IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 What a whacked out run. The ULL is trying to hold onto it and the ridge the North is trying to slide overhead. The ULL winds are Easterly and Joaquin is moving very slowly Northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I wouldn't take the QPF totals from the PRE seriously. We all saw how terrible the models were last night. Just get the coastal front in place and let the waterfall commence. If it slides out to sea, do we still get a rain event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If it slides out to sea, do we still get a rain event? The Euro still shows 1-3" with the PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 EURO is southwest of Bermuda at 120hrs. EURO is at our latitude at 168hrs--- but 750+miles away to the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 This might have had a chance of boomeranging back towards the coast in a Sandy like manner if the ULL over the SE didn't fill and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Gonzo day 6 as it finds a weakness in the ridging. This is all part of the fun. If we had solid agreement at this range it wouldn't be half as exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 So either the Euro is God and the other models complete trash or the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Even with a NC landfall, this thing looks like it will hang around the Mid-Atlantic for a while. Flooding could be the big story with Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy785 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Similar model war last winter when Euro was on its own burying NYC in 3 feet of snow even after all the other models trended to a less snowy solution. This time it's the opposite as the euro is alone against a major impactful event. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Similar model war last winter when Euro was on its own burying NYC in 3 feet of snow even after all the other models trended to a less snowy solution. This time it's the opposite as the euro is alone against a major impactful event. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.Honestly, the way I see it, this is either a Mid NJ hit or OTS. IsentropicLift pointed out correctly that had the ULL not weakened, this would have gone right back towards the coast. A complication now will also be what the remnants of Ida do. Should they reorganize, this presents a whole other set of complications and complexities for forecasting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 will be interesting to see if anything moves towards the Euro in the next 12-24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 will be interesting to see if anything moves towards the Euro in the next 12-24 hrs. Or maybe the Euro has become a tad bit overrated since Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I think the models are gonna correct towards a landfall somewhere in DelMarVa... cant see the capture happening that quickly and pulling it west. More natural would be a jog north from where the models currently are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Well this is a pretty far shift West. Any further West and those in Florida may end up having to worry about a storm they never thought was even remotely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 I've considered all available guidance and barring a major shift in the 500mb pattern I feel that the final solution ends up splitting the goal posts, not all that dissimilar from the current NHC track. The GFS as well as the rest of the guidance completely ignores the vorticy associated with the remnants of Ida without any sort of Fujiwara effect. If you compare the 500mb vorticy maps they are almost identical, except for that slight shift Eastward due to the Fujiwara that occurs on the Euro and allows it to get just far enough East to escape capture. I'll take the middle of the road scenario which some of the tropical models have shown which is a slight NE jog on day 3 before the ULL digs in and ultimately captures the system. At that point, the mid-level steering pattern would be aligned in such a position that it would just be a matter of where as opposed to if Joaquin will landfall. You can see how the GFS captures the system here at 72 hours and it's game, set, match. I will go with a later capture due to the slight initial jog northeast and as a result the system would landfall further North than the current consensus. Gun to my head, somewhere between OBX and VA Beach. What about impacts for our region? Besides the PRE there should be a good amount of tropical moisture associated with Joaquin not only at the time of landfall but as the ULL ultimately comes North slowly. There should be a fair amount of subsidence around to the North over New England thanks to the impressive high pressure system over Quebec. You're going to flatten out and compress the isobars so I am expecting winds to be quite gusty. In addition, the system should begin interacting with the trough and the combination of that along with cooler SST should begin extra-tropical transition around 35N. We may see a large expansion of the wind field thanks to the natural unraveling that these systems tend to incur, which will only compress the isobars even more further North. I made a post earlier about this wind threat in a different sub-forum. I could see a setup similar to Sandy where the winds at landfall are relatively mundane as compared to a few hundred miles North of the center. Now that doesn't mean I am expecting hurricane force winds up here, but I certainly think a pro-longed period of gales is possible. The affects of that will be most felt at the beaches where the Easterly fetch will persist for more than 72 hours. Finally, as the remnants move Northward slowly late in the weekend, we should be in a prime position for whatever tropical moisture is leftover, which will be aided not only by the ULL but also the easterly feed off the ocean. This is obviously a very difficult forecast as you would almost have to start issuing the first preparations tonight, and you have one of the best models in the world taking the system over 500 miles offshore. I don't envy the mets at the NHC or the local NWS offices. Pretty much everything is on the table from a direct hurricane impact to torrential flooding rains to more or less nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Excellent discussion. I'm more with the euro on the OTS scenario. I think the further S movement is correct and that causes it to be too far south and thus it misses the trough. Time will tell of course but there's almost a due south component on visible. Another 48 hours of this moving SSW at 6mph and it's 300 miles further south. - edit: most of the EPS members are taking this out to sea. A few recurve back to the mid Altantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 the EPS jumped way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes, the EPS mean is East of the 00z run. Going off the mean alone and not being able to see the individuals, it would appear the largest clustering is West of the OP but East of the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yes, the EPS mean is East of the 00z run. Going off the mean alone and not being able to see the individuals, it would appear the largest clustering is West of the OP but East of the model consensus. The individuals are all over the map...literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Yeah alot of ensembles are out to sea but a good amount is also hitting the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The individuals are all over the map...literally. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Several 18z soundings were launched to help resolve synoptic features that could influence the track of #Joaquin. Several 18z soundings were launched to help resolve synoptic features that could influence the track of #Joaquin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Upton waves the white flag "SUN AND MON WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THIS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The individuals are all over the map...literally. Models really struggle with different solutions when hurricanes slow down or make SW dips. They should converge on a similar solution by Friday once this starts to increase forward motion again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Models really struggle with different solutions when hurricanes slow down or make SW dips. They should converge on a similar solution by Friday once this starts to increase forward motion again. Better hope so. This is giving the NWS offices fits. From Greenville-Spartanburg NWS "...IT IS FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...00Z SATURDAY...THAT THE WHEELS MAY FLY OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY...AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WIDENS QUICKLY. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE PLUMMETS TOWARD AN ALL TIME LOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EVENT THAT IS MORE THAN 72H OUT. THERE MIGHT BE A TENDENCY TO PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS WITH ITS TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND...EVENTUALLY LOOPING OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT OVER THE WEEKEND. IT WOULD BE WISE TO DOWNPLAY THIS IN FAVOR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR THE TIME BEING...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 18z NAM really brings in the rains tomorrow night, although I don't now how useful it can be when it barely has a surface reflection for a 968mb hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 The 18z NAM really brings in the rains tomorrow night, although I don't now how useful it can be when it barely has a surface reflection for a 968mb hurricane. Amazing ain't it? Although our rains are more from the coastal front backing west so this issue doesnt matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2wheelin Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 OT Can some explain how the Control, Operational and the Ensemble tracks are determined from the 51 tracks? It seems like the "mean" average has it hitting LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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