winterwx21 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, I'm not making this stuff up. Here's the link... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Significant shift east by the 0z hurricane models. Very few now show a turn towards the United States. Looks as if this is about over. What a job by the Euro. Indeed. I think it had one or two runs early on where it hit NC or VA, but once it flipped that was it, locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yup. This one is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 How accurate is this? UW - CIMSSADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUEADT-Version 8.2.1Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm----- Current Analysis -----Date : 02 OCT 2015 Time : 001500 UTCLat : 22:58:10 N Lon : 74:29:47 WCI# /Pressure/ Vmax6.9 / 918.8mb/137.4ktFinal T# Adj T# Raw T#6.9 7.2 7.2Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 kmCenter Temp : -28.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0CScene Type : PINHOLE EYEPositioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSISOcean Basin : ATLANTICDvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ MethodTno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMITWeakening Flag : OFFRapid Dissipation Flag : OFFC/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :- Average 34 knot radii : 160km- Environmental MSLP : 1008mbSatellite Name : GOES13Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.8 degrees************************************************** Pressure 918?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html Not looking to go north anytime soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-avn.html Not looking to go north anytime soon... Cuba's going to need hurricane warnings soon. (TS warnings up for parts of the north coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 OUTCH And not a single one into NC, north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM not going to cut it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 NAM not going to cut it.... It's at hr 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's at hr 6 I have it at 12 and can tell already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I have it at 12 and can tell already.... Can I suspend you for a day if you're wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 I usually don't look at this model but it's certainly NW of the 18z run thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 I usually don't look at this model but it's certainly NW of the 18z run thus far. Yes.... Might be a capture well see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes.... Might be a capture well see....It's trying so hard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 It's trying so hard right now. I know right. High pressure really building to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 There's no way this doesn't get captured on this run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Captured at 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Tell me again what the significane is of it being "captured"? That's what will keep it inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Tell me again what the significane is of it being "captured"? That's what will keep it inland? That's what will turn it towards the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Tell me again what the significane is of it being "captured"? That's what will keep it inland? If it gets captured by the trough, it gets dragged inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 But the NAM was always showing this, correct? So not that big of news? Its the other models that weren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 This run will show a hit but it's the NAM guys; it's so poorly designed for tropical systems. It would be hard to take any of its solutions seriously. The trend is clearly against a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 But the NAM was always showing this, correct? So not that big of news? Its the other models that weren't? No the NAM completely changes its solution every 6 hours. As always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 12z and the 18z runs of the NAM did end up pulling it back toward the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 But the NAM was always showing this, correct? So not that big of news? Its the other models that weren't? It's gone back and forth a few times. I've even seen the 4km and it's parent domain diverge considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The 00z NAM is a Carolina landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The storm is now at 75 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The storm is now at 75 west. How significant is this? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The storm is now at 75 west. Where are you seeing that? The vortex message from 9:34 EDT had it at 74 deg, 29 min or roughly 74.5 west. I highly doubt it moved 30 miles west reach to 75W in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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