Mophstymeo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Big shifts from 12z and 0z Euro. Really close to a capture on this run. Still OTS but a lot more west than 12z. Track wobbling or the beginnings of real westward movement? The Euro didn't give up on its blizzard solution until just before the event. Different circumstances, I know, but it's been at the back of my mind since yesterday. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Big shifts from 12z and 0z Euro. Really close to a capture on this run. Still OTS but a lot more west than 12z. roughly 200 miles is a big shift? At least that what it looks like to me. I think this is more of a correction/adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It appears just about everything shifted west on tonights runs and I do not think we are seeing the final solution yet..Lets watch and see how far west the hurricane continues to travel ..and if there continues to be more interaction between the ULL and the hurricane cause thats what we were seeing tonight. On the GFS/ECM the capture was just to late...and on the GGEM and NAM it was much quicker ..why land fall was further south.. My gut says the answer lies in the middle .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Euro coming a bit west certainly gives me pause, also the Euro is not known for making big adjustments in one run but does them gradually. Have to see if this westward shift has any merit, but with some of the other models coming west tonight it is a bit of a red flag IMO. I am interested in seeing what the Euro ensembles will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To summarize some of the overnight guidance: 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun 6z NAM landfall in NC 15z Sun 0z NAVGEM landfall in NC 18z Mon (only reason I add this is 18z was OTS) 0z HWRF, GFDL OTS 0z Euro shifted ~ 200 miles northwest similar to 0z GFS and into NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Euro and GFS now converging on a solution which lies right in the nhc cone. 6z appears the farthest east the gfs has been with Joaquin's track yet. NAM is really bad and has handled Joaquin erratically its entire existence. CMC went North again and is slowly correcting. This threat appears pretty much dead, Maybe Im wrong? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To summarize some of the overnight guidance: 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun 6z NAM landfall in NC 15z Sun 0z NAVGEM landfall in NC 18z Mon (only reason I add this is 18z was OTS) 0z HWRF, GFDL OTS 0z Euro shifted ~ 200 miles northwest similar to 0z GFS and into NHC cone 6z gfs almost matches the Euro track. If there was support from any reliable model I would be inclined to think this is still an EC threat but when the hurricane models match an ots scenario and fall in line with the GFS and mighty Euro, I think its time to pack it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 To summarize some of the overnight guidance: 18z / 0z GEFS with ~50% SC-VA landfalls 0z CMC landfall in NC/VA 18z Sun 0z NAM landfall in SC 9z Sun 6z NAM landfall in NC 15z Sun 0z NAVGEM landfall in NC 18z Mon (only reason I add this is 18z was OTS) 0z HWRF, GFDL OTS 0z Euro shifted ~ 200 miles northwest similar to 0z GFS and into NHC cone Thanks for the summarization (I didnt stay up all night), it certainly seems like something new is happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6z Rgem and 6z Navgem are both out to sea. 6z GFS is east of its 0z run and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Once the Euro locks in on a solution, it doesn't matter what any of the other models are showing. That's how good the model is. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Once the Euro locks in on a solution, it doesn't matter what any of the other models are showing. That's how good the model is. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml so since it moved west, i guess we ignore anything that went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Once the Euro locks in on a solution, it doesn't matter what any of the other models are showing. That's how good the model is. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/graphics/al11/loop_5W.shtml Just like the past winter, amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 so since it moved west, i guess we ignore anything that went east. The Euro itself came a little west, but it's still OTS. It may ride north closer to 70W through the latitude of NC. But as it heads north of there, it encounters the westerlies and turns NE again. This would be a better track for the surfers since the swells would be bigger. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Euro itself came a little west, but it's still OTS. It may ride north closer to 70W through the latitude of NC. But as it heads north of there, it encounters the westerlies and turns NE again. This would be a better track for the surfers since the swells would be bigger. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Pretty much ideal on that front. As surfers do not want a storm to close to screw up local winds. Independent of the hurricane it's allready excellent in. Long beach. Best since last winter. And I am on my way down now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So the 6z GEFS bailed completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Pretty much ideal on that front. As surfers do not want a storm to close to screw up local winds. Independent of the hurricane it's allready excellent in. Long beach. Best since last winter. And I am on my way down now!!! But the CMC and NAVGEM look alike on your link and smash Cape Hatteras area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 But the CMC and NAVGEM look alike on your link and smash Cape Hatteras area. Those are some of the lowest scoring models that we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well this all comes down to whether it is captured by the trough or not. It is like coming to the fork in a road---if I take the path on the east side and the other guy goes west---after we have traveled the same distance on these 2 roads we will be very far apart. The error came at the moment I made my decision on which way to go, not after. Now the model(s) which are best are at predicting phasing will get the subsequent position correct too. This is being decided right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Those are some of the lowest scoring models that we have. cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2PNA.png What's the PR4DEV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 My thought process from a few days ago hasn't changed much, although I have moved my favored track some to the North and East. Water vapor loop this morning indicates that Joaquin should shortly begin feeling the effects of the trough over the SE US and begin moving in a more poleward direction. The trough axis is currently in a nearly neutral position with a closed ULL over Alabama. The winds to the NW of Joaquin are out of the South and that can easily be seen on water vapor imagery. This ULL is forecasted to continue to slide Southeast and cut off the flow. At that time, the trough should take on a negative tilt and Joaquin should be nearing the base, thanks to the Southerly winds that are already starting to carry some of the moisture towards Florida. Once Joaquin is in position, I compare it to a child on a seesaw. As the seesaw goes up, if the child doesn't hold on, it will slide towards the center. Now replace the seesaw with the trough axis. Theoretically as the trough axis swings negative and eventually begins to lift out, it should force a NW movement of the cyclone. Most of the 00z global guidance made a large leap to that solution, with an initial motion to the northeast, followed by a northwestward movement until finally the ULL weakens enough that it no longer has enough influence to guide the steering currents. The end result is a track further West than the consensus from yesterday, but East of the US coast. In conclusion, just about every piece of guidance shows a motion to the NW around day 3 which simply gets halted because of proximity to where the ULL eventually cuts off and weakens. I find it awfully hard to trust any model run at this point. They have all been erratic, including the Euro. You just don't notice the errors the Euro has been making because you don't have a land point to focus on. It also wouldn't completely shock me if the GGEM scored a coup here. It's been handling this pattern very well for the last several days. It was the only model that gave us significant rains Tuesday night after every other model had backed off. Furthermore, the GGEM has nearly full support from its ensembles and even though the exact track has shifted around some, it has been by far the most consistent track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Check the 500mb VOR on the CMC and GFS for the 0Z runs. The CMC captures Joaquinn fully on Sat. PM while the GFS makes a partial capture later, on early Sun AM, then loses it like a greased steer escaping a lasso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Regarding rainfall totals for our region, I wouldn't put much faith in model guided QPF. Just take a look at the current radar, it's lit up like a Christmas tree with moderate rains developing to our Southwest and advecting Northward. If I had a model to trust in this situation, I will put some faith in the RGEM because I think it has a pretty good handling on the current radar and features. It increased forecasted rain totals and now shows the possiblity of 2-3" of rain for the area, with locally higher amounts. With the ULL ending up a bit further West than initially forecasted and a less negative tilt initially, the motion has been more Southerly as opposed to Southeasterly which should bring more rain up here than models indicated. The moisture feed is directly out of the tropics, and is being aided by moisture from Joaquin. Just a matter of getting enough lift in the atmosphere to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'm somewhat of a neophyte, as I don't have any meteorological degrees or formal background -- but I am a computer programmer and have a great deal of experience in modeling with many complex variables. Taking in most of what I have read and seen over the past few days, it seems the "meandering" to the south is what was largely influencing many of the tracks. The time it spent hanging by the Bahamas allows significant time for capture scenario to miss, kicking the storm eastward. I don't think one model properly depicted the amount of time the storm actually meandered before the northward motion which appears to have commenced around 5AM.....I think the next model suite will be very telling (assuming the new northward component is ingested for processing). I would not be surprised at all to see any or all of the models flip to some sort of EC hit. This has always been a thread the needle type scenario from what I have gleaned -- it just seems we weren't sure on the length of thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Been reading since early yesterday morning that Joaquin will start its Northward drift "any minute now". 24 hours later and still meandering around with a clear Westward wobble still. What gives? And im still reading "any minute now". Florida residents are waiting patiently. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Regarding rainfall totals for our region, I wouldn't put much faith in model guided QPF. Just take a look at the current radar, it's lit up like a Christmas tree with moderate rains developing to our Southwest and advecting Northward. If I had a model to trust in this situation, I will put some faith in the RGEM because I think it has a pretty good handling on the current radar and features. It increased forecasted rain totals and now shows the possiblity of 2-3" of rain for the area, with locally higher amounts. With the ULL ending up a bit further West than initially forecasted and a less negative tilt initially, the motion has been more Southerly as opposed to Southeasterly which should bring more rain up here than models indicated. The moisture feed is directly out of the tropics, and is being aided by moisture from Joaquin. Just a matter of getting enough lift in the atmosphere to get it done. Light rain since the early evening yesterday and less than a third of an inch to show for it according to city stations. Radar looks the same as yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Been reading since early yesterday morning that Joaquin will start its Northward drift "any minute now". 24 hours later and still meandering around with a clear Westward wobble still. What gives? And im still reading "any minute now". Florida residents are waiting patiently. Sent from my LG-V410 The models have a slow NW or N drift today. They don't show a faster acceleration N or NE until tonight. Currently on track at NW 3KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The models have a slow NW or N drift today. They don't show a faster acceleration N or NE until tonight. Currently on track at NW 3KT. Thank you for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Thank you for clarifying. Here's the NHC discussion: At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin waslocated near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin isdrifting toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A fasternorthward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by aturn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed tonightand Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of the strongest windsof Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central andnorthwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from theBahamas tonight and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 But the CMC and NAVGEM look alike on your link and smash Cape Hatteras area. 6z NAVGEM is out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 6z NAVGEM is out to sea. The 18z NAVGEM was also OTS and then shifted back at 00z. The 09z SREF mean seems tightly clustered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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