Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 12Z GGEM was near ILM. New run near HAT. That's a shift north. Euro will be telling. Yea but you have the Ukie ots, the gfs in NJ, and the GGEM down in NC with the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS tracks 00z, 12z, 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hikingfool85 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yea but you have the Ukie ots, the gfs in NJ, and the GGEM down in NC with the GEFS mean. That still leaves NHS in a pickle...no consensus still right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not a good map reader but looking at doormans posted map wouldn't the high sliding down to nova Scotia prevent storm from going OTS and push it left with a more northerly hit than OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 That still leaves NHS in a pickle...no consensus still right? Actually, depending on what the Euro does, the NHC's cone looks pretty damn spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 For fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Actually, depending on what the Euro does, the NHC's cone looks pretty damn spot on. Except no model shows that. I don't blame them for their cone though. I'd split the uprights too if I were them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF landfalls near Wilmington NC 937mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Pam's/AG3's French model is in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The UKMET was actually very close to a GFS solution, just didn't quite make it and eventually stalled and lifted NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not a good map reader but looking at doormans posted map wouldn't the high sliding down to nova Scotia prevent storm from going OTS and push it left with a more northerly hit than OBX NK good obs real GOOD the OPC surface maps are MONEY!!!! and yes... they will update the scenarios 500mb outlook shows trough capture of our cane also just like the weenies dream of for our winter blitzes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFDL hits the outer banks hard. 930's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The GFDL hits the outer banks hard. 930's Then moves it hard northwest.. Richmond/DC hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ripped from the Mid-Atlantic subforum. I guess we toss the gfs. NWS MDD HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY 2 SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 170 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PER THE NHC 03Z ADVISORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING ITS SLOW MOTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NHC TRACK SHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENING ON ITS NORTHWARD APPROACH TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE BIGGEST OUTLIER CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF SUITE WITH A TRACK WAY OFFSHORE. THE SOLUTION MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NHC TRACK IS A COMBINATION OF THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN. CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE THE 00Z GFS AS IT TRENDED WELL EAST OF ITS PRECEDING RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Hot off the press 48 hour 500mb guidance look at that central atlantic high pressure area this will be the Wildcard ----IMHO if it holds true any OTS scenario would not gel http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z Euro is still out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHarr Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z Euro is still out to sea. Any shifts east or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any PBP from Iso? Or did he call it a night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Any shifts east or west? Looks slightly more east lol. Night folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z Euro is still out to sea.When the Euro is as consistent as it appears it has been, gotta side with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 When the Euro is as consistent as it appears it has been, gotta side with it. The impact of this up this way is approximately 5 days out ... Meaning when its approaching the area. 5 days out is NOT the euros deadly range.. Not saying its wrong but its better to take a blend of all the guidance... Euro can still shift west it has until 48 hrs and under when its in its deadly range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 On a side note, the euro run isn't over. It might be pulled back very late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The impact of this up this way is approximately 5 days out ... Meaning when its approaching the area. 5 days out is NOT the euros deadly range.. Not saying its wrong but its better to take a blend of all the guidance... Euro can still shift west it has until 48 hrs and under when its in its deadly range.. We're moving into Thursday morning now, so the impact is more like 4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 On a side note, the euro run isn't over. It might be pulled back very late in the game. Very Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Very Interesting Nope. Not this time. Was an interesting solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nope. Not this time. Was an interesting solution though. Interesting enough to pay attention to the next Euro run...well, obviously. I'm not sure this things wrapped up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nope. Not this time. Was an interesting solution though. Almost pulled it off . Ensembles should be interesting. These models are all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is far from over i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is far from over i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro came so close to pulling that off. The storm turned NW at hr 108 and continued to hr 120 before pulling back to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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