wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What about the gfdl-p, that model any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's what concerns me. Warm sst. Was swimming last week before it got nuts in 74 degree ocean at point pleasant beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Plenty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's what concerns me. Warm sst. Was swimming last week before it got nuts in 74 degree ocean at point pleasant beach. Coastal shelf waters will cool big time the next few days from upwelling. It's all about the Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If it made landfall down in Virginia would it really have that much of a impact on the nyc metro in terms of rain and wind?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 another bad model (IMO) like the HWRF but here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 i have no idea what to forecast Alot of rain for us seems like a sure bet...anything else is up in the air. A few more runs like the CMC, GFS and UKMET and the media will go berserk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 another bad model (IMO) like the HWRF but here you go Man, I got to be in Southold on Monday. That better be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Alot of rain for us seems like a sure bet...anything else is up in the air. A few more runs like the CMC, GFS and UKMET and the media will go berserk At this point no matter the track there are going to be severe coastal impacts. Some of the worst beach erosion and wash over I have ever seen was with hurricane bill in 08. And it never touched land. Just sent massive damaging waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 At this point no matter the track there are going to be severe coastal impacts. Some of the worst beach erosion and wash over I have ever seen was with hurricane bill in 08. And it never touched land. Just sent massive damaging waves Yeah... The beach is likely fooked after this. A week to kick up waves, and it gets worse obviously if Joaquin takes off and tracks the way the western models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it made landfall down in Virginia would it really have that much of a impact on the nyc metro in terms of rain and wind?? Look up Isabel in 2003-it would probably be similar. I remember wind gusts in Long Beach of 40-50 mph, huge waves and some rain showers, but so far NE of the center, the impacts weren't too bad. It didn't start becoming bad until you were south of Cape May. The front being pulled back west through the area and lots of rain associated with that would be the main impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think the odds are greater than 50% the system landfalls too far South to give us anything more than a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah... The beach is likely fooked after this. A week to kick up waves, and it gets worse obviously if Joaquin takes off and tracks the way the western models have it. Should be fun on the barrier island again. ... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look up Isabel in 2003-it would probably be similar. I remember wind gusts in Long Beach of 40-50 mph, huge waves and some rain showers, but so far NE of the center, the impacts weren't too bad. It didn't start becoming bad until you were south of Cape May. The front being pulled back west through the area and lots of rain associated with that would be the main impact. all depends on the angle of attack. Isabel was going NW or even WNW at the time of landfall. IF this storm were going more NNW then our impact would be greater with a landfall in NE NC or Delmarva etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Look up Isabel in 2003-it would probably be similar. I remember wind gusts in Long Beach of 40-50 mph, huge waves and some rain showers, but so far NE of the center, the impacts weren't too bad. It didn't start becoming bad until you were south of Cape May. The front being pulled back west through the area and lots of rain associated with that would be the main impact. Isabel was a purely tropical system with a completely different setup. This will be a hybrid storm. Remember with sandy with a landfall in NJ there were hurricane force winds up to maine. Here the issue is the pressure gradient between the high and the storm and the jet. It's a different beast. A landfall in the delmarva would still cause us problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Isabel was a purely tropical system with a completely different setup. This will be a hybrid storm. Remember with sandy with a landfall in NJ there were hurricane force winds up to maine. Here the issue is the pressure gradient between the high and the storm and the jet. It's a different beast. A landfall in the delmarva would still cause us problems. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 radar supports the SE models regarding tonight's precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 radar supports the SE models regarding tonight's precipIndeed. GGEM, UKMET and 00z RGEM FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Storms like this can never be treated like typical tropical systems in the gulf or Caribbean because there are often outside influences. Currently Joaquin is looking very good and shear is expected to decrease further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 radar supports the SE models regarding tonight's precip Agreed. Looks like you guys get smoked in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS?Not out far enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS? Looks like the 0z gfs is headed for Virginia or the extreme southern Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 00Z GFS has landfall on southern tip of Delmarva at Hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Opened access to wxbell. http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/ygfs_t1534_global.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 GFS shows tropical storm winds to the south shore of LI, hurricane winds once down in the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely south of 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Initialized at 999 mb. Is this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I just don't see a strengthening storm being captured like that. I believe the left hook will be further north, similar to a Sandy, just stronger. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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