Tom Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro @48 starts to move N then @66 NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Hour 72, we enter dry slot PRE rains well inland. Storm starting to drift east. Further SW than 00z at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro held serve OTS. shifted west a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is either going to score a major win OR have an epic fail with its ots scenario. Right back where we left off in March ✌ Winter should be fun this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Euro is either going to score a major win OR have an epic fail with its ots scenario. Right back where we left off in March ✌ Winter should be fun this year! Or we see it slowly shift west to a semi-agreement with the other models. The next 24-48 hours will be very interesting/telling where this thing sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Or we see it slowly shift west to a semi-agreement with the other models. The next 24-48 hours will be very interesting/telling where this thing sets up.Even if it eventually shifts West like every other model then it still crapped the bed with Joaquin imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Even if it eventually shifts West like every other model then it still crapped the bed with Joaquin imho. Totally agreed at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 Even if it eventually shifts West like every other model then it still crapped the bed with Joaquin imho. How were the ensembles compared to the op on today's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 If the western scenario pans out, here's a model depiction of possible storm surge Saturday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 30, 2015 Share Posted September 30, 2015 lot more pre Joaq rain pending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Saw Dr. Masters on TWC about 45 min. ago. As of then he is going with the euro's OTS solution. His reasoning was that the ensemble members that have correctly shown the current path are all out OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Saw Dr. Masters on TWC about 45 min. ago. As of then he is going with the euro's OTS solution. His reasoning was that the ensemble members that have correctly shown the current path are all out OTS. He gave that same report on NBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin may very well be a category 3 hurricane at 11 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 here is a nice image http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-72.45,33.48,1059 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFS loltastic change of course. All hail to the king? Tune in at 2:15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFS is Sandy II for NJ/NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 0z GFS is Sandy II for NJ/NY.. This run brings it in kisses Sandy Hook and says tag your it and slowly drifts NE. Fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 And GGEM goes into NC. Literally no agreement whatsoever again tonight lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes but the GGEM is meaningless and asking the Euro to cave is a tall order odds have certainly shifted for out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yes but the GGEM is meaningless and asking the Euro to cave is a tall order odds have certainly shifted for out to sea. Any Euro correction westwardly would be enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro east, back to tracking the nino and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro east, back to tracking the nino and winter. It's really not east, and actually tries to regain the coastal capture late in its run. A bit different from 12z actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's really not east, and actually tries to regain the coastal capture late in its run. A bit different from 12z actually.It is east. The previous run tried to capture as well. Go look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 lol. Just saw this. ummm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Remember that time in late January when the euro gave us 3 ft of snow and was the outlier the entire time. It really nailed that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Joaquin on the 6z GFS doesn't make landfall until the Canadian Maritimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Remember that time in late January when the euro gave us 3 ft of snow and was the outlier the entire time. It really nailed that one... Yeah...but I think it may have nailed this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Remember that time in late January when the euro gave us 3 ft of snow and was the outlier the entire time. It really nailed that one... Assuming the GFS cave is correct (the storm is still in the Bahamas, after all), it would seem the EC has a certain gift for Tropical/non-Tropical interactions which the other guidance is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nothing is set in stone yet guys. The 6z spaghetti plots are all over from a SC landfall to a Bermuda landfall. If anything the track now has significantly more spread than yesterday. It is an extremely volatile forecast. There is just as good a chance this makes landfall as a potent hurricane somewhere along the NJ coast as there is of Joaquin going out to sea. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Nothing is set in stone yet guys. The 6z spaghetti plots are all over from a SC landfall to a Bermuda landfall. If anything the track now has significantly more spread than yesterday. It is an extremely volatile forecast. There is just as good a chance this makes landfall as a potent hurricane somewhere along the NJ coast as there is of Joaquin going out to sea. Sent from my LG-V410 I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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