Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Worst case scenario. Not good, but not a 940 mb monster either with that depiction. Still, would be a major problem with the existing erosion issues on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Doormans back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think Isentropic alluded to this, but if the capture takes too long, the upper low could swing south of Joaquin and force it west and then southwest before making landfall. Yes, for a moment I actually thought we might see an unprecedented SW moving East coast landfalling storm. And then I remembered that this entire run is almost unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Let's hope this doesn't happen. Yup, I am rooting against this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lowest pressure is 978 here, Implying weakening. However, wouldn't the closer approach tighten the gradient and cause ver strong winds? I also believe though that the GFS isn't designed to really handle exact pressure and strength of a tropical system. A tropical system that far north will almost always be weakening, but I wouldn't read anything into the pressure readouts on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Verbatim, Joaquin would probably weaken a lot before landfall if it slows down off the NJ coast in colder water, but yeah, that would be devastating to most in this subforum. Goes to show that a whole array of solutions are still on the table, including that kind of track into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not good, but not a 940 mb monster either with that depiction. Still, would be a major problem with the existing erosion issues on the beaches.I wouldn't focus on pressure too much, especially with a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 To me, this is a trend run. Basically, we have the King EURO in one corner with its way out to sea prediction, and then suddenly you see the GFS make a giant jump towards it. While doing so it shows a direct hit. Not ruling it out, but wouldn't get too excited yet. I'm an extreme wx. fan so I hope something like this does happen, but I highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Worst case scenario, should landfall near Southern NJUnfortunately this has been my thinking all along. This is not an I told you so, this is an, synoptically it makes tremendous sense. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 And that was after nearly every single 18z GEFS member landfalled into the Carolina coast. I hope everyone now realizes how liquid this entire setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Not good, but not a 940 mb monster either with that depiction. Still, would be a major problem with the existing erosion issues on the beaches. The SLP is 943-945mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 According to JB on Twitter "GFS Scary Sandy scenario may simply be model starting its adjustment to ECMWF escape idea... no need to panic.. yet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Verbatim, Joaquin would probably weaken a lot before landfall if it slows down off the NJ coast in colder water, but yeah, that would be devastating to most in this subforum. Goes to show that a whole array of solutions are still on the table, including that kind of track into NJ. The beach erosion that would occur from Virginia Beach to Cape Cod would be nearly unprecedented I would think with that scenario. I don't really know if the coastline can handle another Sandy level event without losing large swaths of coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's important not to focus on rainfall totals or any other details for that matter. I still refer back to my long winded earlier post with regards to an initial jog NE and then eventual capture. This is also the first run with the new data from earlier today. We will see what the rest of the suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The SLP is 943-945mb. Just wow. Where exactly does it landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS doesn't seem to have it making landfall in NJ. It stalls it offshore briefly, then turns it NNE into Long Island and New England. The NJ coast and Long Island are buffeted for more than 12 hours with strong tropical storm and hurricane force winds. The wind core looks to be fairly tight near the center, implying it doesn't really turn hybrid. I guess a saving grace for surge impacts on the NJ coast and NY Harbor is that winds stay northerly. The bad surge zone on this run verbatim would be the eastern half of Long Island. Edit: Looking at the 500mb charts, there's no phase and turn hybrid, the upper low dampens out and goes around Joaquin. That explains the tight wind field and core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the euro has to adjust west tonight or this is probably the beginning of a cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The SLP is 943-945mb. Ah, well that's a different matter entirely. Lower res depiction had me thinking otherwise. Troubling, but track far from etched in stone as yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 According to JB on Twitter "GFS Scary Sandy scenario may simply be model starting its adjustment to ECMWF escape idea... no need to panic.. yet" I think the NE jog has some merit. But I also don't believe it does anything more than delay the eventual inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Verbatim, Joaquin would probably weaken a lot before landfall if it slows down off the NJ coast in colder water, but yeah, that would be devastating to most in this subforum. Goes to show that a whole array of solutions are still on the table, including that kind of track into NJ. People need to realize this is not going to be a semi polar low warm seclusion deal in all likelihood. This is probably a Belle or Irene deal if the GFS verbatim is correct. It would still suck but it probably is not going to be devastating if it unfolded in that exact manner. This will be way more a pure tropical system than Sandy was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 According to JB on Twitter "GFS Scary Sandy scenario may simply be model starting its adjustment to ECMWF escape idea... no need to panic.. yet" This is EXACTLY what I just said if you read above. Yeah, we may all be going crazy over this run, when in reality it is likely just the expected jump towards the EURO that we were waiting for. Not ruling it out of course, but unless I see the EURO show anything like this, it is grains of sands on the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Copious amounts of rain for the area on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This is EXACTLY what I just said if you read above. Yeah, we may all be going crazy over this run, when in reality it is likely just the expected jump towards the EURO that we were waiting for. Not ruling it out of course, but unless I see the EURO show anything like this, it is grains of sands on the beach. We still have a setup for a storm, unfortunately. This storm should get captured. Maybe not landfall, but a close to shore solution seems possible. I expect the Euro to tick west slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the euro has to adjust west tonight or this is probably the beginning of a cave WINNER. I expected people to go nuts on this run, but it is simply just a standard trend to the EURO. Seen it all my life. NOW, if tonight the EURO shows something even remotely close to this, then it will get my attention, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 the euro has to adjust west tonight or this is probably the beginning of a cave I think it'll be a cave, that's a huge adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Gut feeling is this is headed towards the euro solution. Usually takes the gfs few runs to get in line with the euro. We have started the beginning of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 We still have a setup for a storm, unfortunately. This storm should get captured. Maybe not landfall, but a close to shore solution seems possible. I expect the Euro to tick west slightly. Its tough, you get a capture too soon, it goes into the SE, too late you get a EURO solution, JUST IN TIME, 00z GFS. This is probably one of, if not, the hardest type of system for a wx. model to handle. I'm not basing that on facts, just opinion. Anytime you're dealing with a forecast hindering on a phase job between an ULL & a TS, hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What happens if the euro comes west at all?? Very Scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think it'll be a cave, that's a huge adjustment. I think you are confusing yourself. The GFS has been WAYYYY SW over the last few runs. This last adjustment was WAYYY N & TOWARDS the EURO solution than any previous run. If anything I wouldn't be shocked to see the EURO adjust farther out to sea, unless that is what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think you are confusing yourself. The GFS has been WAYYYY SW over the last few runs. This last adjustment was WAYYY N & TOWARDS the EURO solution than any previous run. If anything I wouldn't be shocked to see the EURO adjust farther out to sea, unless that is what you meant.Fun night of model watching ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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