jrodd321 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll just leave this image posted by Joe Bastardi right here. Don't even want to imagine what this kind of rain would to do to our area since we've been so dry lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 And 5AM forecast track from NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Both hurricane models with a sharp left hook and a direct hit this morning. UKMET a slow moving monster into the outer banks. EC and GFS show really complex evolution with multiple lows while the CMC is offshore. Another day of model waffling. Ensembles not looking much better either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Also keep in mind Eagles game in DC may be impacted. Looks like only NFL game. College games potentially impacted include Penn State/Army, Pittsburgh/Va Tech, Louisville/NC State, Florida intl/ U Mass, Air Force/ Navy, Boston College/ Duke, Florida State/ Wake Forest, Michigan/Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 One of the more interesting set ups in some time. If that shear relaxes a bit from the north, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joaquin turn into a Cat 1 cane with the warm SST's. I know the hurricane models have a habit of going bonkers on intensity but both the GFDL and HWRF show a significant strike on the jersey coast that would be pretty devastating to the area. Regardless of strength though, this is looking like a major rainmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NHC 11am track reflects a lot of uncertainty, don't put much stock in points or track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 NHC 11am track reflects a lot of uncertainty, don't put much stock in points or track. That track has changed considerably just since 11pm when the storm first was named. This update ticks it slightly northeast. Can that be a plausible scenario, especially since so many have stated that there is no way it goes east due to the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That track has changed considerably just since 11pm when the storm first was named. This update ticks it slightly northeast. Can that be a plausible scenario, especially since so many have stated that there is no way it goes east due to the block? They are averaging all the extreme tracks at this point. The goalposts are a lot larger than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Storm takes a sharp curve back to the coast after the nhc track ends. So say a few of the models anyway. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Thanks Mitch and Wig! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Really pleasant weather Thursday-Friday on GFS 50*F heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 pre-rain tonight/ tomorrow will help prepare the ground from major runoff due to concrete ground if this system hits us, unless we get 6" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 relentless rain through Friday night on GFS from front and tropical moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 relentless rain through Friday night on GFS from front and tropical moisture. Why hasn't Mt. Holly gone with flash flood watches? Still too far out in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Break on Saturday as a new coastal low forms in the Carolina's that then comes up Sunday. Joaquin well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Why hasn't Mt. Holly gone with flash flood watches? Still too far out in advance? Yes, we actually have two separate events. Remember still a good burst of rain tonight and Wednesday to contend with. Right now that looks just northwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS either crapped the bed or is on to something. Takes Joaquin to Bermuda. Still dumps alot of moisture in the East but doesnt appear directly related to Joaquin. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll be on the weather channel at 2pm if anyone needs something to watch on TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 CMC=direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 55 MPH 994 MB on first pass for recon. strengthening despite the shear overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh great Verizon no longer carries the weather channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh my heavy rain here in Media... finally I forget what rain looks like. The Deluge has begun!! Joaquin must be watched very closely.... blocking in the Atlantic could really make this interesting especially from a flooding standpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Oh great Verizon no longer carries the weather channel This will be pretty much what a talk about. http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This will be pretty much what a talk about. http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Informative breakdown I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll be on the weather channel at 2pm if anyone needs something to watch on TV. First time I've turned on TWC in years lol....very informative . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z ECM takes the boring out to sea route again. Meh hope not that way still a myriad of solutions possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z ECM takes the boring out to sea route again. Meh hope not that way still a myriad of solutions possible. It's all about phasing whatever coastal low forms and the tropical system. More model nightmares still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'll be on the weather channel at 2pm if anyone needs something to watch on TV. Nice job dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nice job dude. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Two solid camps in the 12z GEFS one group phases like the CMC the other is more like the 12z op EC. Looks 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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