Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 if this gets mixed down it would be quite windy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's just as strong of a system moving in from the same direction that would spell disaster for the coast if correct Verbatim its a much smaller wind feild. So overall impacts would be less then Sandy surge wise. Wind wise it would be worse in the right front quadrant especially if any sort of eye wall is still intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Too early to pull up the storm surge demographics, but Wildwood would be underwater in this scenario. Let's get back tho to the tracking. It's not about our backyards.Yes, WIldwood would probably be under water....until the water receded.There would also be a lot of damage. But it wouldn't stay like that forever. Storms hit coastlines all the time. They usually recover quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 i have no idea what to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Jesus Marlyand gets absolulety hammered. Includes D.C as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z still didn't initialize with the recon data and the pressure was too high. Looking forward to 0z. Hope to get some sort of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hope the servers can handle the load if the OP Euro and ensembles show a similar solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 No it wouldn't mean the end of anything. Stop!! If 18z GFS verifies say goodbye to Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Hope the servers can handle the load if the OP Euro and ensembles show a similar solution tonight. I compared the 0z and 12z vigorously and there was a slight trend towards a ULL capture and clearing of that false junk in the North Atlantic. The only reason the Euro ends up so far east is because of the far SW dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 If 18z GFS verifies say goodbye to Atlantic City. Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 If 18z GFS verifies say goodbye to Atlantic City. No just no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 i have no idea what to forecast As someone who follows what you say quite closely this has me more concerned than the models. On a side not would be nice if people stopped comparing this to Sandy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I compared the 0z and 12z vigorously and there was a slight trend towards a ULL capture and clearing of that false junk in the North Atlantic. The only reason the Euro ends up so far east is because of the far SW dip. There were a number of 12z EPS members showing landfalls from the MA to the NE which held onto the stronger block to the east Of New England like the 18z GFS. So now we wait to see if more ensembles and the OP move to this idea at 0z. The cluster of members showing the landfalls also have the SW dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Verbatim the 18z GFS 10m winds are just under Hurricane strength for most of the NJ beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 While the OMG BIBLIKAL posts are overstated, there's no question this has the chance to be very damaging if hits the shoreline north of Hatteras with a west-of-north path. Surge gets gnarly b/c of the geography of the Atlantic shoreline and especially the bay. IIRC Isabel did about $2B in damage to VA and MD, even though it came ashore in NC - granted, Isabel was huge, but a direct hit to the Chesapeake from a Cat 2 would be a very costly landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 As someone who follows what you say quite closely this has me more concerned than the models. On a side not would be nice if people stopped comparing this to Sandy.... Forky didn't say anything wrong. This is really tough to forecast as all options are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Verbatim the 18z GFS 10m winds are just under Hurricane strength for most of the NJ beaches. Would only compound the erosion issues we've seen of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HWRF 115MPH by hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think the board crashes when the 0z runs come out later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 As someone who follows what you say quite closely this has me more concerned than the models. On a side not would be nice if people stopped comparing this to Sandy.... Verbatim the 18z gfs would mean similar effects on what we experience with sandy. The wind profile is insane on the gfs...be great full it's just one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Good awareness already ongoing outlining the risks. NJ OEM has already been issuing statements to local municipalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 HWRF is 7 mb lower than 12z at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Verbatim the 18z gfs would mean similar effects on what we experience with sandy. The wind profile is insane on the gfs...be great full it's just one runThe rain will be much more intense. Sandy was fairly dry North of the center and didn't have a PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 18z HWRF 115MPH by hr 60. If you could post images or a link that would be great! I'm worried that's this one will end up missing us to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Good awareness already ongoing outlining the risks. NJ OEM has already been issuing statements to local municipalities. Being in the public safety field and as we all know, the earlier you can start getting the word out to the public to at least highlight the potential the better off you are. I would think that if the models continue to show significant storm impacts to the state for late week and into the weekend the NJ ROIC will begin increasing its operational response levels over the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Shear weakened some 10kts already. BOMBS AWAY!!!! -stolen 18z HWRF at hour 93 strikes the NC coast as a Cat 3 moving NNW 33.4N/74.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 While the OMG BIBLIKAL posts are overstated, there's no question this has the chance to be very damaging if hits the shoreline north of Hatteras with a west-of-north path. Surge gets gnarly b/c of the geography of the Atlantic shoreline and especially the bay. IIRC Isabel did about $2B in damage to VA and MD, even though it came ashore in NC - granted, Isabel was huge, but a direct hit to the Chesapeake from a Cat 2 would be a very costly landfall. I'll vouch for this. The surge into the Chesapeake Bay was immense even though landfall was in southern NC for Isabel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How much of an influence will the the recon data will have on the 00z runs including the HWRF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Good awareness already ongoing outlining the risks. NJ OEM has already been issuing statements to local municipalities.Coast Guard already acutely aware of this, as is Suffolk, Nassau and NYC OEMSent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Forky didn't say anything wrong. This is really tough to forecast as all options are on the table. I didn't say he did. My post was stating that if he doesn't have input it must be very complex or he doesn't have a grip on it yet. Was not meant against him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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