IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I almost can't believe I am seeing this. Looks like a major shift back to the West. Almost a 50/50 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still headed W. almost due south of forecast plot. Curious to see how sharp of a northly turn this makes over the next several hours. Florida better hope the computer models are right and it starts taking a jog north really soon....especially if it keeps wobbling south at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like it made a recent SW jog again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It definitely took a southwest jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What is the significance of a southwest jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What is the significance of a southwest jog? On track with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What is the significance of a southwest jog? potential for more interaction with ULL over SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If it's going to feel the effects from the trough you're going to want to see at least some signs of it getting tugged NW in the next 36-48 hours rather than due North or Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks guys. So the more west it goes, the more east it ends up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Also, for those that really want to see this bomb out tomorrow, in order for the upper level pattern to be maximized you're going to want it to be parallel to the upper level winds associated with the trough rather than perpendicular, otherwise once the trough induces the Easterly jog the shear is going to increase. So in other words, you really want to see a NW movement within 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thanks guys. So the more west it goes, the more east it ends up? It's a bit more complex then that. Considering the Euro initialized further east then the actual current setup of the storm, theres still a lot of uncertainty. I think any westerly jog right now could help it eventually get caught up in the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro also weakens the convection on the NW side tonight and then keeps the Northern half rather weak tomorrow. I don't know if that has any impact at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is akin to watching a potential MECS just miss a phase in the winter. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is akin to watching a potential MECS just miss a phase in the winter. Sent from my LG-V410 Yeah, then we sit here for two days trying to analyse every water vapor loop available hoping that new data might make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sorry for the questions, I'm trying to learn....but if it gets caught in the ULL....that's what will pull it inland, correc?t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro also weakens the convection on the NW side tonight and then keeps the Northern half rather weak tomorrow. I don't know if that has any impact at all. I would think so. This bad boy is definitly strengthening right now. I see this maxing out high end cat 4. The euro may be king but it's not always right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, then we sit here for two days trying to analyse every water vapor loop available hoping that new data might make a difference.Yes but with a strong hurricane, potentially reaching category 5 status, new data may continually make a difference. This isn't different s/w's coming together and the new data if it being fifty miles one way or the other makes a difference. This is a exceedingly strong hurricane which continues to strengthen over models expectations. Combine that with the synoptic features at work and this is still a major threat to be watched. The ensembles shifting back west even show this. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still quite a bit of spread in the 15z SREF although I would rank them below the JMA is usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 as painful as...... Why are you posting radar loops of a snowstorm in a hurricane model discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The issue here is that this is such a thread the needle situation with a small window for this system to escape out to the NE ahead of the ULL. any slow down, intensification, decrease in speed, etc, etc, etc can drastically change the eventual outcome. Not saying it will different than what is being show now, but the potential is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Why are you posting radar loops of a snowstorm in a hurricane model discussion thread? jeesh, relax will ya, was a joke. Frustrating weather day, just a reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, then we sit here for two days trying to analyse every water vapor loop available hoping that new data might make a difference.Bingo, lol!Btw I really appreciate your analysis and input. Its been fun to read you and everyone else's posts here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sorry for the questions, I'm trying to learn....but if it gets caught in the ULL....that's what will pull it inland, correc?t If the system phases during the next 36-48 hours with the upper level low then you will likely see a landfall somewhere between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The longer the delay, the slightly further Northeast on the coast it will go. A bit of that has to do with exactly where the trough cuts off, and then how quickly it moves, because a further southwest cut off, which has been the model trend the last two days, the less influence it will have. The 00z GFS and to an extent the 06z GFS had the system interacting with the ULL energy but never trully phased, so even though the storm motion was influenced by the counterclockwise flow, the system remained more of a separate entity before ultimately still escaping East. To some extent, the 12z GFS and other 12z suite has shown this to an extent, with a slight jog back to the NNW before ultimately getting carried away. Hope that answers your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 jeesh, relax will ya, was a joke. Frustrating weather day, just a reference. It's frustrating for those of us trying to keep this topic scientific and for the mods that have to delete this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There is no mention of any initialization errors with the 12z ECMWF. This is a fish storm! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd There is no mention of it but it clearly is west of where it initialized on the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bingo, lol! Btw I really appreciate your analysis and input. Its been fun to read you and everyone else's posts here. Thanks. Glad to be contributing in a positive manner. Tracking major hurricane Joaquin has truly been a humbling experience. He may still have a few tricks up his sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the system phases during the next 36-48 hours with the upper level low then you will likely see a landfall somewhere between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The longer the delay, the slightly further Northeast on the coast it will go. A bit of that has to do with exactly where the trough cuts off, and then how quickly it moves, because a further southwest cut off, which has been the model trend the last two days, the less influence it will have. The 00z GFS and to an extent the 06z GFS had the system interacting with the ULL energy but never trully phased, so even though the storm motion was influenced by the counterclockwise flow, the system remained more of a separate entity before ultimately still escaping East. To some extent, the 12z GFS and other 12z suite has shown this to an extent, with a slight jog back to the NNW before ultimately getting carried away. Hope that answers your question. It answers my unasked question...thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There is no mention of any initialization errors with the 12z ECMWF. This is a fish storm! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Look at the model and tell me it didn't initialize further east then the setup... please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Florida better hope the computer models are right and it starts taking a jog north really soon....especially if it keeps wobbling south at times... Hello from Ft. Lauderdale! Bring the hurricane here. Florida is much better equipped to handle a major hurricane than the Northeast is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the system phases during the next 36-48 hours with the upper level low then you will likely see a landfall somewhere between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The longer the delay, the slightly further Northeast on the coast it will go. A bit of that has to do with exactly where the trough cuts off, and then how quickly it moves, because a further southwest cut off, which has been the model trend the last two days, the less influence it will have. The 00z GFS and to an extent the 06z GFS had the system interacting with the ULL energy but never trully phased, so even though the storm motion was influenced by the counterclockwise flow, the system remained more of a separate entity before ultimately still escaping East. To some extent, the 12z GFS and other 12z suite has shown this to an extent, with a slight jog back to the NNW before ultimately getting carried away. Hope that answers your question. Great analysis of the possible outcomes here. Thank you for the honest outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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