mike1984 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is JMA out to sea or inland? 2 posters say 2 different things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Is JMA out to sea or inland? 2 posters say 2 different things!OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFLD still hits Cape Hatteras area. Quickly falls apart as it moves north and then northeast passing just south of us Tues AM. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fghm-full%2F12%2Fghm-full_joaquin11l_090_mslp_10wnd.gif&model=ghm-full&area=joaquin11l&storm=joaquin11l&cycle=12¶m=mslp_10wnd&fhr=090&group=Tropical+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151001+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've yet to see the 12z JMA. Only the 06z which was OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 She's been singing since yday. This is thankfully over. You guys are so much smarter then the NHC. I mean all those idiots with big degrees. Why anyone would listen to them!!! We do not need a direct hit for this to do tremendous coastal damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro heading NE and then almost due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I've yet to see the 12z JMA. Only the 06z which was OTS. The 12z JMA is way out to sea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I can't believe you guys are even looking at the JMA when has that model ever been correct and its certainly not a tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The energy associated with Ida and the trough to the East of Maine are both much weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Quite a bit of changes as we get into the 72 hour period. The 500mb low is quite a bit further South. It looks like it will take a NW jog again. The problem is that the mid-levels winds are aligned more Southerly so Joaquin can't make much Westward progress so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At hr 84 the 12z ECWMF is NW of the 00z position (00z Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is about 1-1.25 with the pre I wonder if NYC ends up with less rain this weekend compared to Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You guys are so much smarter then the NHC. I mean all those idiots with big degrees. Why anyone would listen to them!!! We do not need a direct hit for this to do tremendous coastal damage Oh yea. its on. 15 foot just offshore. Very similar to Bill? looking like 15-16 second period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At hr 84 the 12z ECWMF is NW of the 00z position (00z Monday) How much so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is about 1-1.25 with the pre I wonder if NYC ends up with less rain this weekend compared to Tuesday night I have little faith in model QPF when you have a tropical connection. I think we saw how far off they can be Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is about 1-1.25 with the pre I wonder if NYC ends up with less rain this weekend compared to Tuesday night that's the wettest model-some have less than .50, not even sure it's a true PRE anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 that's the wettest model-some have less than .50, not even sure it's a true PRE anymore. The NAM, GFS and GGEM all have rain in the area tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 EURO IS OTS and weakening at 111hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bermuda gets slammed this run. Once beyond 96hrs it gets accelerated off to the Northeast, faster than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yep But current movement does not add up to the tracks that the ensembles show cause the hurricane is moving west to sw .. I believe this has to do with the steering winds presently .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The NAM, GFS and GGEM all have rain in the area tomorrow. they do, but not much. sharp gradient as well with most of it offshore.... At this point, let's keep it south and have a nice weekend. that high in Eastern Canada could supress it all south easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is not even close. Analyazing 50 mile shifts west is meaningless. It's way out to sea and not even close to landfall anywhere near the US. The closest it gets is to Florida (right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 they do, but not much. sharp gradient as well with most of it offshore.... At this point, let's keep it south and have a nice weekend. Whenever you see a sharp northern cutoff, it's usually because of strong confluence. The result usually is much less rain then forecasted on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We still have the NAVGEM Hey, better than nothing...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We still have the NAVGEM Hey, better than nothing...I think Also the CMC and the GFLD are still holding on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Apparently the euro initialized off from the current location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Still headed W. almost due south of forecast plot. Curious to see how sharp of a northly turn this makes over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFDL http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015100112-joaquin11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFDL http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2015100112-joaquin11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation What a pummel job if that were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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