RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro came so close to pulling that off. The storm turned NW at hr 108 and continued to hr 120 before pulling back to the NE. A change from 12z nonetheless...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING I'd still be careful taking Euro verbatim for this setup is unique. There are a lot of moving parts at play here, and as mentioned before, we're still 48 hours outside the Euro's "deadly range". Of course, the Euro can 100% verify and no one here would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very typical EURO stays the course & others jump towards it. Then EURO may head slightly west and boom final outcome. Now this is tropical season so we're still a long way out, but i'm not excited at all. What I am excited about though is that this is the first 00z EURO run I've stayed up for....WINTER IS COMING It was starting to suggest what other solutions have except it was way too late and too east for it to do enough. I hope we'll know more by tomorrow and Friday. Joaquin SW movement is also throwing a monkey wrench into the entire process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As of right now, every solution is on the table. Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 As of right now, every solution is on the table. Goodnight Pretty much all that can be said right now. I'd hate to be NHC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The blocking highs are very strong though and there's a cutoff trough that turns negative over the SE..I would definitely lean towards east coast impact right now but the euro is concerning..It's not budging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS 60hr 500mb prog. 2 massive blocks...One over the north atlantic and one over SE canada that's traveling east..It would really be shocking to see this thing escape IMO with those blocks, usually some sort of phase is inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hearing from a couple pro mets that the last few Euro runs were missing a bunch of data from the Pacific as well as West Coast. Not clear what impact, if any, this would have. Can anyone confirm? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hearing from a couple pro mets that the last few Euro runs were missing a bunch of data from the Pacific as well as West Coast. Not clear what impact, if any, this would have. Can anyone confirm? Sent from my LG-V410 I know it has some weird phantom energy over the Canadian maritime. Gfs Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Looks like the new 5am nhc track was shifted east big time now they have the storm sitting off the jersy coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Welp, 06z is a cave boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html NCEP ENS Within a 72hr window..... I wouldn't bet against them being dead wrong - imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Welp, 06z is a cave boys. on the 6z gfs, is that the storm well off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 on the 6z gfs, is that the storm well off the coast Yes. East of the Benchmark and up in to the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 North Carolina to Nova Scotia in 2 model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Both the 0z UKMET and the 6z GFS broke to what the Euro had been showing all along. This is what usually happens when the Euro locks onto a solution and doesn't wavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would still like to see another model run or two before calling this threat completely dead, but it is certainly on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Does anyone know why GFS keeps intializing 30 mb off the actual pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin is drifting and is modeled to continue to do so on the GFS and ECMWF. That gives time for the ridge to move sufficiently far off eastern Canada to allow a weakness between ridges to become available to allow it to avoid landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would still like to see another model run or two before calling this threat completely dead, but it is certainly on life support. The Euro would have to shift west between now and Friday 12z to make that happen since it's the leader which the other models have shifted to. I never stop watching a tropical cyclone until it actually is confirmed that it's heading away from the coast. Once the acceleration north and northeast starts on Friday, we should be nearly certain of the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro would have to shift west between now and Friday 12z to make that happen since it's the leader which the other models have shifted to. I never stop watching a tropical cyclone until it actually is confirmed that it's heading away from the coast. Once the acceleration north and northeast starts on Friday, we should be nearly certain of the final outcome. Agreed, still a very delicate setup with alot of moving parts, wise not to completely let our guard down just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Agreed, still a very delicate setup with alot of moving parts, wise not to completely let our guard down just yet.agreed ...too many people saying we are out of woods ..not soo fast ..lets see what models show by tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 6z GFS still takes it very close the the jersy shore before heading ne and ots!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Both the 0z UKMET and the 6z GFS broke to what the Euro had been showing all along. This is what usually happens when the Euro locks onto a solution and doesn't wavier. It's amazing. When the Euro didn't flip at 12z yesterday, I had a feeling that the other models would start to move to its solution. Not over yet, but looks like Euro has the right idea. When the storm went much further SW (and delayed a move north), plus the monster intensity of the storm everything changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I Wouldnt call it quits yet. Wait until tonights 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin is drifting and is modeled to continue to do so on the GFS and ECMWF. That gives time for the ridge to move sufficiently far off eastern Canada to allow a weakness between ridges to become available to allow it to avoid landfall. It is separated/cut off from the flow , it is alone waiting for a hook up. Don , it is amazing that this would be pulled out by the weaker trough to the east like the ( Euro UKIE GFS ) now all see . It would be an amazing win for the Euro . And DT ( cough , cough ) . The stronger NEG tilted trough coming into the SE misses this on the guidance and just can`t tug it west fast enough before the tug east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFDL takes it to Delmarva FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Most of the individual Euro ensemble members are ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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