RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Its tough, you get a capture too soon, it goes into the SE, too late you get a EURO solution, JUST IN TIME, 00z GFS. This is probably one of, if not, the hardest type of system for a wx. model to handle. I'm not basing that on facts, just opinion. Anytime you're dealing with a forecast hindering on a phase job between an ULL & a TS, hold your breath Almost a "the stars have to align" scenario. They very well may, for better or for worse. Lets see what the Euro does. Any tick west will have me worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What happens if the euro comes west at all?? Very Scary The Euro almost never makes huge swings in one run, it tends to move gradually when it has an incorrect solution. We saw that with the blizzard this winter. I think we need to see a 75-100 mile shift by the Euro as a whole to think its moving towards the other models. Anything less is noise, anything more is very un Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS 500mb vort for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Euro almost never makes huge swings in one run, it tends to move gradually when it has an incorrect solution. We saw that with the blizzard this winter. I think we need to see a 75-100 mile shift by the Euro as a whole to think its moving towards the other models. Anything less is noise, anything more is very un Euro like. Agreed. Any tick east, might as well start tracking the next one. Any tick west, well, scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GGEM? Even tho it's ridiculous. Just would like to see different model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think you are confusing yourself. The GFS has been WAYYYY SW over the last few runs. This last adjustment was WAYYY N & TOWARDS the EURO solution than any previous run. If anything I wouldn't be shocked to see the EURO adjust farther out to sea, unless that is what you meant.Yeah I meant the gfs is moving towards the Euro and I feel it'll continue to do so.Really embarrassing for the American models again if that's correct. It's a reverse Sandy situation impact wise and the Euro could win both times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metro Devils Fan Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukmet was a whiff sends it into Canada Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukie Looks like ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Ukie Interesting. If we see the Euro stay east tonight and the other models correct east tomorrow, this might end up as a fish after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 OPC 96hr surface map guidance http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 A_96hrsfc (1).gif OPC 96hr surface map guidance http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Doorman, what do you think will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Doorman, what do you think will happen? Model hugging will get people warnings???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Model hugging will get people warnings???? No it won't. You're more than welcome to give your thoughts.Try not to hug models though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 HWRF tanks this to an extreme 919mb in 21 hours. 126 knot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No it won't. You're more than welcome to give your thoughts. Try not to hug models though Ok.. the other NHC blob in the central atlantic is fading out bigtime and not a PLAYER small trends big bends!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At this rate the Euro will landfall at NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What does the GGEM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What does the GGEM show? Out to 66. No landfall yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 GEFS mean well south of the OP into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 FWIW, 00z GGEM looks farther east so far but probably not enough to escape ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Out to 66. No landfall yet. From what I can see the GGEM looks more like the GFS. It may hit the coast further north than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GEFS mean well south of the OP into NC. Which makes it more likely that this wasn't really a cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Which makes it more likely that this wasn't really a cave. The spread looks pretty big to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GGEM goes to OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow. 3 different models showing 3 drastically different solutions. Who would have guessed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Wow. 3 different models showing 3 drastically different solutions. Who would have guessed... LolGlad all the extra data helped narrow the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Glad to see we are one step closing in on one solution tonight haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol Glad all the extra data helped narrow the cone. 12Z GGEM was near ILM. New run near HAT. That's a shift north. Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Lol Glad all the extra data helped narrow the cone. Glad we have military grade recon crafts for this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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