Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hello from Ft. Lauderdale! Bring the hurricane here. Florida is much better equipped to handle a major hurricane than the Northeast Equipped or not, this would be a cat 3 cat 4 if it were to continue west into FL. Would not have the weakening likely to be seen in current forecast track. Not something you want, in addition, you dont need anymore rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm just going to say this: The EURO was calling for historic snowfall amounts earlier this year when we barely got a few inches. Other models are having difficulty resolving how a hurricane keeps moving w/sw along with the zombie remnants of another storm and a stalled front along the coast. The fat lady has not even entered the building, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'm just going to say this: The EURO was calling for historic snowfall amounts earlier this year when we barely got a few inches. Other models are having difficulty resolving how a hurricane keeps moving w/sw along with the zombie remnants of another storm and a stalled front along the coast. The fat lady has not even entered the building, yet.ThisSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Equipped or not, this would be a cat 3 cat 4 if it were to continue west into FL. Would not have the weakening likely to be seen in current forecast track. Not something you want, in addition, you dont need anymore rain! Extreme south FL has actually been in a drought. 15 inches of rain would most certainly end that drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still quite a bit of spread in the 15z SREF although I would rank them below the JMA is usefulness. I thought nothing was ranked below the JMA... except maybe the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Extreme south FL has actually been in a drought. 15 inches of rain would most certainly end that drought. That it would! I can only image what the rainfall totals in SC and NC would do if they come to fruition. Add that to whatever comes IF this does make landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at how the GGEM captures Joaquin on Saturday afternoon. It's comparable to putting your arm around someone while walking. The hurricane becomes embedded within the cyclonic flow, first on a North heading and then to the Northwest. Now compare the same panel on the 12z GFS. The trough doesn't dig as far Southeast so even though Joaquin is in nearly the same position, it doesn't have nearly the same affects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Look at the model and tell me it didn't initialize further east then the setup... please. I suppose It could be just a hair east on the initialization, but I'm not sure it's enough to matter. It looks pretty close to me. At 12:15Z the visible and IR satellite looked like it was just north of the eastern tip of Crooked Island. That's pretty close to the initialization from what I can see. What are you seeing? Edit: Anyone know what the parallax error might be for the tropical floater. I assumed it was negligible, but I'm not 100% sure that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the system phases during the next 36-48 hours with the upper level low then you will likely see a landfall somewhere between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The longer the delay, the slightly further Northeast on the coast it will go. A bit of that has to do with exactly where the trough cuts off, and then how quickly it moves, because a further southwest cut off, which has been the model trend the last two days, the less influence it will have. The 00z GFS and to an extent the 06z GFS had the system interacting with the ULL energy but never trully phased, so even though the storm motion was influenced by the counterclockwise flow, the system remained more of a separate entity before ultimately still escaping East. To some extent, the 12z GFS and other 12z suite has shown this to an extent, with a slight jog back to the NNW before ultimately getting carried away. Hope that answers your question. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This right here is the dilemma we have with individuals and the media trying to predict the weather on bias VS. actual logic and sound science. (I guess it is human nature) The media will inevitably jump on the bandwagon of ratings, we know that. We need to not discredit the EURO solution (or any outlier we are dealing with) but analyse whether its outcome is plausible given the current setup and progression the players on the field. To say, "toss it" cause it stands alone is a big mistake. in this case we need to determine if the interaction (or lack there of) as shown by the Euro, GFS (to a degree) and several others has more or less weight based on what is happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro has zero interest in the capture scenario . You can find models that pull this back , but the best skill score model has not moved and it`s ensembles have clustered east for 3 straight runs. Anything is possible , but at some point you need to respect the better guidance . This should go east and we ( thankfully ) will be unaffected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ouch...we've been severely chopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not one model is properly showing all of the rain currently in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sorry for the questions, I'm trying to learn....but if it gets caught in the ULL....that's what will pull it inland, correc?tAsk away, please. Best way for all of us to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost a due West heading now. Slight south wobbles but overall right along the 23rd parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You're probably going to be able to see the cirrus outflow in Southeast Florida soon. What a massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ouch...we've been severely chopped. We may get shut out entirely-NAM running now and precip having trouble working NW through 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I suppose It could be just a hair east on the initialization, but I'm not sure it's enough to matter. It looks pretty close to me. At 12:15Z the visible and IR satellite looked like it was just north of the eastern tip of Crooked Island. That's pretty close to the initialization from what I can see. What are you seeing? Edit: Anyone know what the parallax error might be for the tropical floater. I assumed it was negligible, but I'm not 100% sure that's true. To my understanding, they are not much different in altitude than the geosynchronous orbital satellites. So I would expect it to be negligible. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not one model is properly showing all of the rain currently in the area. I noticed that too-is it possible it's virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I noticed that too-is it possible it's virga? Nope i can confirm it's raining here in Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some embedded 35dbz on radar, doubt that's all virga. We have some decent mid-level lift over the area so although I don't expect Earth shattering totals tonight everyone should see some more steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's been showering here for an hour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We may get shut out entirely-NAM running now and precip having trouble working NW through 24 hrs. Lol what? It's raining here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Probably going to make a run for 130 knots if that eye can clear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's been showering here for an hour now Please bring the discussion into the October thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol what? It's raining here now I'm talking tomorrow on. Looks like we all get some light showers tonight based on current radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Doesn't matter much because it's all the same end game but the ECMWF OP is still well to the East of its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As useless as most people view the NAM. The 18z run looks like it is going to slam into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As useless as most people view the NAM. The 18z run looks like it is going to slam into NC. It does, late capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 nice pinhole eye cleared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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