IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lots of interesting 12z GEFS members for SNE and E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 In the meantime, Joaquin seems to be accelerating a bit towards the NW now. My guess is that the 2PM advisory will show a slightly wakened system. Man if I were in Miami looking at that buzz saw, I'd feel more than a little nervous, despite the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man if I were in Miami looking at that buzz saw, I'd feel more than a little nervous, despite the forecast. Agree, very close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Man if I were in Miami looking at that buzz saw, I'd feel more than a little nervous, despite the forecast. Another hurricane miss for Florida keeping the record streak since the last hurricane landfall in October 2005 in tact. We should probably start a contest how much longer the streak is going to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, although not directly related, plenty of rain should continue to move NNE throughout the day, good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Check out the winds now South of Cuba and the cloud pattern on the SW quadrant, starting to get picked up and carried Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Check out the winds now South of Cuba and the cloud pattern on the SW quadrant, starting to get picked up and carried Northeast. What is actually "picking it up" and pushing NE? Jet stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lots of interesting 12z GEFS members for SNE and E LI.stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, although not directly related, plenty of rain should continue to move NNE throughout the day, good soaking. radar is improving up this way-northern edge has been eaten up all morning, but a good slug is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What is actually "picking it up" and pushing NE? Jet stream? Since Joaquin is so far South the trough is helping steer it OTS rather than NW. Think of it like a baseball hitting the very end of a bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookie Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Which is more indicative of the orientation of the trough as it relates to the steering pattern - the southwest side of the storm or the northwest side (whose canopy seems to be being pulled into the slightly negative tilt already)? Check out the winds now South of Cuba and the cloud pattern on the SW quadrant, starting to get picked up and carried Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z ECMWF is Southeast of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Which is more indicative of the orientation of the trough as it relates to the steering pattern - the southwest side of the storm or the northwest side (whose canopy seems to be being pulled into the slightly negative tilt already)? The trough does have a slightly negative tilt, but we needed this to be further NW so that it could be grabbed by the southeasterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 2PM advisory, no changes to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know why I even put myself through this agony. On Monday morning the 12z EPS mean is about 150 miles West of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know why I even put myself through this agony. On Monday morning the 12z EPS mean is about 150 miles West of the OP. You are a real true weenie just like me . Everyone has given up. I have but I am still going to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 You are a real true weenie just like me . Everyone has given up. I have but I am still going to watch it. So you haven't given up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So you haven't given up lol I haven't either...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On the record, I through in the towel yesterday after the GFS kicked East. The 00z runs pulled me back in but that was quickly shattered by the 06z GFS going East again. Off the record, I still have some hope in the fact that in the end, no computer is superior enough to get every single detail 100% correct, and when you have such a fragile situation, it wouldn't take a whole lot to get a meaningful change. I was also here for the Boxing Day Blizzard, and anyone that experienced that model turn around knows how you can sometimes get a hail mary touchdown from the 20 yard line. Maybe if we can get Joaquin far enough West it will help to drag the ULL further Northeast. Right now we have a disconnect and it sort of just sits there at rots away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I haven't either...lol That's because we have a passion for the weather. I've been like this since i was 5 years old. You don't change who you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know why I even put myself through this agony. On Monday morning the 12z EPS mean is about 150 miles West of the OP. so the fishes further west will get it instead of the fishes further east..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 so the fishes further west will get it instead of the fishes further east..LOL Theoretically we still have three days to go before that happens. I know it sounds ridiculous but that's an eternity in the weather world. In the end, the Euro will have most likely been hundreds of miles too far East and the GFS will end up being hundreds of miles too far West. I still think it tracks within 150 miles of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 In the meantime, look how bad it looks. Getting torn apart from NW to SE and fighting some dry air to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 so the fishes further west will get it instead of the fishes further east..LOL Imagine how crappy life must still be if you are the captain of a freighter trying to get across the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Imagine how crappy life must still be if you are the captain of a freighter trying to get across the North Atlantic. definitely would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 There's a whole cargo ship lost right down in the hurricane!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 There's a whole cargo ship lost right down in the hurricane!!! That things probably getting tossed around like nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 We should see a slight uptick in rain coverage over the next several hours with a gradual tapering after 12z tomorrow morning although most of the modeling has a lot of shower activity right through Sunday. I wouldn't expect to see more than a few breaks of sun until Monday.That Easterly fetch will be relentless for the next 72 hours, peaking on Sunday as Joaquin makes his closest pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Incredibly jealous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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