IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 What's the PR4DEV? It's the parallel run of the GFS using the newer 4D-EnVar data assimilation. If I'm not mistaken the plan is to upgrade the GFS sometime next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's the parallel run of the GFS using the newer 4D-EnVar data assimilation. If I'm not mistaken the plan is to upgrade the GFS sometime next year. Do you have a real time link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's the parallel run of the GFS using the newer 4D-EnVar data assimilation. If I'm not mistaken the plan is to upgrade the GFS sometime next year. Thanks! Looks like the verification stats suggest it will be a bit better than it is now, but still no Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 A majority of the 00z EPS members were still well West of the 00z ECMWF OP and closer to the NHC official forecast cone. Honestly a lot of these members get the center close enough to at least some bring impacts to coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Outflow is starting to become restricted to the Northeast of the center thanks to some Easterly shear and a ton of dry air moving towards the cyclone. It still has a window to strengthen thanks to the the continued warm SST and the southerly shear vector that is currently helping to ventilate the system, but it probably has come close to peaking given that the steady strengthening we saw yesterday seems to have leveled off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 An alternative solution, wouldn't all that easterly wind seen here help to guide the cyclone further and further West until it was finally caught up in the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Do you have a real time link? I've not seen anything official like a TIN. You can find some very technical information in this publication which also states the possible deployment early next year. By the way, anyone recognize the author? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I saw a link,yesterday of all past,and present upgrades to models including some that were to start October 1st,though I'm drawing blank where I saw it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Once the Euro locks in on a solution, it doesn't matter what any of the other models are showing. That's how good the model is. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml It's only wrong when I had me getting 2-3 feet 72 hrs out and or any amount of snow last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's only wrong when I had me getting 2-3 feet 72 hrs out and or any amount of snow last winter That was a 75 mile error. The other models had a 2000 mile error when compared with the Euro's solution on the hurricane. Apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That was a 75 mile error. The other models had a 2000 mile error when compared with the Euro's solution on the hurricane. Apples and oranges. The final solution, even if offshore will end up being hundreds of miles further NW than the Euro solution from yesterday. You just don't realize it as much because OTS is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 An alternative solution, wouldn't all that easterly wind seen here help to guide the cyclone further and further West until it was finally caught up in the trough? It is cut off from the flow. These find a way out between the troughs. This is going east. It's been done for over a day as far as a US astrike goes. The beaches will get lashed with NE and we will get some much needed rain , but you are attempting to put a round peg in a square hole here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The final solution, even if offshore will end up being hundreds of miles further NW than the Euro solution from yesterday. You just don't realize it as much because OTS is OTS. Fair point. But its early solution of a non US landfall will be what's remembered about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Fair point. But its solution of a non US landfall will be what's remembered about this one. So what? The Ocean is massive compared to land. The Euro solution could be off by 1000 miles. It just happens to be a coincidence that there isn't any land to contend with in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's only wrong when I had me getting 2-3 feet 72 hrs out and or any amount of snow last winter Haha...at least a 50-75 mile miss with the 20 inch line is better than the other models forecasting a NW hook into the MA instead of well SE of the benchmark consensus now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nobody would be throwing in the towel if the Euro was a hit and every other model was OTS, just saying. The Euro may end up being the "most correct" and I use that term incredibly loosely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z NAM still wants a NC landfall. I think Joaquin could be near Bermuda and it would still get captured and tugged almost due West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Haha...at least a 50-75 mile miss with the 20 inch line is better than the other models forecasting a NW hook into the MA instead of SE of the benchmark consensus now. Exactly. The other models were nowhere even close including the hurricane models. A great coup for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z NAM still wants a NC landfall. I think Joaquin could be near Bermuda and it would still get captured and tugged almost due West. The NAM? If that's all you got on your side, it's going to be a tough row. It's a meso model meant for 24 hour pickups of banding etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The NAM? If that's all you got on your side, it's going to be a tough row. It's a meso model meant for 24 hour pickups of banding etc... It's the first of the 12z suite to come out, what more do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Exactly. The other models were nowhere even close including the hurricane models. A great coup for the Euro. The Euro wasn't particularly close either, it was just not close in a more-forgettable way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's the first of the 12z suite to come out, what more do you want? Talk to me when the real models come in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's the first of the 12z suite to come out, what more do you want? 12z nam actually has it strike NC but keeps the center over open waters as it does its loop. Interesting to see what would come of it if that were to happen. (through 72hrs anyway) Speaking in terms of rainfall for SC, that would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The turn has commenced http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That is a beautiful and unusual sight right there. Almost looks like the storm is being pincered between two pressing fingers. Wouldn't be surprised if, when it does start to move, it moves pretty quickly northward. Edit: how is the ULL's position relative to modeling? Appears to be taking a generally south movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 That is a beautiful and unusual sight right there. Almost looks like the storm is being pincered between two pressing fingers. Wouldn't be surprised if, when it does start to move, it moves pretty quickly northward. I don't understand how this wouldn't affect the track. Wouldn't the storm sort of "go with the flow" so to speak? How could it ignore those westerly winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 At this point I would just be happy with a few more inches of rain. It was always a very outside chance of being a major player here even with a landfall. The most disappointing thing from my perspective is the tropical moisture combining with the ULL as it slid to our South would have produced some absurd amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't understand how this wouldn't affect the track. Wouldn't the storm sort of "go with the flow" so to speak? How could it ignore those westerly winds? The 11AM advisory discussion really rains on everyone's parade. They are tossing everything in favor of the 00z ECMWF, 06z GFS correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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