dWave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ..Or is it just that the trend east is temporarily focused on us. we'll soon be out the cone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I don't like the term State of Emergency because people will make it out to be something more than its intended use, which is simply to active federal funds for quick disaster response. Even if the track ends up far enough East to minimize impacts, you're still going to have a lot of coastal flooding and as we know NJ has a lot of low lying barrier islands and beach fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Well, through 36 hours the 12z GFS is southwest of the 06z position. Also the trough appears to be digging just a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFS is slightly SW of the 06z position and quite a bit SW of the 00z position at 45hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The trough axis is even less negative than the 06z run at 54hrs but the ridge to the North looks stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No big negatively tilted trough, just an ULL that closes off over the Gulf coast and eventually fills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS starts with a higher pressure again. I don't understand how a difference of about 40mb wouldn't affect the algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Slowly but surely caving to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Now the natural rotation of the closed ULL is going to try and drag it back some towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NJ issued state of EmergencyCheck out the vendor thread. Better safe than sorry I guess but someone is going to look silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS starts with a higher pressure again. I don't understand how a difference of about 40mb wouldn't affect the algorithms. It's been posted 1000 times that the resolution of the GFS isn't capable of properly initializing the pressure. It's really annoying to see the same thing posted over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If it crosses 35N East of 70W then its probably a gonner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is going to be an escape out to sea this run. I think the writing's on the wall with Joaquin-the trough just won't be able to catch it in time, and enough weakness exists in the ridge to allow it an escape hatch. Still a coastal flood threat with beach erosion, but besides some moderate rain with the retro grading front, the heavy rain should be suppressed south closer to the upper low and the hurricane out to sea. Huge win for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looking at the 500mb wind pattern you can see how on early Saturday morning the trough kicks Joaquin East instead of a phase. All you have left after that is weak stirring currents with a storm that's already so far Northeast that the onshore winds from the ULL don't have enough influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS is going to be an escape out to sea this run. I think the writing's on the wall with Joaquin-the trough just won't be able to catch it in time, and enough weakness exists in the ridge to allow it an escape hatch. Still a coastal flood threat with beach erosion, but besides some moderate rain with the retro grading front, the heavy rain should be suppressed south closer to the upper low and the hurricane out to sea. Huge win for the Euro. Strongly agree. The big loser is the hurricane models. I can see the GFS and CMC screwing it up but those models are supposed to handle tropical systems and instead we have a global model schooling them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro is king....period! Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can someone tell me what a West vs. East solution means in terms of landfall? If the system heads as far East as the current consensus would indicate then the biggest impact here would be some coastal flooding and showery weather, other than tomorrow which looks pretty wet on the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS another tick closer to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And another pass through eye, 4th, looks too be happening shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 If the system heads as far East as the current consensus would indicate then the biggest impact here would be some coastal flooding and showery weather, other than tomorrow which looks pretty wet on the NAM and GFS. Alright, thanks. Can't keep up with this these threads. I guess we just have to wait and see then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I'd still caution that we still have another 24 GFS runs and 12 more Euro runs to go before Joaquin would be passing our latitude, although I would hope we can eliminate more of the outliers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Alright, thanks. Can't keep up with this these threads. I guess we just have to wait and see then. Agreed, I think we get through the rains tonight and tomorrow and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS another tick closer to Euro On it's current track through 111 hrs, it isn't even going to LF in the Maritimes...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not sure if this is just another wobble but the mean motion does appear to be more Westerly. One thing that hasn't been discussed much, wow has Florida dodged another bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed, I think we get through the rains tonight and tomorrow and see what happens. Models are trending drier in that department too. We may see very little rain in the end. GFS through 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 KAMX radar is actually starting to pick up the outermost bands in the far Western Bahamas http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Models are trending drier in that department too. We may see very little rain in the end. They have been waffling back and forth. Do I need to remind you about awful they were the nigh before last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Check out the vendor thread. Better safe than sorry I guess but someone is going to look silly. SoE frees up monies for local works to grab over time. Which is needed to local FD/PD/EMT, reality is localized flooding is already happening. There are tidal areas that will flood and create travel and access issues. No one looks silly for an SoE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Models are trending drier in that department too. We may see very little rain in the end. GFS through 96 The upper low is digging so far south that the easterly tropical moisture flux is now concentrating well south of the Tri-State area, mostly over the Carolinas. I mentioned this as a possibility yesterday. Over a few days 2 or 3" of rain could fall but it's something that wouldn't cause flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 12z UKMET appears to have caved to the Euro as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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