Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would have to imagine that if Joaquin stalls a bit more or is a bit SW of where the models are predicting, that energy coming into the SE US would have a better chance of grabbing it and pulling it more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bother posting SREFs? leaning towards landfall. Looks similar to the GEFS mean with nearly a 50/50 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would have to imagine that if Joaquin stalls a bit more or is a bit SW of where the models are predicting, that energy coming into the SE US would have a better chance of grabbing it and pulling it more NW. It's all about the timing between the negative tilt and the location of Joaquin. We have a window to work with and the trend has been to miss that window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With a CAT 4 sitting off the SE coast , I would not call anything off. Yes 2 private METS made their call . 1 earlier than the other as they are sticking with the Euro . The Euro ensembles did come east again , but 72 hours is an eternity when trying to solve such a complex set up . If this business has taught me anything it is , never say never . It only take one suite filled with new data to change the minds of those who think they " know " . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I will say one thing, US landfall or not, this is an extremely dangerous storm, and it's probably going to end the streak of years without a cat 5 in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 With a CAT 4 sitting off the SE coast , I would not call anything off. Yes 2 private METS made their call . 1 earlier than the other as they are sticking with the Euro . The Euro ensembles did come east again , but 72 hours is an eternity when trying to solve such a complex set up . If this business has taught me anything it is , never say never . It only take one suite filled with new data to change the minds of those who think they " know " . I agree. I think one still needs to be very cautious. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I hear you - However, I'd argue that the longer it drifts to the southwest, the less chance the storm has of being captured. The ridge in the Atlantic seems to want to slide off the the east in due time, and the longer it sits, the likelihood increases that the storm will be able to slide on out to sea. The EC has been on top of this for several runs now. I would have to imagine that if Joaquin stalls a bit more or is a bit SW of where the models are predicting, that energy coming into the SE US would have a better chance of grabbing it and pulling it more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NOAA will launch dropsondes around Joaquin to better understand environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NOAA will launch dropsondes around Joaquin to better understand environment. What they should do is launch them around the remnants of Ida. That seems to be causing a lot of model havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What they should do is launch them around the remnants of Ida. That seems to be causing a lot of model havoc. Map: http://t.co/zwf3opsaGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Mid Atlantic forum pro forecast says looks like its moving north west based on radar thing he looked at. Anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Interesting that the Euro didn't need the extra data to show the more easterly track that it has had for days. There have been big changes insome of the track guidance overnight, perhaps due to data from thesynoptic surveillance mission flown by the NOAA G-IV jet for the 00Zmodel cycle. In particular, the GFS and UKMET have shifted eastwardby several hundred miles in 3 to 4 days relative to their previoussolutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 4Dvar pipeline is very good at extrapolation, but the Euro has failed before and more recently has been losing to the GFS. It's about 50/50 depending on the event type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z NAM through 51hrs is SE of the 06z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 nam is trying to stay connected with the energy in the SE but significantly different than 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z NAM through 51hrs is SE of the 06z position. Was pretty far west so meh'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Recon doing 3rd pass through eye momentarily.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 nam is trying to stay connected with the energy in the SE but significantly different than 6z run too strong for even that ULL to effect it. Beta effect wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 12z NAM still shows a projected landfall in Northern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM is garbage Careful, tracks W once N of 35 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 small shift east in NHC track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Thank god we will avoid this. Not what we need. Nothing is set in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 small shift east in NHC track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even with that track, OUR area will have significant effects.... please do not let our guards down if its not a direct impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM starts Joaquin about 50 mb higher than actual pressure. Why should its run been given any consideration? That much of a difference will surely affect the algorithms and their output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM starts Joaquin about 50 man higher than actual pressure. Why should its run been given any consideration? That much of a difference will surely affect the algorithms and their output. Off Initialization you are correct , but keep in mind this is the first NAM run that captures the system at 35 N . So better to wait for the rest of the suite to see which side of the ledger it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011504 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a 117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer in the southwestern eyewall. The latest central pressure was 942 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity is increased to 110 kt. Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus outflow is good in all directions. Joaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of decreasing vertical shear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour period. The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken due to increasing shear. However, several of the global models forecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level divergence and show a falling central pressure. The new forecast will continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not be a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is 220/5. Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge. This pattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or so and then turn northward. After 36 hours, the guidance remains very divergent. The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models forecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic States. The ECMWF continues to forecast a slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to sea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a generally northward motion. Given the spread and the possibility that the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the forecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at this time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models, but to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus models. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today depending on how the models do (or do not) change. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas should be complete. The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or so will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands. 2. Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is still low, since there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions remains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New England. It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the U.S. east coast. A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely not occur until at least Friday morning. 3. Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the storm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches. 4. It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Regardless of Joaquin's track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend. 5. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if the center of Joaquin stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 22.9N 74.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 23.7N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 25.2N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 27.5N 73.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 40.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW the HRRR has rain overspreading the area around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NJ issued state of Emergency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW Christie just put NJ in SoE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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