MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Where are you seeing that? The vortex message from 9:34 EDT had it at 74 deg, 29 min or roughly 74.5 west. I highly doubt it moved 30 miles west reach to 75W in one hour. It looks like it to my eye. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Where are you seeing that? The vortex message from 9:34 EDT had it at 74 deg, 29 min or roughly 74.5 west. I highly doubt it moved 30 miles west reach to 75W in one hour. Because it's a Cat 4 it gets to use the HOV lane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00z NAM is a Carolina landfall Almost Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It looks like it to my eye. I could be wrong though. it's just short... but darn close IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 FWIW, Nam is a NC hit. Or southern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00z NAM is a Carolina landfall Near the SC-GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lots of hits amongst the 21z SREF. A few of them into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 here you go Wouldn't this result verbatim have a minimal impact on us? Where does it go from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents Shifted the cone way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 See you later.... ick image to zoom in – Download GIS data Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Wouldn't this result verbatim have a minimal impact on us? Where does it go from there?Idk. I didn't look what it did after bc it's the NAM. And yes it would have minimal impacts here. Probably an onshore wind and some coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On Sunday, while many other models have Joaquin nearly a thousand miles away from the coast headed NE, the NAM has it headed S into GA after a SC landfall. The NAM is exciting. Very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So I it seems like most models have the storm, after a horrible hit to the Bahamas, then going out to sea, we are now seeing the NAM hitting the east coast. I thought the NAM was not a great model for tropical systems? Is that true or do we think that the other 0z models may move back west or at least north and northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Fwiw I just looped the Sim radar of the 4k nam and it's way ots lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 On Sunday, while many other models have Joaquin nearly a thousand miles away from the coast headed NE, the NAM has it headed S into GA after a SC landfall. The NAM is exciting. Very cool You knew we would be Nam'd for one run. It's like watching Silvio on the sopranos "just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Fwiw I just looped the Sim radar of the 4k nam and it's way ots lolWas about to post the same thing. Something really screwy occurred here. Would love if dtk could comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Was about to post the same thing. Something really screwy occurred here. Would love if dtk could comment on it. The 4km can't be trusted. Look at how much 850mb energy it rips off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Fwiw I just looped the Sim radar of the 4k nam and it's way ots lolyep the 4km NAM is 1,000 miles off the coast while the 12km NAM is barreling into SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 If the GFS shows some signs of improvement and the GGEM holds serve it will raise an eyebrow. Not expecting either of these to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How does invest 90L play into all of this or does it even factor in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 yep the 4km NAM is 1,000 miles off the coast while the 12km NAM is barreling into SC Nothing like consistent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Per dtk in main thread (works for NCEP) the 4k and 12k NAM are essentially seperate models. The 4k uses some of the same data to formulate its own run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rgem is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rgem is east. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nice and rainy on the Rgem though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How is this East? It's way further west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Rgem is east. idk man. I see a nnw or nw movement between 45 and 48 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=045 http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=045&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Side by side, it only goes out to 48hours. A faster solution will lead to a hook downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How is this East? It's way further west of 18z. Exactly... Almost a capture too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rgem is super close to a phase...hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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