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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