IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely south of 18z GFS. Exact track really isn't important at this point. You could see it get captured by the trough on Friday and it had absolutely zero chance of doing anything but moving NW into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The stronger it is, the more of a concern that is.... I just don't see a strengthening storm being captured like that. I believe the left hook will be further north, similar to a Sandy, just stronger.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Initialized at 999 mb. Is this wrong?Yeah looks to have initialized 10 mb too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Isabel was a purely tropical system with a completely different setup. This will be a hybrid storm. Remember with sandy with a landfall in NJ there were hurricane force winds up to maine. Here the issue is the pressure gradient between the high and the storm and the jet. It's a different beast. A landfall in the delmarva would still cause us problems. I think it's too early to say still what happens with Joaquin. It could fully phase with the deepening trough, interact with it as it draws moisture inland, or escape out to sea like the Euro OP has. Isabel wasn't completely different-it also had a strong ridge and high NE of it which tracked it into NC. I doubt it would have as huge a wind field as Sandy (1,000 miles across), unless it grows massively in size over the next few days. Sandy, even before merging with the trough was massive. Isabel was also fairly large in size when it struck, but Sandy was still larger. Sandy was I believe the largest tropical cyclone in history in the Atlantic basin. Models so far show a tighter wind core than what Sandy had. The comparisons to Sandy are still way, way premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I just don't see a strengthening storm being captured like that. I believe the left hook will be further north, similar to a Sandy, just stronger. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Sandy was in the low 940s when it was captured and then phased. If the ridge east of Joaquin prevents any escape and the trough is in the right position, it could definitely be captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The stronger it is, the more of a concern that is....The poleward flow on this is amazing. Furthermore, shear and atmospheric conditions are going to become much more conducive for this storm to strengthen. Sst's are exceedingly warm. I could honestly see this reaching a cat 4.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think it's too early to say still what happens with Joaquin. It could fully phase with the deepening trough, interact with it as it draws moisture inland, or escape out to sea like the Euro OP has. Isabel wasn't completely different-it also had a strong ridge and high NE of it which tracked it into NC. I doubt it would have as huge a wind field as Sandy (1,000 miles across), unless it grows massively in size over the next few days. Sandy, even before merging with the trough was massive. Isabel was also fairly large in size when it struck, but Sandy was still larger. Sandy was I believe the largest tropical cyclone in history in the Atlantic basin. Models so far show a tighter wind core than what Sandy had. The comparisons to Sandy are still way, way premature. I think it's pretty clear what is happening here. The end result will have been known for days when all is said and done. IMO it's just a matter of whether the destruction is in NC/VA or further North. As good as the Euro was with Sandy, it sent her into the Mid-Atlantic coast less than 48 hours beforehand and the GFS on the same model cycle sent her into Cape Cod. The tracks are still all over the place but the general steering current is well established. The only chance this has of escaping East is if that ULL to the East can tug it away, but as the system moves further and further SW that is becoming increasingly less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Initialized at 999 mb. Is this wrong? Global models almost always analyze a tropical cyclone with too high a pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hearing the Ukie is into the Delaware Bay per the DC forum. That would not be good. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GGEM gets fully captured right at hour 72. Even though the storm at that hour is about 500 miles SE of Charleston you can clearly see it only has one choice. Hook right into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GGEM is headed right into the coast, best guess is near the DE Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GGEM is headed right into the coast, best guess is near the DE Bay. Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The GGEM is headed right into the coast, best guess is near the DE Bay.What's the time frame for this possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Jesus... Bit further north from what the globals have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I remember when Hugo hit in '89 (I was in Charlotte), even though the landfall was near Charleston, conditions were severe well up into NC along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GGEM looks exactly like the GFS but stronger. Ocean City Maryland landfall. Plenty of time for it to go more north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hearing the Ukie is into the Delaware Bay per the DC forum. That would not be good. At all. If this ramps up over the next 24-48 hours and models keep this kind of forced NW hook into the coast and it starts to key in on north of Ocean City, there will probably be huge problems for the NJ/LI/SNE coasts. The look now on satellite and expected lessening shear and high SSTs on its path for a while, means this could really ramp up given some time. Models aren't expanding the wind field on Joaquin so much yet, so hopefully it would at least be a tighter core that sees the worst impacts vs. a much wider area like Sandy. Joaquin will likely expand in area as it moves north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This had no choice, captured by Friday morning. The rest was just going through the motions. Everyone likes to mock the GGEM but it did score a big one with the rains tonight. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Ukie has a 983 low slamming into Ocean City, Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If this ramps up over the next 24-48 hours and models keep this kind of forced NW hook into the coast and it starts to key in on north of Ocean City, there will probably be huge problems for the NJ/LI/SNE coasts. The look now on satellite and expected lessening shear and high SSTs on its path for a while, means this could really ramp up given some time. Models aren't expanding the wind field on Joaquin so much yet, so hopefully it would at least be a tighter core that sees the worst impacts vs. a much wider area like Sandy. Joaquin will likely expand in area as it moves north though.My sentiments exactly. Like I said before, I definitely see this being at least cat 3 and I could see cat 4 for a brief while. Jbenedet and I were talking, and he pointed out something I found very insightful. Sandy was a month later and therefore the baroclycnic gradient was a bit stronger, which allowed a quicker extratropical transition. However that being said, I truly expect this to be a mid NJ or so hit, which is going to spell major problems for NJ, NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look at this PRE, just epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Just for reference, this was Sandy's track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 My sentiments exactly. Like I said before, I definitely see this being at least cat 3 and I could see cat 4 for a brief while. Jbenendent and I were talking, and he pointed out something I found very insightful. Sandy was a month later and therefore the baroclycnic gradient was a bit stronger, which allowed a quicker extratropical transition. However that being said, I truly expect this to be a mid NJ or so hit, which is going to spell major problems for NJ, NYC and LI. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A What makes you think a mid NJ landfall is likely? Not that I think you're wrong, just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sandy was modeled to hit the mid atlantic a couple days before the event. Just a weaker block or if the block if further north than modeled will allow landfall further north than what the models are showing right now. Of course that the models right now aren't the end results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What makes you think a mid NJ landfall is likely? Not that I think you're wrong, just wondering. I would think the (possible) hook would happen bc of Joaquin getting captured. When it gets captured, it would then slowly start to transition to a hybrid as it hooked on into the coast. What I'm saying is, Joaquin will never get "captured" as a robust tropical system, within a tropical environment. It will move through the height field "path" (weakness) as an independent entity, until it begins to lose some of its tropical characteristics... Jbenedet posted this earlier. I agree. This will move around the ULL until it hits lower sst's (around DE and SNJ). This will then allow it to hook and this would be around mid NJ. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Anyone doing the Euro PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 ECMWF 00z already 14-mb deeper thru 24-hrs than 12z run. 970 mb typically close to Category 2. http://t.co/EYEbEoNlFp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 48-hr position is right on top of previous 12z run. So far, no model track change except more intense. 955-mb http://t.co/eQEt77cITc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The Euro is almost identical in track but much deeper in strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 the KING has spoken, this is a major cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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