Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-MODELS


Rjay

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It is separated/cut off from the flow  , it is alone waiting for a hook up. 

Don ,  it is amazing that this would be pulled out by the weaker trough to the east  like the ( Euro UKIE GFS ) 

now all see .

It would be an amazing win for the Euro . And DT ( cough , cough ) .

 

The stronger NEG tilted trough coming into the SE misses this on the guidance and just can`t tug it west fast enough before the tug east . 

I agree.

 

It will certainly be a big win for the Euro if it plays out. I'm still not fully sold on that idea, but the probability has increased overnight, especially with the GFS moving toward it.

 

I hope this outcome doesn't lead to renewed criticism of the GFS. The ECMWF continues to have the highest verification scores, on average, but that doesn't mean it will always have the best solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 

 

06z HWRF - NC landfall

06z GFDL - VA landfall

00z ECMWF - OTS

06z GFS - OTS

00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS

00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall

00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72.

00z GEFS mean - NC landfall

06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS

06z NAM - NC landfall

00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree.

 

It will certainly be a big win for the Euro if it plays out. I'm still not fully sold on that idea, but the probability has increased overnight, especially with the GFS moving toward it.

 

I hope this outcome doesn't lead to renewed criticism of the GFS. The ECMWF continues to have the highest verification scores, on average, but that doesn't mean it will always have the best solution.

What amazes me (and I'm making an assumption here that the Euro is right or close to it) that it is superior to models designed to track hurricanes (The hurricane models like the GDFL etc)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 

 

06z HWRF - NC landfall

06z GFDL - VA landfall

00z ECMWF - OTS

06z GFS - OTS

00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS

00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall

00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72.

00z GEFS mean - NC landfall

06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS

06z NAM - NC landfall

00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS

 

Thanks for this summary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's amazing.   When the Euro didn't flip at 12z yesterday, I had a feeling that the other models would start to move to its solution.  Not over yet, but looks like Euro has the right idea.  When the storm went much further SW (and delayed a move north), plus the monster intensity of the storm everything changed.

did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 

 

06z HWRF - NC landfall

06z GFDL - VA landfall

00z ECMWF - OTS

06z GFS - OTS

00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS

00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall

00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72.

00z GEFS mean - NC landfall

06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS

06z NAM - NC landfall

00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS

 

Unorthodox, but the RGEM and GGEM both indicate NC landfall as well.  Tropical forecasting is notoriously fickle and I believe too many of us are treating this like a typical Noreaster.  Any wobble in track can impact the synoptic outcome quite a bit here.  Look at the current spread on the GFS Ensemble package out to 60 hours.  It's over a 250 mile spread.  Could you imagine what kind of curses we'd be throwing the models way with that kind of spread if we were tracking a snowstorm at this range?    Moral of the story: It's not over yet, even if the likely outcome is OTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east?

Nope.   I bought into it lock stock and barrel.  But on that end, it only missed by 75-100 miles.  Granted NYC was in that cone so it was a bigger deal.  In this case with Joaquim, it's thousands of miles and landfall versus a fish storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east?

 

It's really not the same kind of situation. The January storm was a heartbreaking bust for folks on the western fringe, but the Euro missed by all of a hundred miles. If that shifting edge had been in central Pennsylvania, very few people would have taken notice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are the new 12z tracks. 

 

11L_tracks_latest.png

 

As disappointing as this may be for some, while others rejoice that live near the ocean, a consensus is starting to build for a close but no cigar scenario.

Insurance companies exhale too.  This would be a 25 billion dollar storm easily. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My general thought process that I outlined yesterday still stands for the most part. The 00z ECMWF came very close to a 00z GFS esque solution. The main reason for this sudden Eastward shift in my opinion is the trend to weaken the ULL energy over the SE US.

 

f96.gif

 

 

Watch as the system gets tugged NW here from the previous image to hour 120

 

f120.gif

 

Instead of being pinwheeled in like the 00z GFS did, the ULL weakens and the system is permitted to escape OTS.

 

f144.gif

 

This entire setup was based on an anomalously deep, negatively tilted trough, that eventually lifted North. That is all but gone now. No negative tilt and no real mechanism to draw it up the coast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to clarify this isn't a fish storm. A fish storm doesn't effect anyone but "fish" hence the term or shipping interests of course.

The central Bahamas are currently ground zero for a major hurricane with major damage likely.

 

Yeah and either way this is going to affect our area, at least the outer bands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are obviously still a few EPS members that have a deep enough negatively trough that would be capable of drawing Joaquin NW as evidenced by this panel on the mean.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_4.png

 

The problem, at least regarding impacts to our region, is that much like the case is during Winter, we need to thread the needle. 

 

If the trough goes negative too quickly then Joaquin will likely get drawn into the SC or NC coast. Too late or with not enough tilt and Joaquin heads OTS. We need perfect timing and the 00z GFS gave us that. A delayed but not denied capture. It may just come down to the fact that we need too much to go right in order to get the desired solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two days ago the models were clustered to hit NJ. Then yesterday they were clustered to hit NC. Now they are clustered to go OTS. I think we need some consistency from the models before any of us celebrate/panic.

 

Euro has been out to sea for days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday when the models had the PRE pinwheeling past us and nailing the mid-atlantic it was a sign of the more negatively tilted trough causing the front to retrograde well inland. Now most of the modeling keeps that South of us or just offshore, likely a result of the less negative tilt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro has been out to sea for days.

It's hard to ignore the consistency of the Euro, and then to see most of the other guidance make a giant leap towards it last night certainly raises an eyebrow. This wouldn't be the first time models over corrected either. We still have to take into account all of the moving parts and how small adjustments in the pipeline can have large consequences. 

 

For one, the globals and have been underestimating the intensity of Joaquin since the beginning. We are unsure what effect that ultimately has. The GFDL and HWRF still both show East coast landfalling hurricanes, and both initialized close to the correct surface pressures. I would give those models more weight since we are dealing with a full blown major hurricane. It's not the same as was with Erika, which never really got its act together. 

 

I do agree that the Euro and OTS solution definitely has merrit, I am just not willing to put all of my eggs in that basket yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I forgot to mention the 00z GGEM, which landfalls the system near OBX and then slides North towards our area. It has good agreement from the 00z GGEM ensemble mean. 

 

We have a trend developing where the more reliable models are misses and the less reliable show a hit. 

 

Attempting to track and forecast this system has been a very humbling experience, scientifically speaking. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...