IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 About 50-75 miles NE of the 12z position Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely going to make landfall further north Really? Interesting. The news around here keeps pushing a more southern landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks like landfall occurs very close to OBX early morning hours on Sunday. Very close to the NHC position for 2PM Sunday. The only difference is that the track starts out further SE and then hooks more Westerly once reaching that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The wind field is extremely large. 10m winds to tropical storm force stretch all the way up to Cape Cod on Sunday. Strong winds make it fairly far inland into VA, MD, DE, NJ and coastal NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So a couple hundred miles more north this run. This will still change many many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 First run further north than previous runs since yesterday. Tropical Storm winds still reach NYC as noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That high to the North is perfectly positioned to compress the isobars as the system unravels over VA. We get in on some steadier rains too associated with the outer bands and then as the whole system is absorbed by the 500mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There is a few hundred J/KG of CAPE around too. We would be in the outer bands in the NE Quadrant of a landfalling cane. Obviously other factors in play but a tornado or two seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Sunday and Monday are pretty much washouts as well. The center rots over VA, NJ and then off the coast. Roughly 2-4" of rain between the PRE, landfall and then ULL remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Things get very interesting up here if you jog it North another 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 That's such a long period gale for the beaches on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Eye now visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Recon just recorded 949.3 mb at eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 There's that eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Now a cat 2 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Talk about explosive intensifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well throw a dart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The 18z GFS ensemble mean still has 3-5" of rain for the area. Anytime you see an ensemble mean that wet it's usually a good sign things are going to perform or even overperform in the rain department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can the models really keep changing the overall track like this every time? How much further south can these things go?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well throw a dart lol, west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lol, west trend. Not really much more West than 18z. If anything the spread increased in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From what I understand wouldn't a stronger hurricane pull it North, instead of the hurricane getting yanked West so early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Kind of amazing to still have so much discrepancy with many models showing landfall in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 From what I understand wouldn't a stronger hurricane pull it North, instead of the hurricane getting yanked West so early? Speaking from history? Yes. Speaking from current model guidance...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Can the models really keep changing the overall track like this every time? How much further south can these things go?! I'm spending some time in Ft. Lauderdale... wouldn't suck if it here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well throw a dart Meanwhile at local NWS Offices along the East Coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Might as well throw a dart Almost all are into the Carolinas. Not a dart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Almost all are into the Carolinas. Not a dart. Yes because the Carolina coast line isn't hundreds of miles long. And also because a landfall near Charleston would be the same as near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 What are the Chances it goes basically west then does loop de loop back out to sea and up coast.... I wanna say Floyd did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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