Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At this point I would just be happy with a few more inches of rain. It was always a very outside chance of being a major player here even with a landfall. The most disappointing thing from my perspective is the tropical moisture combining with the ULL as it slid to our South would have produced some absurd amounts of rain. Agree. Instead we're stuck with very light rain and temps in the 40's...bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 11AM advisory discussion really rains on everyone's parade. They are tossing everything in favor of the 00z ECMWF, 06z GFS correlation.As they should, NAM (12k) and a couple other models (GGEM and Le ARPEGE) are going to bust horribly. It's already clear that Euro beat all the other models to a tee. Doesn't matter if it's 100 miles west of what Euro has been showing. Every progression has been toward Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 11AM advisory discussion really rains on everyone's parade. They are tossing everything in favor of the 00z ECMWF, 06z GFS correlation. I mean, I don't blame them. But this is the first i've seen of that water vapor loop and that western wind force over the Atlantic looks too pronounced to ignore. I don't see how that doesn't help the system get captured. Or at least create some sort of blockage to the NE before its captured... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't understand how this wouldn't affect the track. Wouldn't the storm sort of "go with the flow" so to speak? How could it ignore those westerly winds? I'm no expert in fluid dynamics. I'm just fascinated by the complexity of the whole evolution and am content to just watch and see what happens. I suspect that none of the models will have it totally pegged, though I wouldn't anticipate any meaningful downstream effects unless that ULL really digs for oil and Joaquin comes north faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 As they should, NAM (12k) and a couple other models (GGEM and Le ARPEGE) are going to bust horribly. It's already clear that Euro beat all the other models to a tee. Doesn't matter if it's 100 miles west of what Euro has been showing. Every progression has been toward Euro.The Euro definitely has its moments, and this is one of them. Just about every other hurricane model, global, ensemble etc had a US landfall 2 days ago and the Euro was on its own, look what we have now. Even with Sandy I don't think the disparity was so bad. Says a lot about how much work the other models have to do to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Euro definitely has its moments, and this is one of them. Just about every other hurricane model, global, ensemble etc had a US landfall 2 days ago and the Euro was on its own, look what we have now. Even with Sandy I don't think the disparity was so bad. Says a lot about how much work the other models have to do to catch up. Superior initialization scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Euro definitely has its moments, and this is one of them. Just about every other hurricane model, global, ensemble etc had a US landfall 2 days ago and the Euro was on its own, look what we have now. Even with Sandy I don't think the disparity was so bad. Says a lot about how much work the other models have to do to catch up. Agreed, however I think it should be noted that the Euro's adjustment last night was quite large. It's just hard for us to care because OTS is OTS, any jog or difference doesn't really matter. But there was a change at 00z. If we were in a LF scenario it would have been noticed more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm somewhat of a neophyte, as I don't have any meteorological degrees or formal background -- but I am a computer programmer and have a great deal of experience in modeling with many complex variables. Taking in most of what I have read and seen over the past few days, it seems the "meandering" to the south is what was largely influencing many of the tracks. The time it spent hanging by the Bahamas allows significant time for capture scenario to miss, kicking the storm eastward. I don't think one model properly depicted the amount of time the storm actually meandered before the northward motion which appears to have commenced around 5AM.....I think the next model suite will be very telling (assuming the new northward component is ingested for processing). I would not be surprised at all to see any or all of the models flip to some sort of EC hit. This has always been a thread the needle type scenario from what I have gleaned -- it just seems we weren't sure on the length of thread. Its slow motion left it south and east of where some of the landfalling guidance had it. That position made it more difficult for a capture to occur. It also allowed for sufficient time during which a weakness in ridging to the north would become available. That increased the likelihood that Joaquin would eventually find that weakness and avoid landfall. The probability of capture and probability of the ridging to the north redirecting it toward land was reduced. This was a highly complex setup and it appears that the ECMWF had the best handle early on, even as it wasn't perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Posted this in another forum: Ive been around for a while and I realize the NAM misses big events more than it nails them, but why is everyone 100% sure the NAM is completely wrong? Flame/troll me all you want and im not saying its right but every so often I have seen the NAM score a huge win over the years. Its akin to betting a big football game...sometimes it seems too obvious and all the money goes to one side yet the house ends up winning. It happens. And nobody...,no one has mentioned the NAMs consistency. Its barely waivered. Back to hugging the Euro ☺ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 And nobody...,no one has mentioned the NAMs consistency. Its barely waivered. Lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To add to my last post/thoughts, Ive seen models such as the NAM never catch up to the proper solution. So it works both ways I guess. The gfs/euro will likely win out and i can see the nam never really catching up with them but you really never know. Like we say....its nowcast time! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol what?Just what I said. I dont think over the past few days it has shown anything but an EC landfall. There have been shifts but its held on to this idea rather persistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Its slow motion left it south and east of where some of the landfalling guidance had it. That position made it more difficult for a capture to occur. It also allowed for sufficient time during which a weakness in ridging to the north would become available. That increased the likelihood that Joaquin would eventually find that weakness and avoid landfall. The probability of capture and probability of the ridging to the north redirecting it toward land was reduced. This was a highly complex setup and it appears that the ECMWF had the best handle early on, even as it wasn't perfect. Interesting how everyone is posting as if the storm has already passed out to sea. It's only just begun it's turn. Let's see how it plays out before saying any model was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It would be the most epic win in the history of the NAM if EC landfall occurs. Will it happen? 99% it wont but.... If there was a money line on the NAM verifying it would be like +1800. I would lay a hundred on that for kicks and giggle ☺ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I think sometimes people forget that Sandy was moving well OTS before it got caught up. Sure, it's extremely rare, but it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If the turn NNE starts sooner then later, I don't know how this system gets going out to sea as far as modeled considering this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Edit: Look at the way part of the NE sector gets eaten alive by those western winds as soon as it comes into contact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z GFS, even with a track hundreds of miles East of the area still has 10m winds of 30-50kts for the beaches on Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Bermuda is going to need watches soon it appears. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It would be the most epic win in the history of the NAM if EC landfall occurs. Will it happen? 99% it wont but.... If there was a money line on the NAM verifying it would be like +1800. I would lay a hundred on that for kicks and giggle ☺ The 12z GFS is way out to sea. NAM is the worst model in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z GFS is way out to sea. NAM is the worst model in the world. I concur!Even the lowly CRAS is out to sea. ☺ Like i said, i can easily see the NAM never catching on even at zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't know if the RGEM means anything because it's still so far out of range but it beings turning back towards the coast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z GFS was so close to something more meaningful, if only it wasn't allowed to escape so far NE early on. A well defined system would theoretically enhance the ridging to its North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z GFS was so close to something more meaningful, if only it wasn't allowed to escape so far NE early on. A well defined system would theoretically enhance the ridging to its North. I don't know if the RGEM means anything because it's still so far out of range but it beings turning back towards the coast here. Doubt it. Looks like a near miss if extrapolated. Phase is sloppy and unlikely to pull it back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z GFS was so close to something more meaningful, if only it wasn't allowed to escape so far NE early on. A well defined system would theoretically enhance the ridging to its North. It just needed to be another 100-150 miles north at hour 0 and it would have had a chance. But we are running out of time for that to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 We surrender...oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 SREF mean at 09z brings it dangerously close to E-NC and close to the Delmarva. Looking at enhanced satellite imagery, the center has passed 75W and still moving wnw to NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Canadian finally conceded, shows a solution which brings Joaquin just off the coast and then just East of the benchmark. Looks like the main threat is over. Some people will say its been over for days, maybe you guys haven't been around here long enough to see how rapidly things can change in one model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z UKMET is OTS but it did shift further West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 In the meantime, Joaquin seems to be accelerating a bit towards the NW now. My guess is that the 2PM advisory will show a slightly wakened system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Canadian finally conceded, shows a solution which brings Joaquin just off the coast and then just East of the benchmark. Looks like the main threat is over. Some people will say its been over for days, maybe you guys haven't been around here long enough to see how rapidly things can change in one model cycle. when the lowest scoring guidance concedes, it's definitely over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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