IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Take your pick Thank you for posting. Just confirms why declaring one solution correct at this point is so premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 WPC has much of northern NJ dry through 00 UTC Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM is a washout for Friday. Strong mid-level forcing associated with the retrograding front and moisture transport out of the south, southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 WPC has much of northern NJ dry through 00 UTC Friday. This break has been pretty well modeled. Heavy rains last night into this morning, then showers today before the rains push back in around dark tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This rain would then be over the weekend associated with the remnants. Final 7 day totals still impressive and would cause some flooding if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's still early, but the 18z NAM has an out-to-sea scenario. Such an outcome can't be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 It's still early, but the 18z NAM has an out-to-sea scenario. Such an outcome can't be dismissed. The previous run was more OTS, just playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The NAM initialized this as a weak TS, poor excuse of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 AF309 Mission #05 into JOAQUIN Type: Unknown | Status: En Route As of 21:01 UTC Sep 30, 2015: Aircraft Position: 27.90°N 85.42°W Bearing: 90° at 318 kt Altitude: 7383 gpm Peak 10-second Wind: 44 kt at 232° Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Comparing from 0z- 18z, the global and hurricane models, while yes there showing west jog, there clustering has been, well up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I missed where he made a forecast, let alone used the NAM to make one. He said the NAM shows an OTS scenario (which it does) and an OTS outcome can't be dismissed (which it can't). lol man , you beat me to it . This was Sandy 4 days out . I think this one should strike the US , but am I sure of course not . The models are struggling as to which trough this will get tugged towards . All options are on the table no matter which way one is leanings . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gefs, have also been interesting comparing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 11L_tracks_00z.png 11L_tracks_06z.png11L_tracks_12z.png11L_tracks_18z.png Gefs, have also been interesting comparing. If you cut out the outliers on either side it becomes a pretty easy forecasted track with landfall near the VA/NC border. As noted in my long winded post earlier, I still feel that is the most likely scenario. I also wouldn't be shocked if the GFS or GGEM sent the system into Florida tonight with the way things have been going. If we didn't have model mayhem we would have nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Though I must ask, what's OFCI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Though I must ask, what's OFCI? The official NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The previous run was more OTS, just playing catch up. The NAM isn't very good at forecasting tropical cyclones. I would like to see guidance, even the NAM, begin to shift to clarify the picture. I wasn't making a forecast or implying one. But with respect to such ideas, right now, my thoughts are that the two clusters of tracks (GFS/GEFS and ECWMF/EPS to keep things simple) provide the most reasonable scenarios in a highly uncertain setup. I'm not sure about a compromise idea given the complexity of what has to unfold (either cluster is probably much more likely than a compromise track between those clusters). I personally think the landfall idea has somewhat more merit, but cannot dismiss the ECMWF at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Though I must ask, what's OFCI? NHC Interpolated 6 hours ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Where ever he makes landfall, I think we see a hook to the NE fairly quickly thus effecting most of the area with TS force winds as we will be in the right quadrant in a addition to a rapidly expanding wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Better hope so. This is giving the NWS offices fits. From Greenville-Spartanburg NWS "...IT IS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...00Z SATURDAY...THAT THE WHEELS MAY FLY OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY...AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WIDENS QUICKLY. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS TOWARD AN ALL TIME LOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EVENT THAT IS MORE THAN 72H OUT. THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY TO PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ITS TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND...EVENTUALLY LOOPING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD BE WISE TO DOWNPLAY THIS IN FAVOR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING...." This animation says it all... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/649319199702167553 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Virtually zero changes on the 18z GFS through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Just a slight increase to the negative tilt at 18z Friday but more or less just noise differences so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Now come Friday afternoon the vorticy associated with IDA is starting to come into the picture. It does appear to be a bit stronger than 12z but not significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The pre makes significantly more westward progress this run thanks to the quicker negative tilt. If we can avoid interaction with IDA it may push the track further North due to a more progressive trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Capture at hour 63 with IDA's vorticy nearbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 At 12z Saturday the position is just a tick southeast of the 12z GFS position. You can see it interacting with the energy from IDA but also the ULL over the Gulf states. What a tremendously volatile situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Despite the NC landfall, the GFS still shows tropical storm force winds for NYC. During its extratropical transition, Joaquin's wind field expands dramatically, especially on the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Everything is just a tick East here, landfall should occur further North than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Pre-mature guess says that the landfall location is extremely close to the 5PM NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Definitely going to make landfall further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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