SnowDemon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost all are into the Carolinas. Not a dart. That's such an exact measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes because the Carolina coast line isn't hundreds of miles long. And also because a landfall near Charleston would be the same as near OBX. Considering the amount of time left, the spread isn't so big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Considering the amount of time left, the spread isn't so big. Here are the 18z GEFS ensembles. Not a single member is OTS and the spread is over a 1000 miles long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here are the 18z GEFS ensembles. Not a single member is OTS and the spread is over a 1000 miles long. One member doesn't make a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Considering the amount of time left, the spread isn't so big. But a landfall in South Jersey would lead to very different impacts than one in the Outer Banks. The former could be worse than Sandy, since SSTs are warmer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 One member doesn't make a spread. It's irrelevant because we have to compensate for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's irrelevant because we have to compensate for the Euro.Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Huh? You will understand at 0z. There is no way the Euro could be that far off the mark this close in and its entire EPS suite is east of the GFS for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 You will understand at 0z. There is no way the Euro could be that far off the mark this close in.It doesn't have to be that far off to have a different solution. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it shows a NC landfall at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It doesn't have to be that far off to have a different solution. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it shows a NC landfall at 0z. This is true, the upper level features are sensitive. I expect a compromise between the GFS/Euro. No it's not going OTS, lol. The pattern locked this dood in a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Going to be a interesting day tomorrow. Throw your dart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Going to be a interesting day tomorrow. Throw your dart.image.jpg I always found it interesting when there's that one model that is completely different from the others. That purple one goes way up and over away from the cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM has it going to NC. We should start seeing consensus soon. Seems like it will go south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM has it going to NC. Nobody cared what it said earlier. Still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM has it going to NC. We should start seeing consensus soon. Seems like it will go south of us. Nam is still out of range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NAM has it going to NC. We should start seeing consensus soon. Seems like it will go south of us. Wait for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Although the NAM's track might not be all that important, that it moved toward the cluster of guidance favoring landfall might be meaningful. From the NHC's 11 pm discussion: The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models, hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance. Obviously, we'll have to wait to see what the remainder of the global models, especially the ECMWF, show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some posters here seem to have a lot of confidence on Joaquin's future path. Be very carefull some people will eat those words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Some posters here seem to have a lot of confidence on Joaquin's future path. Be very carefull some people will eat those words.NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1....Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1.... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A I share your concerns. I was referring to the people model hugging the storm and saying it will either make landfall in SC/NC or go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 NHC is expecting a pretty due north progress, which doesn't seem all that unreasonable. I don't see this thing making a left hook when it's still poised to be a cat 3/4 hurricane. A 100 mile shift east and this is easily running into the Chesapeake. Furthermore a shift like that could easily allow it run up to coast of DE and NJ before finally taking a complete hook into land. This is a very dangerous situation and the entire east coast, including the NYC metro needs to watch this very carefully. This could make Sandy the #2 storm and Joaquin #1.... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A I agree that a stronger storm could track further north, but all the models are clustered south of us, with a few OTS. There's almost no guidance that shows a landfall anywhere north of VA. So it seems unlikely that this would rival Sandy, though not impossible. I think the NHC cone is the result of the compromise between the GFS/tropical models and the ECM; but in reality, it's more likely to be one solution or the other. Either the Fujiwara effect from IDA overpowers everything and it goes OTS, or it curves inland and hits NC or VA. In some ways, the NHC track is deceiving because they really expect either the Euro or the GFS, not something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS 00z initialized Hurricane Joaquin at 965 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I agree that a stronger storm could track further north, but all the models are clustered south of us, with a few OTS. There's almost no guidance that shows a landfall anywhere north of VA. So it seems unlikely that this would rival Sandy, though not impossible. I think the NHC cone is the result of the compromise between the GFS/tropical models and the ECM; but in reality, it's more likely to be one solution or the other. Either the Fujiwara effect from IDA overpowers everything and it goes OTS, or it curves inland and hits NC or VA. In some ways, the NHC track is deceiving because they really expect either the Euro or the GFS, not something in between. It's almost like they have most of their trust in the GFS but knowing the track record of the Euro are hesitant to proclaim it off its rocker... or maybe they are anticipating the rest of the models caving due east. Who knows. They are pro mets and know more then most of us here do. Not just feeling out models verbatim ... One things for sure, I wouldn't want to be a forecaster at NHC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Big differences on GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Reading on Twitter that it's tracking 100 miles east of previous run at hour 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 GFS just joined team EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 At 72 hr Joaquin is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There it goes. Big coup for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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